Hits: 312

COVID NEW CASES IN WESTCHESTER RISE TO 194 JUNE 18-24.

COVID NEW POSITIVES BASED ON COUNTY POPULATION REACHES 839 NEW CASES IN 3 WEEKS OF JUNE

COULD REACH  871 THIS WEEK AS JUNE ENDS  WITH POSSIBLE 1,710 NEW CASES

 1,710  TOTAL CASES FOR MONTH OF JUNE (25% OF LAST JUNE) 

WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. From the NY State Covid 19 Tracker. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. June 27, 2023:

The most significant covid number provided each week on the New York State covid tracker is new daily case per 100,000 population in Westchester County. You have to interpret it to know covid true spread.

For the 7 days June 18-24, the daily cases per day were 3.1 for covid in “covid confident” Westchester County.

However to get the total new covid cases you have to multiply that 3.1 by 10.04 segments of 100,000 population (Westchester has 1,004,000 population).

The choosing by the state to report a fraction of new daily cases gives a false sense of safety across the county that covid is in decline.

It is not.

In the first three weeks of June Westchester has reported  315, 174 and 156 new daily cases lab tested positives, which in my opinion vastly undercuts the gathering momentum the  pandemic that is “over,” “behind us” and “no longer a threat.”

The math indicates covid is consolidating and  growing in the county at a rate  871 cases a week.Rapidly approaching a thousand cases a week again.

In the 7 days ended last Saturday the daily average of new covid cases in Our Westchester was 3.1 per 100,000 population, at 10.4 times 3.1 this means instead of 3.1 new cases a day Westchester was actually experiencing 31 new cases a day countywide, a total of 217 new cases countywide last week.

Another week of 217 cases this week will mean if that 3.1 average continues will raise June covid cases to 1,702 . That total  is  7.000 less than the 9,642 new cases last June when all daily cases were reported by the Tracker.

Covid  is growing because of the apparent reluctance of persons testing positive with an antigen home test, not getting lab tests to verify. I call these victims of covid “Invisible Positives.”

Various motives for not testing to see if you really have covid  can be attributed to thinking they do not need to test because covid is now curable with medications readily available; not wanting to have to report they are positive to work; fear they will lose their jobs.

I tell you if I tested positive with an antigen test and did not have symptoms I would want to know if I was a carrier of the plague in my breath to others.

What does this obvious  unclear reporting of  actual total new cases by the state mean?

July is a month of risk.

Two weeks ago  in Westchester, the daily case rate was 2.2 per 100,000 this week just completed the daily case rate is 3.1.

More cases are happening each day (lab tested) now than two weeks ago.  The growth rate of new cases creating new cases of  156 two weeks previous went up to 194 last week. The Spread rate has  1 new case spreading the disease to  1.24 persons.

Westchester new cases (lab verifed only) in  a week spread it to 194 persons, 38 more or 25%.  This week those 871 people will spread it to 148 more persons at that 7 day growth rate.  Westchester has  exceeded the containment threshold of 1 persons spreading it to just 1 person.  Covid has shifted gears into its all-too-well-known spreading mode.

If we keep the number cases at the 3.1 daily 7 day average this means we will do over 217 next week with a 1 person spreading it to 1.25 persons we will have 270 infections with possibly a lot more than that given the flurry of mass-attended  events July 1 to 8.

This is not the time to ignore getting your complete series of vaccinations and certainly very important to get your 6^th shot the booster.

Mixing mingling with crowds and outings in July, resulted in over 10,298 new cases. Vaccinated populations halted that in August.

However, the “Invisible Positives”  rate – the number of persons carriers of covid who are not identified,  not testing to confirm they are positive are a threat to expand covid ability to infect.  Perhaps, 1,085 people in the first week in July if you multiply the June infections this week  by 1.25 ( 194 x 1.25 is 425) plus whatever the real number of the impossible to know number Invisible Positives is).

If the new cases last week spread a 1 to 4 persons that 194 goes up to spreading to 659 during the week of the first of July. Say it stays at that despite travel and recreation celebrations, beach exposure, pool exposure, concerts in towns.

The worrisome number of infections a week gives you 2,500 to 3,000 infections in July.

But unless more persons without complete series plus booster get them. The vaccinations will not save us from the infections in August.

Without vaccination diligence on the part of those not fully vaccinated, you can expect not a decline of covid in August but as yet an  unpredictable increase.

Another factor that will contribute to more cases more often  is covid is feasting on the weekends.

After the weekends in June, new cases have strengthened by midweek, meaning that weekend activities  that persons attend are spreading awareness that  “Hey I might have it (covid)” and they go to  lab test and they are tested positive.

What does that tell me?

Last week June 18 to 24, On Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday we had 117 new covid cases (30, 52 and 35)

The week before June 11 to 17, Westchester experienced 36,23, 21 on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday for a total of  80. Infections of covid in the midweek then doubled last week to 117..

Hits: 186

 WPCNR Drops Weather as Unreliable.

WPCNR WEATHER OR NOT. News & Comment by John F. Bailey. June 26, 2023:

Has anyone noticed that weather forecasts for the Northeast have been notoriously wrong consistently lately for months?

Weather weeks supposed to be all rainy have not turned out that way.

7 Day forecasts are total guesswork.

24 hour forecasts fail to take into account the meandering forces driving cold and warm  fronts expected and the alarming intensity of the jet stream to alter direction of the fronts.

Zeroing in on weather can only be loosely forecast by taking a look at  the radar West Coast to East Coast snapshots that may have direction and intensity dissipated turning heavy rains into maybe rains and no precipitation at all.

It’s dartboard weather.

This  unpredictability affects airline schedules. Recently on a flight to Memphis predicted to be smooth once the aircraft  approach Memphis airspace. But servere thunderstorm cells developed within an hour of Memphis. The attempted first landing had to be aborted with a harrowing sharp acceleration and Steve Canyon sharp turn and climb to the left due to a strong crosswind.

Yet we religiously listen to traffic and weather together on the 8’s or on the 1’s on AM radio, or sit through 3 or four weather segments on TV.

WPCNR after another dismally incorrect weekend forecast by the National Weather Service as well as local weather meteorologists, I have decided to drop daily weather forecasts at the start of each day.

My doing so was to provide a cue to the following day but after this weekend’s weather inaccuracies, I have decided weather is just too capricious to predict with timings and advisories.

There are three reasons for my cancelling the weather.

1. They are consistently inaccurate.
2. They create unnecessary worry, disappointment on the part of readers who act and plan on the weather and if it is wrong plans are cancelled unnecessarily.
3. The best way to predict the weather is look out the window.

Bear these possibilities in mind:

Humid and in the 80s chance of thunderstorms late in the day or not at all. In the 80s low humidity, The beach or the cookout is possible to squeeze in. And if you have tickets to a Yankee or Met game, always go to the ballpark because they rarely cancel a game.

Weather has become “Infotainment,” like the newscasts themselves. Weather gives you “real feel,” “gusty winds”, “dangerous weather” “Heat indexes” “Drink water” it is sensationalized. Back in the age of The  Original Weather Channel the dire forecasts were easier to take, but now it is a lot more sensational, Even fair hot weather is treated as a threat

I am contemplating a different way to handle the weather, but for now I am not going to add to the worry and anxiety of the news that matters.

I hope this is not a disappointment to you.

To eliminate your wondering about the weather  I suggest walking out at dawn and seeing the sun, and clouds if any and judging the temperature. If it is 70 at dawn you will hit the 80s on a typical clear summer day. Mix of sun and clouds…those clouds could bring thunderstorms.

Winds from the south could bring humid air in later in the day. Winds from the  West and North North West are clearing winds. Winds from the East bring possibility of rain.

Overcast and humid, be aware of thunderstorm possibility towards late in the day. Since you have to leave for the beach early to even get there in a reasonable time. You go, enjoy the early part of the day before the sun index burns you…then leave to beat the rush hour.

I f you boat you need to listen to the Marine  Forecast for the “chop” a foot or more on Long Island Sound is not good for small boats at all. 2 Feet  chop, cabin cruisers have a rough  ride. Sailboat enthusiasts, be wary with winds over 10 knots. But you are more of a judge of that than I.

Swimmers need to be wary of water temperatures. The Long Island Sound and the south shore of Long Island are unusually cold in temperature this June and the beaches have hotlines I believe.

Nature has natural warnings. First time you hear thunder, see shelter or suspend the barbecue.

Hits: 269

With graduation season upon us, NewYork-Presbyterian Hudson Valley Hospital’s Auxiliary has awarded seven local high school seniors with a $1,500 scholarship to honor their academic accomplishments. These students, all planning to pursue a career in the health space, were presented with their awards at The Scholarship Ceremony on Thursday, June 22, 2023, at 2pm in the Pataki Conference Center on the Hudson Valley Campus.

The Hospital Auxiliary has been an ambassador in the Hudson Valley community for over 80 years. Congratulations to the hard-working recipients as they embark on their next academic journey!

The recipients (L to R) Nicole Inga, Yulisa Martinez, Litzi Rodriguez, Leysha Esteves, Fiorella Pirela Jimenez, Nicole Caguano, and Lamyaa Hamid

Hits: 241

JOHN BAILEY AND THE NEWS

THIS WEEK ON WHITE PLAINS WEEK

EVERY WEEK FOR 22 YEARS, “WESTCHESTER’S BIG MIKE”

Hits: 0

WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A MEMBER OF THE SCHOOL BOARD DURING ONE OF THE MOST DRAMATIC YEARS OF DISTRICT GROWTH.

FROM  SUPERINTENDENT TIMOTHY CONNORS TO DR. JOSEPH RICCA: WHERE WE WERE THEN AND WHERE THE SCHOOL DISRICT IS NOW

THE DUTIES, THE SACRIFICE, THE DECISIONS THE DRAMA

WHAT YOU NEED TO BRING TO THE SCHOOL BOARD

MEETINGS  MEETINGS MEETINGS.

BRINGING TAXES DOWN FROM 7% A YEAR INCREASES TO UNDER 3%

THE IMPACT OF THE TAX CAP, WHAT MIGHT HAVE HAPPENED WITHOUT IT.

THE PROGRESS OF THE SCHOOL DISTRICT WITH MINORITIES AND ENGLISH LEARNERS

THE SCHOOL BOARD AND THE SUPERINTENDENT OF SCHOOLS THE INTERACTION AND THE ACTION

MANUFACTURING CONSENT

LISTENING TO STUDENTS–THEY COUNT!