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Your Local Epidemiologist

Katelyn Jetelina

 and 

Benjamin D. Rosenberg

Events like COVID-19 and mass shootings are hugely impactful to our society. Unfortunately, as time passes, we don’t do a great job at recalling events, integrating those events into our lives, or using those experiences to make future decisions/judgments.

Simply put, we forget.

Why and how

The mechanics of memories are relatively clear: a combination of neurons, a memory center in our brain, a process to consolidate memories during sleep, and a process to retrieve memories.

However, social psychologists have been grappling with a very different and challenging question for almost 100 years—not how we forget, but why.

The field has essentially settled on two overarching reasons:

1. Infodemic. We are simply inundated with too much information to retain it all. This information overload is at least partially responsible for our forgetfulness.
2. Biases. To wade through all of this information, we use shortcuts, or heuristics. These are mostly good and effective, but the human brain isn’t like a computer—it’s not just data in, data out. The way we think about things is not purely logical; biases and mental shortcuts have a large effect on memories.

Four biases influence memory

How we remember and make decisions is largely driven by our experiences. It makes it easier to remember certain things while forgetting others. There are many biases contributing to this, but four that are especially relevant:

• Immune neglect. Just like our body’s physical immune system helps us stay healthy, we also have an emotional immune system that helps us be psychologically resilient. On balance, this is a good thing, allowing us to bounce back from difficult situations more quickly. The fear, outrage, or other negative emotions that big events arouse often don’t last that long, which impacts judgment and decision-making in the future.
  • Example: The motivation to make a change feels so strong in the immediate aftermath of a mass shooting, but is often shorter-lived than necessary to implement change. Most people get back to their lives as their emotional immune systems allow them to return to normal.

• Availability (or recency) bias. When we make decisions, we don’t weigh the pros and cons equally; some things count more than others for individuals. Things that readily come to mind will sway us more, regardless of their actual importance or value, than those that are harder to recall.
  • Example: The early days of lockdowns, sanitizing groceries, and masking are, for many people, in the past. This makes the details of those bygone times difficult to recall and causes more recent, less frantic memories to impact our decisions. 
  • Example: News coverage is a two-way street. As time from an event increases, people are less likely to click on articles about it, and articles are therefore less likely to cover these topics. The media coverage of mass shootings significantly declines over time. This makes it easier to forget for those outside of the directly impacted community.   

    

   

• Hindsight bias. “I knew it all along!” Humans tend to overestimate their ability to predict what, in reality, was an unpredictable event. This can negatively affect our memory and decision-making in the future.
  • Example: “We shoulda known _____!” This will negatively contribute to decisions about preparing for the future of COVID—or even the possibility of the next pandemic. Overconfidence can be detrimental, as some will feel like they will be able to predict or foresee the next big thing.

• Cognitive dissonance. Early 2020 was horrible, and things are much better now . . . but not all the way better. This reconsideration of a past big event—that sucked, but now things are good—can feel off-putting or inconsistent. Wanting to resolve that inconsistency, people may discount how bad things were then, instead focusing on how good they are now.
  • Example: Each time a mass shooting occurs, millions of people could have the same reaction: wow, that’s horrifying, but I wasn’t personally affected. This inconsistency of thought feels uncomfortable, as we might think we should be feeling 100% bad. To make ourselves feel better, we might convince ourselves that, actually, the shooting wasn’t so bad; these cognitive gymnastics could hinder large-scale responses like long-term government action.

What we can do about it

Although these biases are generally unavoidable, the news isn’t all bad. Studies show that we are particularly prone to using these shortcuts in certain situations, like when we are tired, hungry, or stressed out. Addressing these, before or during decision-making, can help.

What’s more, research indicates that simple awareness of the biases can reduce their influence on us. In other words, we can help short-circuit them by simply shining light.

Bottom line

Memories of the same event do not look the same for everyone. Sometimes the event doesn’t even become a memory at all. Humans have evolved to use mental shortcuts to more smoothly navigate the world.

Unfortunately, this typically means normalizing events—like a pandemic or mass shootings—which will ultimately hurt us in the end, leading to a lack of pandemic preparedness or insufficient pushes for gun reform. This can lead us into the never-ending cycle of panic and neglect unless we actively fight against it.

Love, YLE and BR

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Dr. Ben Rosenberg is an assistant professor of psychology at Dominican University of California and director of the Health and Motivation Lab.

“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, data scientist, wife. During the day she works at a nonpartisan health policy think tank and is a senior scientific consultant to a number of organizations, including the CDC. At night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below:

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WPCNR QUARTERLY STATE OF LIFE SERIES # 8. News & Comment  By John F. Bailey. March 31, 2023:

Always Mom

When a woman decides to become a mother

Bond is formed between mother and creation

Lasting for eternity, never can be cut asunder

From first setting eyes on child with wild-eyed elation.

Always mom from then on

Even when child departs

First steps, first triumphs linger in mind’s repetition

Forever warmly in mother and child hearts.

Sacrifices daily, grudgingly offered,

Yielding proud moments seen in childrens’ glows

Pains of pleasures given up and roads Mom ignored

Ever soothed by sunny days of child laughter and happiness she knows.

Always Mom to depend on and look out for you,

A Child knows even after pulling away Mom is always on his side

Whether in call or text, or fond memory after adieu

Mom’s spirit is always there to draw and comfort alongside.

In a memory, gems of advice

Ignored when first spoke miraculously

Resurface to guide in times of crisis

To reassure, to comfort mysteriously

Always Mom too often we are heedless

Of the heartbreak caused, unaware

How our achievements bring you joy boundless

And remember the hurt you healed with love that does not waver.

Always mom I shall always see there

At the old home place, taste that special treat

Again: pies, the special cakes on magical days of no care

In these days of transition as I grow, the memories repeat

Always Mom, you are the one person who never fails

To deliver what I need at any moment in my life.

From a call to a pat to a ride when I get off the rails

From annoying reminders to trim my course’s sails.

I find my thoughts on your day just inadequate

Too easy to express what your being there always

Has meant to me, so in little trinkets that may brighten your days

By their whimsy and chemistry we share inviolate.

Silly though my talismans of tribute may be our bond together

Will always be a special link I will not have with any other

Even one I may eventually love another

It will never be as unique as the love for my always mother.

So take my silly things and when you smile,

Know you gladden my heart as you always did

When my efforts pleased you, though I did not want to show it did.

Know how hard I tried to please you all the while.

It is impossible for child to ever give back the gifts you give

Even when you are far away. I feel them inside me with warm glow.

I regret when I failed to please you and want you to know

I try to live up to your standard you set each day you live.

As time eventually will changes the ways we are together

I celebrate the time with my Always Mom which makes us both better..

As our bonds loosen, they grow stronger in spirit and deed.

I become more like you, I feel you inside mind and heart and need.

So thank you my Always Mom, on this day.

Celebrating what we have: friendship, advice, tolerance, respect, loyalty

That both of us can draw from each other in times needed,

I hope I will be worthy to provide the same when I become an

Always Mom, too

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WPCNR QUARTERLY STATE OF LIFE SERIES # 6. News & Comment  By John F. Bailey. March 29, 2023:

It’s  coming.

Time to be a kid again

Ball is coming back

This year it really is a brand new ball game.

Pitch Clocks. Batter clocks. Big Bases. No overshifting — and we do not know a lot of the nuances of these new rules. Limiting throws to first. The 10th inning Tiebreaker which I hate.

What if a center moves past straightaway center– is that “offside?” Or after the ball is pitched can the outfielders take off into gaps in anticipation of the direction  the batter is going to  hit to? It may absolutely help outfield defenders. Is a ball called by the umpire, or does the centerfielder have to spend time in a penalty box for an inning and they have to play two outfielders? I shouldn’t have suggested I hope Joe Torre does not see this column!

I have not seen any telecasts of “Exhibition Games” from Florida for the Bombers train and the Metropolitans train, nor heard any radio broadcasts from Florida.

Baseball is the worst sold, worst promoted professional sport. The owners do not promote to young fans. They rely on websites and all sports radio to get their news out. Radio telecasts of Exhibition games on a lazy cold miserable March are like an oasis or were. I guess John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman did some games but at odd times of games. When they break up that play-by-play team it will be a sad day because Waldman is by far the best color commentary on baseball, never gives you cliches like the other announcers.

Look for sponsors on every pitch soon on the radio. “The payoff pitch is brought to you by Republic Bank.” The commercializing of the Yankee radio broadcasts is tough to take. I do not understand how Sterling and Waldman stand it. Sterling (“It is high, it is far, it is gone!”)s now an easy listening announcer similar to the broadcasters when I was growing up: Harry Kalas, By Saam, Bob Prince (“You can kiss it Goodbye”), Ernie Harwell (“For the Taggas,” “Long Gone”)

I loved Exhibition games because it did not matter who won the game. It was for fun for the fans.

But it is a tense time. Baseball is so competitive. Every player is competing and hoping they do not get hurt. The pressure is intense.

The big worry is getting injured and that has happened a lot this spring.

However starting the baseball season on March 31 in the north for the most part is crazy. MLB does a March opener to play nothing but single games. There no more 2 for the price of one doubleheaders scheduled. And when the make-up games come they do it as a day night separate admission doubleheader or the awful twilight-nighter that gets you home at midnight from Da Bronx.

You will be playing possibly in snow at the Yankee opener or Met opener. I remember getting snowed out on April 6 in the 1990s when I went to an opener.

Cold means pulled muscles more injuries. Or worse sore arms. Teams do not hit their stride until June when it starts getting really warm.

Now we have very expanded playoffs, getting more like the NBA, NHL and NFL every year.

The trouble is baseball has no form.  The best team over a season can get taken out when three pitchers get hot in a short series.

As the late Commissioner Fay Vincent said baseball is a game that breaks your heart. They do it every year.

Some other observations, I think the games will be just as slow as they ever have due to the pitching changes.

I think strategies have to be invented to play the tie breaker better. Defend third base is the key — to snuff the push to hit the ball to right. that gets the runner to third to score on an out. Of course few hitters can hit  specifically to an area.

The larger bases may help stealing but pitchouts will be key after the your throws over twice. You have go after the first throw over, so they will be ready for that, too.

The stealing will not be as successful as you think. Hit run? Hitters strike out too much to risk a base runner getting caught by a throw down. Incidentally, does the catcher get to throw down to first at will, no limit? Really baseball’s explanations of these rules has been amateurishly vague. They should offer a Free rules guide to fans.

Pitching management is the key. Bullpens are the name of the game now.

No, I no longer love the game. But you never forget your first love. There is nothing like being in the ballpark. The shadows, the sun, the scoreboards. The beer.

As Bogie once said, “Baseball. It’s my game. Sunshine. Pretty girls, lots of them. A hot dog at the game beats roast beef at The Ritz.”

The State of Ball is always on my mind.

I married Brenda Starr because she sat through a doubleheader (scheduled) in 1970 when the Mets were playing the Big Red Machine. It had rained most of the morning. I said we’ll go to the game anyway. We go. We pay the usual fortune to park..go up to front row seats in the upper deck just off first. There are 6 inches of water under our seats.

I decide well it’s still raining, so we left and I drove back to Jersey, but a strange force drew me to the radio and I said let’s just see…and Bob Murphy is saying…”Well they are taking the tarp off the field and we’ll be playing.”

I turned the car around and drove us back to Shea. Paid to park again.  Got in our seats by the time it started.

The Mets split two 1-run games.

I figured that I would never meet another woman who would ever do that.

So here is my poem “Opening Day” I wrote many years ago for all you fans out there

OPENING DAY is better than Christmas Day,
When you look out  and know they’ll play,
Dreary gray or brilliant spring sunray
Opening Day means The Big Show is back today.

Decades past, Opening Day for fanatics starved,
Eager for  sharp crack of ash on horsehide carved;
Pennants snapping in northwest winds
Top ramparts of inviting walls arches  and sculpted friezes wistfully escarped. 

Fans lucky to get away with ducats
Marvel at flannels sharp whites pristine,
To play in the warm zephyrs in NY blazened caps,
Dashing specks of white warmup on the greenest green.

Motor cars pant in  traffic jams on the Deegan,
Down Yawkey Way, on 35th and Shields or Waveland’s jam.
The first glimpse of storied Park,
The place where ball is played, where ghosts of Ted, Babe, Duke
Mel, Spahnie, Whitey, Mickey, Willie, Yaz, Minnie and Sandy lark.

Pay a fortune to park, pass stogie smoking old men
at the same gates for a hundred years,

Now out into the street 

You go, aroma of roasting chestnuts, pungent cigars sweet,

Cries of “scorecard heah” “programs,heah” shout out, neath light towers to heaven.

Fans in cap and uniform, little boys and girls gawk in awe hoping to make the Anthem
Never seeing such sheer walls, topped with the legend “GameToday 1:30 PM.”

Clutching slim cardboard tix to Section 14 Upper Deck up to the turnstiles
Festooned with souvenirs more dear as diamonds, beyond, the lure of endless aisles.

Into  press of crowd, grizzled usher,

RIPS YOUR TICKET.
Turnstile turns, clicks, and into the cathedral of ball you go
Into the rotunda greeted with magic signs dazzling the senses —
UPPER LEVELS SECTIONS 1 to 39, 2 to 40

Hawkers shout –Voices of Flatbush — colorful books in hand

“Yeabook heah,” “Dodger Yearbook here,” “Hot dog, heah,”
Assail  ears! Up ramps you climb to the sign “NEXT HOMESTAND”

Walking the catwalk,sliver of blue is first look of the magic sphere
Into the sunlight splaying the vast rake of the mighty stand.

Below are baseball knights of the diamond in white hues
Cavorting, snapping throws across immaculate red clay
As majestic fungo bats — CRACK! send white spheres soaring to filling bleachers a mile away,
Bunting flutter from the deck rails red, white and true blues.

Old Glory furls on  highest pole in centerfield
Colorful signage deliver the manly flavor of the only real game,
GILLETTE To Look Sharp, The Red Sox use Lifeboy, Schaefer It’s A Hit
Hey, Neighbor Have a Gansett, White Owl Cigars, Hit Sign Win Suit

From old friendly walls, to Gladys Gooding on the organ
Comfy old green scoreboard display
Today’s games in the bigs BETTER THAN CNN
CHI CLE BOS DET, CHI STL, NY WAS make you king for a day.
Two Bits for a scorecard, usher wipes your seat, ballpark fills your heart.

Penciling lineup 42 2B, 1 SS, 14 1B, 4 CF, 39 C, 6 RF, 23 LF 19 3B 36 P

Smell of beer, peanuts and pretzels.

Nippy air, warm rays sink into face feels nice,

Starters wheel,deal, kicking high on sidelines fueling expectancy

Men in blue, arms folded solemnly conduct the home plate regimen
Casey, Ralph , Walter, Joe,Sparky exchange lineup cards and knowing
Ground rules by heart, go over them for ritual’s sake.
Bob Shepard “The Voice of God” entones “Good afternoon, Ladies and Gentlemen,

Welcome to Yankee Stadium.”

“Please rise for the playing of our national anthem,”
Nancy Faust at organ note by note renders baseball’s theme song
Rising on the breeze, uniting do-rag and ball cap,
Fedora, ponytail and bouffant in the spirit of the great game.

Grass is never greener on opening days
Strikes are louder, long drives electrify alleys
Beers with whiter than white high creamy heads, Taste crisp cold mellow best brew you drink all year

Smashes laser through short in the gap in raucous rallies

Magicians without wands start 6-4-3s, (if you’re scoring at home)

Backhand sure hits losing their caps

“Oh what a play”s crackle on WGN with “CUBS WIN!”‘S

Jack and Mel, Vince, Red, Curt and Murph , Gussie, Marty, John and Suzyn , Ernie, The Gunner, are back at mikes turning mundane days

Into joy with a ninth inning elixir and “happy recaps”

Thunderous ROARS AWARD the 2-out winner again creating big kids’ grins.

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WPCNR QUARTERLY STATE OF LIFE SERIES # 4. News & Comment  By John F. Bailey. March 27, 2023:

I am writing this after the Friday White Plains Week report.

When I finished that report and was having cocktail hour with Brenda Starr, she mentioned a covid article on page 2 of the  morning New York Times how the paper are changing the way they report the numbers on covid.

Their reason,  I quote:

“The New York Times is ending its Covid data gathering operation. The Times will continue to publish its Covid tracking pages for the United States, only now they will be based on the latest information available from the federal government, not The Times’s data set.”

The Times remarks they will concentrate on hospitalizations, deaths from the virus, but  will update them weekly, not daily. The Times also states “the data from state and local sources is reported less frequently and less reliably. The comprehensive, real-time reporting that the Times hjas prioritized is no longer possible.”

I applaud this effort to concentrate on hospitalizations to gauge the  ongoing impact of this disease.

Hospitalizations have been played down in information in Westchester County and the Mud-Hudson region.  And unless you have the patience of a season dataset analyst using the New York State Department of Health daily record of hospitalizations that shows what hospitals are getting hit with hospitalizations, you do not get a true picture of the chilling amount of persons being hospitalized for covid the last 2 and 1/2  months

White Plains Hospital Medical Center in the last 3 weeks back to March 1 shows that since march is a go-to place for many covid sufferers 58% of admissions to White Plains hospital beds are for Covid.    Through the 21st of March there were 172 persons admitted to White Plains Hospital and 102 were being treated for covid. These were not Emergency Room walk-ins and walkouts after treatment . Other hospitals around Westchester are not experiencing this consistent stream of Covid traffic.

The Times decision to drill deeper into hospitalizations around counties and their hospitals is a good one.

However when this new policy of once a week data desemination from the Center for Disease Control which has declared ambiguous messages in the past, and now we are going to get less of it from the CDC? How does that improve matters?

The government data mills grind out economic indicators weekly. One week it is up and one week they are down and the government, Wall Street, consumers moan. Politicians claim we must do something.

Meanwhile as the Times observes in Covid there is a deterioration of time on-the-money data.

When facts fail to be considered important by bureaucrats of large agencies, there is a tendency to dilute the value of facts.

The Times is troubled by this deterioration of quality timely Covid data. So is the noted epidemiologist, Dr. Katelyn Jetelina whose news letter has opened my eyes to a lot of not is not being interelated when the should be.

I have long decried Westchester County suspending the county community by community daily infections map When they did that about 6 months it was a real loss because the media lost a measuring tool that at the time it was suspended was showing all communities in county with daily new cases of the disease. We had that and now we don’t

The evil that creates situations is the tendency to portray matters in a positive manner, particularly if you are governing them. Happy economy, happy recreation, there’s no security problems –those positives keep the people from panicking or being  conservative in their contributions to society: keeping the economy going by spending comes to mind. Covid killed us for 3 years. Now we may be letting it back in by not paying attention enough to what it is doing.

The hospitalizations data for the facilities in Westchester New York City, Nassau and Suffolk and the Mid-Hudson region  is very revealing.

On March 21, the 7 counties in the Mid Hudson Region was 104 in one day which is 3,126 possible cases hospitalized in a month from now.

What is needed is knowledge on how hospital staffs are being impacted. Are nurses leaving in droves. Are doctors retiring. Is there a shortage of medicine to treat covid? The people in our 7 counties in the Hudson region are getting sick with covid. How are the logistics of treating holding up and of course who is getting it.

School reporting on their positive covid cases is a must. Schools must be more candid on their illness management and extend of it. Last year White Plains Hospital had 25% of students, teachers, administrations  come down with covid. We have no idea of that now.

That is just making it easy to hide, if you want to hide, how the schools, businesses and the people in those venues what the covid situation and hoping it all blow over.

Today the state of evil is willfully ignoring reality.