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WESTCHESTER HOSPITALS  LAST 7 DAYS. 38% OF REPORTED ADMISSIONS POSITIVE FOR COVID AFTER ADMISSION. CONSISTENT FIRST 3 WEEKS OF JANUARY

WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Data from New York State Hospitalizations Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey. January 26, 2023:

Hospitalizations for treatment of covid reached 391 persons in the 7 days from January 17 to January 23. In Westchester.

My findings are based on  the numbers of persons admitted to 9  key Westchester hospitals the last 7 days  in the county.  

WPCNR has observed that 38% of persons coming to these hospitals for treatment are testing positive for covid after being officially admitted. 

 9 COUNTY HOSPITALS REPORTED  471 PATIENTS HAD COVID AFTER PATIENTS ADMITTED IN 1 WEEK

White Plains Hospital Center Jan. 17 to 23:  100  Covid Positves in 188 Patients Admitted.(53%)

Westchester Medical Center   ( Jan 17^th-24)  54 Covid Positives Found in 336 Patients admitted. (24%)

New Rochelle (Sound Shore): 47 Covid Positives Found in 102 Patients admitted.(46%)

Hudson Valley Hospital: 51 Covid Positives Found in 82 Patients Admitted (62%)

Northern Westchester Hosp(Mt. Kisco):  33 Positives Found in 69 Patients Admitted (48%)

Lawrence Hospital (Bronxville): 15 Positives Found in 105 Patients Admitted. (14%)

Mount Vernon: 6 Positives Found in 52 Patients Admitted. (12%)

St Joseph, Yonkers:  8 Positives Found in 24 Patients Admitted.33%

St. Johns Riverside, Yonkers: 115 Positives Found in 201 Patients Admitted (57%)

 IN THE LAST 7 DAYS ENDING MONDAY THESE HOSPITALS REPORTED 1,246 PATIENTS ADMITTED WITH 471 FOUND TO BE POSITIVE FOR COVID (38%)

The last the county announced the number of hospitalizations about 2 weeks ago they said it was 286 hospitalizations. LAST WEEK NEW COVID HOSPITALZATIONS FOUND AMONG THOSE ADMITTED WENT UP 60%

What  do I make of this?

1. There a lot of persons who are carrying the Covid-19 around and do not know they have it. And may think it isn’t covid.
2. There are  those who tested positive with an at home test and did not have it lab-verified for whatever reason (keeping on the job, for example. And they have gotten sick enough to go into the hospital.
3. Or think it is the flu, and go to the hospital.
4. Or they may be admitted and found to be positive for covid when they had tested not positive previously.
5. Did not have the  full range of covid shots including the booster and they have gotten covid.
6. From what I saw seeing the demographics of the infections the people testing positive are from 25 to 65 and the majority 65 and up.

If you take hospitalizations in Westchester for the first three weeks in January since December 30, the picture of how much the disease is spreading is quite different than the official statistics. Way higher.

In Westchester County, the last three weeks we have seen Covid Tracker reports  showing the county containing covid, 1,896 cases January  1-7; 1,520 cases, Jan 8-14; and 1,441 Jan 15-21.

In the first four days of this week there have been 542 new lab-verified cases of covid –under 180 a day.

The hospitalizations this week may mean the lack of testing is failing to give a true picture of the rate the disease is spreading.

I will have to wait and see how this week plays out to see if the downward trend continues, and these new hospitalizations are just a warning to be careful. It’s out there still.

41% OF 3,117 NEW ADMISSIONS IN 9 WESTCHESTER HOSPITALS DISCOVERED POSITIVE WITH COVID AFTER ADMISSION. TOTAL FOUND POSITIVE OF THE ADMITTED– 1,292. THREE WEEKS OF JANUARY

WHITE PLAINS HOSPITAL  had 691 new admissions from December 30 to January 17 and 414 Tested positive for covid, 53% of admissions.

WESTCHESTER MEDICAL CENTER admitted 1,005 new admissions. 250 Tested positive for Covid after admission (25%)

NEW ROCHELLE HOSPITAL admitted 191 patients, 89 were found with Covid . (47%)

HUDSON VALLEY HOSPITAL  admitted 194 patients; 97 were positive for covid. (50%)

NORTHERN WESTCHESTER MT. KISCO admitted 144; 67 found with covid (47%)

LAWRENCE HOSPITAL (BRONXVILLE)  admitted 315 in 3 weeks. 75 were found covid positive (25%)

MOUNT VERNON admitted 103 and 17 were found with covid – 17%

ST JOSEPHS (Yonkers)  admitted 54 patients—19 were found covid positive—35%

RIVERSIDE (Yonkers) admitted  420 in 3 weeks. 264 were positive for covid, 63%

The trend of percentages of new covid patients being found after admission appears consistent the entire 3 weeks of January. The 1,292 infections for the three weeks is not at all close to the 5,399 new cases of covid the county experienced the last 25 days in the county, which means the disease is less severe, or it may be just beginning to stress the hospitals. But a third to 40% of all county admissions in a month covid positive? Is the covid not as serious as we have been told, or are the covid effects just as profound as in the past?

Keep being wary.

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WPCNR THE LETTER TICKER. January 25, 2023:

 Below is some important information pertaining to the Special Meeting of the White Plains Planning Board on February 7th, 2023 regarding the Farrell Estates project in Gedney Farms.

The meeting will take place from 7-9pm at City Hall, 255 Main Street. 

 Large developments in our neighboring south end communities have the potential to negatively impact traffic patterns, potential environmental impacts regarding water run-off and drainage that flow south, the future development of 330 West St., as well as the old Windward property on Windward Ave. 

The RRA (Rosedale Residential Association) wants to ensure the city informs us on how this new development may impact the safety and character of our neighborhood.  If you are interested in these potential impacts, please review the below Farrell Estates application.

Farrell Estates at Ridgeway: Farrell Subdivision & Site Plan Application

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WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from New York State Covid Tracker. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. January 23, 2023:

Westchester completed its third straight week of preventing covid from spreading saturday.

The county reported 1,441 new covid cases for the 7 days Sunday January 15 through Saturday January 21. The county is reported  as having an infection rate of 10% on 14,809 lab verified tests for 1,441 new cases for the week.

Considering it takes two weeks to measure how persons are catching the disease from new positives and given the fast infection rate of the new XBB.1.5 variant (2 days) the 1,896 infections at the end the week January 8, infected 1,441 new persons, meaning one new case infected 1.5 persons the last two weeks.

Or if you want to be more positive about the infection rate, figure  that the XBB.1.5. variant  you could take heart that 1 person was only infecting 1 to ½ a person over the two weeks ended Saturday night.   The  XBB.1.5 variant was just starting to the New York area big time two weeks ago. 

Last week’s stat of 1,520 (Jan 8 to 14) divided by new infections two weeks ago (1,896) would mean that the XBB.1.5. variant emerging on the New York area roughly January 8 to 14, saw 1 new infection only infect 1.2 people.

Now two weeks later the new infection is rate is 1.5% or one person is infecting just ½ a person.

If the state, and Westchester County Health Departments give us their accurate infection rate figured by the data they have (in more detail), we might know whether the XBB.1.5. variant is being contained as it appears the last three weeks.

You have only yours truly who is trying to keep track of this and of course, YOUR LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGIST, Dr. Katelyn Jetelina.

Why this silence from the state? From the County? From the School Districts?

The best I can figure for you is that you, Westchester County residents are doing better, practicing safer socializing, because so far covid cases are being contained for three weeks now, despite the nasty XBB.1.5 variant.

But frankly I’m puzzled.

What is the daily new case count in Westchester (given every day)? Could it be lagging behind substantially do to absence of honest reporting  positive by covid positive persons? Or is the state just behind keeping up with the inflow of positive tests?

Westchester the last 7 days has a daily new case rate of 13.6 new cases a day per 100,000 population.

Westchester has 1,004,457 persons according to the completed census of 2022.  Persons reading my analyses which I do from time to time, KNOW the number of 100,000 increments making up the 1,004,457 is 10.04.

To get the number new cases a day the last 7 days you multiply 13.6 cases per one day by 10.04 which gives us 136 new cases daily, multiply that by 7 and you get 952 new cases a week.

Multiply 952 new infections a week by 4 weeks  and Westchester is growing cases by 3,808 a month according to the covid tracker Saturday.

But, here’s what I don’t understand.

 Even with the containment of covid for three weeks now, we are on target for6,000 infections this month if you go by the daily reported  average new case rate OF 13.6

So how come the state reports we only got lab-tested results of 1,441 the week ended Saturday?

An explanation be could  that persons are not getting lab tested when they discover they are positive for covid. Their cases may not be as serious, and we are told people are not getting as sick. Either the average new cases daily statistic is lagging behind or cases are not being reported by people walking positive.

However if people are covering up they are positive so they can continue to go to work, then the state’s only daily case rate for Westchester  County shows we are either lagging in case reporting, or worse not getting straight data from the population.

 Medical facilities and caregivers, school districts, parents or the state is (for the purpose of morale and “getting back to normal” and keeping the economy going) is underreporting,or behind in counting new cases or people are not reporting positives and seeing doctors.

Last week the state said we had  1,441 new cases. If we were getting 13.6 cases average new  cases daily  the last 7 days we should have had about 955  last week, not 1,441 as reported for the week, which would be fantastic.

I think this means there are either delays in reporting daily cases or God forbid, many more are being treated in the county and the reporting is really backlogged. Last time the County Executive reported hospitalizations for covid it was 285 and that was a week ago.

The state reports 4,862 cases the first 3 weeks of January.

Another week of 1,500 new cases would give us over 6,000 for the month in the county for January, compared to 9,103 in December.

The takeaway despite what appears to be a data delay  on daily new cases,   we have contained covid in January, cases are down 34%

A word of caution: Westchester County positive testing percentage of those tested was 10% for the week on lab-verified tests of 2,115 average per day (14,809 lab verified results for the week).

If 10% of all people tested test positive for every 2,000 tests there could very well be far more people positive out there. Say we test 6,000  that is 600 new positives. Nassau and Suffolk County have hitting those kind of positives most days for weeks now. If Westchester tested 10,000 you might find 1,000 positives a day.

Given a 10% positive rate in Westchester, it seems we have fewer infections reported than we should be seeing reported.

You need to continue to be wary: Winter Recess is coming up for a full week in February generating new opportunities for socialization and infection.

The relaxation of  reporting protocols of new covid case reporting by state, the State Education Department does not appear to be telling an accurate story how daily average new cases for Westchester County, in my opinion.

It would be in the best interests of the public to return to reporting all cases in the county and in the school districts to see the movement of covid infections, as well as individual communities in Westchester County as it used to do.

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Katelyn Jetelina (Reprinted with permission. January 20, 2023)

Rumors around COVID-19 vaccines and death, like the Died Suddenly video we highlighted earlier this week, aren’t random. Disinformation campaigns are deliberate, often orchestrated, and highly effective in confusing people enough to change behaviors, like not getting the COVID-19 vaccine. And it’s a very lucrative business. Malicious rumors continue to be a massive challenge in public health, but we aren’t hopeless. There are things that can be done.

Note: Disinformation is different than misinformation. Disinformation is false information which is deliberately intended to mislead. Misinformation is misleading information without malicious intent. Both are different than healthy scientific debate.

Landscape

Rumors, stigma, and conspiracy theories related to the pandemic are everywhere. One study found that in the infancy of the pandemic (April 2020), they were present in 85 countries and in 25 different languages. The countries with the highest levels? India followed by the U.S. and China.

Analyses have found that 12 people—coined the “disinformation dozen”—are responsible for 65% of misleading claims, rumors, and lies about COVID-19 vaccines on social media. Their impact is most effective on Facebook (account for up to 73% of Facebook rumors), but also bleed into Instagram and Twitter. A scientific study published in Nature found that 1 in 4 anti-COVID-19 vaccine tweets originated from the so-called Children’s Health Defense—which is controlled by one man.

Bots — or automated accounts on social media used to spread online disinformation— have been successfully used to manipulate democracies. They are starting to be used for public health topics, too, like e-cigarettes and medications.

During the pandemic, research found accounts linking to coronavirus information from less reliable sites were more likely to be bots. Another study found that bot activity the weeks before and after the original COVID-19 vaccine roll-out were present for pro- and anti-vaccine content. However, it was particularly high for anti-COVID-19 vaccines and highest leading up to the roll-out.

As Georgetown’s Center for Security reported, amplification of disinformation campaigns will get worse with the rise of artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Why does it work so well?

False information goes farther, faster, deeper and more broadly than the truth. One study (published in 2018—before the pandemic) found false news was 6 times faster at spreading than the truth, reached far more people, and was more broadly diffused.

Why does false news spread so quickly? There are specific tactics used to ensure that information goes viral:

1. Leverage social media. Our information ecosystem is very different than it used to be. We have social media. It’s a huge part of how people get their news and the greatest source of health information worldwide.
2. Exploit information gaps quickly. “A lie can go around the world before the truth gets its pants on.” It takes an order or magnitude more effort to refute rumors than to invent them (This is called Brandolini’s Law). Filling the information void quickly is key. We saw this with the NFL injury, for example.
3. Fail to provide context. Vaccine rumors are intentionally vague. Specifics are not narrowed down; conditions that may seem the same to an untrained person, but to a medical professional are entirely distinct. (Myocarditis is not caused by a blood clot.) Different hypotheses are blended together allowing proponents to shift from one to the other when the data doesn’t turn out like they expected.
4. Kernel of truth. Almost all vaccine rumors have a kernel of truth–something that is true but then distorted, taken out of context, or exaggerated. For example, VAERS does say that more than 18,000 people have died after the vaccine. However, this is taken out of context given the surveillance system and post hoc fallacy.
5. Sowing doubts about scientific consensus. This was famously done in the 1960’s from big tobacco: companies funding sham studies. Researchers found this tactic was intentionally used with vaccines during the pandemic.
6. Exaggerate partisan grievances. Harvard identified the most common narratives of COVID-19 disinformation were “corrupt elites,” “freedom under siege,” and “health freedom.”
7. Presenting fringe views as mainstream. This was dangerously on display last Friday when the BBC invited a prominent anti-vaxxer on TV to talk about statins, but instead hijacked the conversation and pivoted to mRNA vaccines leading to death. This was dangerous because using airtime from a “legitimate” mainstream media source gives the rumors credibility. He knew it too, as he continues to tote the fact that he made it on BBC getting tens of thousands of likes.

Effective

Social media is a domain for manipulating beliefs and ideas. The danger is that it ultimately leads to real-world actions, such as not to vaccinate.

The Kaiser Family Foundation found that between June 2021 and March 2022, 234,000 deaths could have been prevented with the primary series of vaccinations.

The impact of these rumors will bleed into other vaccines. A recent MMWR paper found only 14 states have ≥95% coverage of the MMR vaccine among kindergarteners; 13 states have <90% coverage.

The danger is that infectious diseases violate the assumption of independence. One person’s actions directly impact the person next to them. We are seeing this in the Ohio measles outbreak, where some children hospitalized are only partially vaccinated because they weren’t old enough for the complete series.

Why spread rumors?

Why would people intentionally push a rumor? It’s simple: To turn a profit. Disinformation campaigns, like COVID-19 vaccines, turns out to be incredibly lucrative business model. The Center for Countering Digital Hate outlined this clearly. Some examples include:

• Joseph Mercola uses health disinformation to promote the sale of supplements, books and food. During the height of the pandemic, he promoted a new website designed to prevent or treat COVID-19 with alternative remedies. His business has a net worth of $100 million.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr is the leading anti-vaxxer of the pandemic, as he owns the Children’s Health Defense. He gained more than 1 million followers in 2020 and traffic to his website rose sharply in March 2021 with 2.35 million visits.

What to do about disinformation?

Treat it like the public health problem it is: Investment, surveillance, prevention, intervention. Establish public-private partnerships. Integrate education into schools, like Finland, who has started educating their youth about disinformation.

On an individual-level, combating every rumor that pops up will be a game of whack-a-mole. Researchers have found that education about disinformation tactics makes people more likely to reject disinformation. Some examples include:

• Games, like the GoViral, teaches people how information is manipulated.
• Creative videos, like by Truth Labs for Education, educating on different tactics, like scapegoating:https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/BdlBHh0FOtw?start=39s&rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0

Bottom line

Twelve people are responsible for 65% of disinformation about COVID-19 vaccines on social media. It’s coordinated, effective, lucrative, and costs lives. This is true during the pandemic and it will be true for other public health problems. It’s a public health and biosecurity threat. And we need to treat it like one.

Love, YLE

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“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, data scientist, wife, and mom of two little girls. During the day she works at a nonpartisan health policy think tank and is a senior scientific consultant to a number of organizations, including the CDC. At night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members.

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BASEBALL’S BACK TONIGHT SPRING TRAINING AT 8 ON WPTV FIOS CH 45 AND OPTIMUM CH 76 & www.wpcommunitymedia.org PEOPLE TO BE HEARD WITH THE IMMORTAL BULL ALLEN AND BEYOND THE GAME VETERAN SPORTS INSIDER, JOHN VORPERIAN FROM LEGENDARY AL LANG FIELD IN ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA

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“HELLO THERE EVERYBODY” TONIGHT FROM SUNNY FLORIDA OF MEMORY: BASEBALL IMMORTAL BULL ALLEN AND BEYOND THE GAME INTREPID INTERVIEWER, JOHN VORPERIAN OFFICIALLY OPEN THE HOT STOVE LEAGUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT IN 5 WEEKS! BULL AND JOHN PREVIEW THE 2023 SEASON THE METS THE BOMBERS. THE NEW RULES. HOW WILL THE CLOCK, THE NEW BASES, THE NO SHIFT RULES AFFECT THE GAME? CAN MANAGERS GO BACK TO INSIDE BASEBALL? EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET READY FOR BASEBALL OPENING DAY MARCH 30