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Westchester County Executive George Latimer announced he would resign as County Executive effective January 2 to assume his seat representing the 16th Congressional District yesterday.
To see his remarks go to
GOVERNOR VETO OF NON PROFIT PROTECTION LAW LAMENTED. WOULD PROTECT FROM GOVERNMENT LABELING A NON PROFIT A “TERRORIST” ORGANIZATION AND TERMINATING CONTRACTS
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WPCNR THE LETTER TICKER. NOVEMBER 26, 2024:
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Fair Contracting with Nonprofit Organizations With NPW’s (NON PROFIT WORKERS)advocacy, S.4877-A (Mayer) / A.2740-B (Paulin), had passed both the New York State Senate and Assembly. This legislation addressed serious issues related to nonprofit contracting with state agencies, including late procurement and payment and government accountability in the contracting process. Governor Hochul reviewed the bills, and vetoed signing them into law. Please find the veto message HERE. While this is not the outcome we had hoped for, it was still a win as the legislation passed the Assembly for the first time. We are committed to working with all parties to determine how to improve the process and will keep you updated on further action. Our sincere gratitude to Senator Mayer and Assemblymember Paulin for championing this legislation, their team members for the considerable time and effort made interfacing with NPW and our lobbyist Deanne Braveman from Mercury, and for the support of the Westchester Assembly and Senate delegations to Westchester. |
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HR 9495 Passed the House of Representatives The House of Representatives did vote to pass HR 9495. HR 9495, which would allow a presidentially appointed treasury secretary to unilaterally strip a nonprofit of its status if deemed a “terrorism-supporting” organization, has passed in the US House of Representatives. While very disappointing, unified advocacy did have an impact as 37 members of the house changed their yes vote to no. NPW will be reaching out to Senate Majority Leader Schumer’s and Senator Gillibrand’s offices this week and will keep you updated on further action related to the U.S. Senate. |
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Special NPW Policy Committee Meeting December 19th, 10:00 – 11:30 AM – Open to Members and Nonmembers
The NPW Disabilities Affinity Group and Public Policy Committee will meet together virtually on December 19th, 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM.
There will be a special presentation from the #JustPay Campaign. This will be an important opportunity to address concerns about the COLA and other issues related to advancing higher wages for nonprofit human services workers and more equitable systems for the nonprofit sector. |
NOVEMBER 25 — HOCHUL SIGNS EXTENDED AGE ORDER OF PROTECTION PROVISIONS IN DOMESTIC VIOLENCE CASES
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GOVERNOR HOCHUL SIGNS LEGISLATION EXPANDING LEGAL PROTECTIONS IN DOMESTIC VIOLENCE TO THREATENED PERSONS OVER 18
Governor Kathy Hochul today signed legislation expanding protections in domestic violence cases in criminal and family court. This legislation recognizes that domestic violence does not just impact a person who is or was in an intimate relationship with an abuser –– it impacts their family and household members as well.
Under this legislation, all family and household members will be afforded the same process in court, including the ability to obtain an order of protection. Previous laws only allowed unrelated children under the age of 18 to be included on the adult family member’s order of protection.
Additionally, this legislation will allow these family and household members to file family offense petitions in Family Court. Today’s action, on International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, expands on Governor Hochul and the Legislature’s commitments to keeping all New Yorkers safe and combating domestic violence.
“Melanie Chianese should be standing with us today, along with countless New Yorkers lost at the hands of senseless and preventable acts of domestic violence,” Governor Hochul said. “By signing Melanie’s law, we are committing New York State, our law enforcement and our legal system to the fundamental principle that every person deserves to be protected.”
Melanie’s Law is named after Melanie Chianese, who was tragically killed by her mother’s ex-boyfriend while he was awaiting sentencing after pleading guilty to a domestic violence felony.
Melanie’s mother, Cheryl Chianese-Cavalli, was able to get orders of protection for herself and Melanie’s four-year-old son, but Melanie was ineligible because she was 29.
Governor Hochul was joined at the signing by Melanie’s mother. Melanie’s Law recognizes the importance of protecting those close to a victim, as in many cases, those who harm will use any method to establish power and control over their partner, including hurting those who matter most to them.
Mother of Melanie Chianese, Cheryl Chianese-Cavalli said, “Today is a big step forward for domestic violence. Melanie’s Law will save lives and her legacy will live on forever in our hearts.”
State Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins said, “With Governor Hochul’s signing of Melanie’s Law today, New York takes a significant step forward in strengthening protections for survivors of domestic violence and their loved ones. I commend Senator Michelle Hinchey for her determination in championing this law and thank our partners in the Assembly for their collaboration in getting it done. Above all, I want to express my deepest gratitude to Melanie’s family and the advocates who have turned their pain into purpose, working tirelessly to make this law a reality. Their courage and determination will provide safety and peace of mind to countless families across our state.”
State Senator Michelle Hinchey said, “Today, thanks to one mother’s extraordinary courage and advocacy for change, Melanie’s Law, championed by her mom, Cheryl, is now law. Domestic violence leaves a trail of trauma that impacts entire families, and when people come forward for help, they deserve a legal system that offers protection and compassion. I’m proud to sponsor Melanie’s Law, which will help do that, allowing orders of protection to now extend to relatives of DV victims, providing a safeguard for those who often bear the ripple effects of abuse. My deepest thanks go to Governor Hochul for signing this vital legislation and Cheryl Chianese, whose advocacy has provided families with a stronger voice in their fight for safety through Melanie’s Law.”
The signing comes one month after more than 250 professionals from across the state arrived in Albany to attend “Learning the Signs: Assessing the Risk of Lethality in Domestic Violence Cases” — the state’s first-ever summit of its kind — hosted by the state Office for the Prevention of Domestic Violence (OPDV) and the State Division of Criminal Justice Services (DCJS).
The two-day training provided law enforcement agencies, attorneys, social services staff, gender-based violence services providers and other professionals with the necessary training and tools to assess danger in domestic violence cases and respond in a survivor-centered, trauma-informed and culturally responsive manner.
Earlier in October, Governor Hochul announced a record-level, $35 million state investment to improve the public safety response to intimate partner abuse and domestic violence and better address the needs of victims and survivors.
NOVEMBER 25 — AP: TRUMP OFF HOOK. JUSTICE DEPARTMENT MOVES TO DISMISS TRUMP DOCUMENTS CASE AND ELECTION INTERFERENCE CASE.
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fROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS:
Federal prosecutors moved Monday to dismiss the criminal charges against President-elect Donald Trump that accused him of plotting to overturn the 2020 election and to abandon the classified documents case against him, citing longstanding Justice Department policy that says sitting presidents cannot face criminal prosecution.
The decision by special counsel Jack Smith, who had fiercely sought to hold Trump criminally accountable for his efforts to subvert the 2020 election, represented the end of the federal effort against the former president following his election victory this month despite the election-related cases and multiple other unrelated criminal charges against him and is headed back to the White House.
The decision, revealed in court filings, also amounts to a predictable but nonetheless stunning conclusion to criminal cases that had been seen as the most perilous of the multiple legal threats Trump has faced. It reflects the practical consequences of Trump’s victory, ensuring he enters office free from scrutiny over his hoarding of top secret documents and his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election he lost to Democrat Joe Biden.
OCTOBER 25–OUTBREAK OUTLOOK NORTHEAST. NEW YORK COVID RETURNS TO MID-SUMMER LOWS. BIRD FLU CONCERNS IN PENNSYLVANIA
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Welcome to the Northeastern edition of Outbreak Outlook! It is only available to paid subscribers. If you wish to become a paid subscriber and access region-specific information, please click the Subscribe now button below. Thanks for reading! -Caitlin
Respiratory Diseases
ILI
Most states in the region are doing fine with ILI, with a few exceptions.
New York City leads the Northeast with 4.6% outpatient ILI (up from 4.2%). NYC often has the highest activity in the region, so this pattern is familiar. New Jersey follows with 4.2% ILI (down slightly from 4.4%) and minimal wastewater activity.
New York (excluding NYC) reports 2.2% ILI with minimal wastewater activity, while Pennsylvania shows 1.6% ILI with minimal wastewater levels.
The northern New England states show much lower activity levels. Maine reports 1.6% ILI (down from 1.7%) with minimal wastewater activity, while Vermont is at 1.0% ILI with minimal wastewater levels. New Hampshire maintains 1.3% ILI with minimal wastewater activity.
Connecticut is reporting 2.4% ILI and minimal wastewater activity, while Rhode Island shows 1.4% ILI with moderate wastewater levels and a significant decrease from the previous week.
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COVID-19
Wastewater activity is minimal in the Northeast, with a SARS-CoV-2 concentration lower than at any other point in the past year. Severe illness primarily held steady at low levels.
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Source: CDC
Wastewater activity is minimal in New York, New Jersey, and low in Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut. In Maine, wastewater activity is still coming down from the late summer wave and has now decreased to moderate levels. In Rhode Island, activity increased to moderate levels a couple weeks ago, and remained stable this past week.
The exception to this generally calm picture is Pennsylvania, where activity increased by 4-fold in the past week, moving from low to high activity. It’s too soon to know what to make of this anomalous spike.
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Source: CDC
Severe illness primarily held steady at very low levels this past week. Trips to the ED remained at minimal levels (<1.5%) in most states in the region. There were very small increases in ED visits in Maine and New Hampshire. However, it is too soon to tell whether these increases represent the start of an increasing trend or just some transient fluctuations, though the lack of an increase in wastewater activity in these states suggests it may be the latter. Hospitalizations held steady
in New York, at the fairly low level of 2.5 hospitalizations per 100,0000. Hospitalizations also held steady in Connecticut this past week at 2.0; it is now roughly back to where it was before the late summer wave.
RSV
Not much happening with RSV just yet.
Connecticut reports 0.8 per 100,000 and New York shows 0.7 per 100,000, both with concurrent increases in wastewater activity. These are very low levels of hospitalization. Rhode Island is showing very high wastewater activity but no reported hospitalization data.
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RSV hospitalizations in Connecticut. Source: CDC
The remaining northeastern states, including Pennsylvania, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, and New Jersey, maintain minimal wastewater activity levels with very low hospitalization rates. New Hampshire showed a marked decrease in wastewater levels, while others remained relatively stable.
Other Bugs
The spread of many viruses that cause cold- and flu-like illness continues.
- Parainfluenza viruses are fairly elevated, and at 5.9% test positivity are roughly three-quarters of the way to hitting their highest rate in the past year.
- Rhinoviruses/enteroviruses continue to remain quite elevated, at 27% test positivity. Test positivity has been hovering between ~25-30% since September.
- Adenoviruses have increased to 3.7% test positivity, which is fairly elevated. In the past five years, test positivity has tended to peak between 4-5% (with the exception of 2023, when it got up to 8%).
- Human coronaviruses continued the same slow and steady week-over-week increase they’ve been on for the past two months. Test positivity is elevated but not particularly high (it is currently about half of its peak rate of the past year).
Stomach Bugs
Norovirus rates remain very low in the region, at 2.5% test positivity. If you’re traveling to other parts of the country for Thanksgiving, keep in mind that norovirus rates are high in every other region. To help reduce the chance of acquiring the virus, wash your hands frequently with soap and water (alcohol-based hand sanitizers are of little use against norovirus) and avoid touching your face.
Food recalls
The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:
New:
- Super brand dried cinnamon powder (more info)
- Bagged carrots, full size and baby, sold at multiple retailers – this was previously reported, but it expanded to carrots sold under several additional brand names this past week (more info)
- Fabalish Kickin’ Carrot Falafel Bites (related to the carrot recall above) (more info)
- Gaines Family Farmstead Chicken Chips for Dogs. While not for human consumption, humans may be infected by Salmonella if they do not adequately wash their hands or contaminated surfaces after handling the product (more info)
- Hollywood Feed Carolina Raised Chicken Chips [for Dogs]. Same as above (more info)
Previously reported:
- Soft ripened cheeses, including brie, sold under multiple brand names, including Aldi, La Bonne Vie, and Glenview Farms (more info)
- Prepackaged turkey sandwiches with spreadable brie sold under multiple brand names (more info)
- Ready-to-eat poultry and meat products sold by Yu Shang Food, including pork belly, beef shank, and whole chicken (more info)
- If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.
In other news
- As of November 15, 2024, New Brunswick, Canada is experiencing a significant measles outbreak, with 44 confirmed cases, most of which involve individuals aged 19 or younger. This surge has contributed to Canada’s annual measles case count reaching 100, the highest in five years. The outbreak, traced to an initial case reported on October 24 involving international travel, has been confined to Health Zone 3, encompassing Fredericton and parts of the Upper Saint John River Valley. In response, Public Health has organized vaccination clinics and is urging residents to ensure their immunizations are current to curb further transmission.
- BIRD FLU CONCERNS IN PENNSYLVANIA
- Pennsylvania will require H5N1 testing for milk starting Nov. 26 under a quarantine order signed by the state’s Agriculture Secretary. Milk tankers from Pennsylvania farms will be tested at least every 14 days, either at in-state processors or by farmers and cooperatives for out-of-state shipments. Positive tests will trigger quarantines and surveillance testing in affected zones. Developed with industry input and free for farmers, the program complements a forthcoming USDA bulk milk surveillance initiative aimed at mapping virus presence and enforcing biosecurity measures.
NOVEMBER 22—-EMPIRE TRAIN SERVICE RESTORED IN NEW YORK STATE: HOCHUL ANNOUNCES
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THE EMPIRE STATE EXPRESS ROLLING AGAIN
Railroad Agrees To Restore Trains and Add Additional Cars to Empire Service Following Governor’s Letter
Governor Kathy Hochul, Amtrak and the New York State Department of Transportation today announced a restoration of Amtrak’s Empire Service that will aid passengers during the upcoming holiday and winter travel seasons. Following a letter sent by Governor Hochul and others earlier this month urging Amtrak to take action, the railroad — in consultation with the New York State Department of Transportation — has agreed to restore nearly all of the trains that had been temporarily suspended in previously announced service modifications. Additionally, Amtrak has agreed to add additional cars to other Empire Service trains in order to further mitigate the disruption to passengers.
“Ensuring access to reliable train travel throughout this key corridor is critical to riders who utilize the service and to communities who benefit from the economic activity they generate,” Governor Hochul said. “These service restorations are a huge victory for passengers who depend on the Empire Service, and I thank Amtrak for working with us to ensure that we minimize to the fullest extent possible the schedule disruptions caused by the East River Tunnel Rehabilitation Project.”
WHITE PLAINS WEEK THE NOVEMBER 22 REPORT TONIGHT 7:30 EST ON FIOS CH 45 OPTIMUM WP CH 76 AND WWW.WPCOMMUNITYMEDIA.ORG
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THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NEW CONGRESS — WHO REALLY DECIDED THE ELECTION
CONGRESS BEFORE AND AFTER THE ELECTION AS OF NOV 17 WHAT IT MEANS, STRATEGIES
MEDIA POWERHOUSES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ATTITUDE TOWARDS PRESIDENT-ELECT
92 YEARS AGO JANUARY 30TH, 1933 ADOLF HITLER WAS VOTED CHANCELLOR OF GERMANY THE UNBELIEVABLE PEACEFUL ASCENSION.
61 YEARS AGO TODAY PRESIDENT JOHN F. KENNEDY WAS MURDERED IN DALLAS — THE SHADOW WE STILL SUFFER FROM AS A NATION
GAETZ DECIDES NOT TO ACCEPT ATTORNEY GENERAL POST FORMER FLORIDA ATTORNEY GENERAL IS NOMINATED TO REPLACE HIM.
LEAK OF THE WEEK: GAETZ TURNS DOWN ATTORNEY GENERAL NOMINATION AFTER HIS CONTACTS ARE PUBLISHED
BIG MEDIA CHANGES ITS TUNE TO PLAY MORE IN HARMONY WITH THE PRESIDENT ELECT
ASSOCIATED PRESS ESTABLISHES NON-PROFIT TO RAISE $500,000 THIS YEAR TO STAY IN BUSINESS.
FIRST SNOWFALL BEGAN AT MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. ENDS INDIAN SUMMER. ENDS DROUGHT. DPW IS SO READY AND ROADS CLEARED AT SUNRISE. THEY GOT THIS!
YOUR LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGIST NOVEMBER 22: BIRD FLU AFFECTING PRICES OF EGGS
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Si quiere leer la versión en español, pulse aquí.
The Dose (November 22)
Resources that may be helpful, eggs are expensive again, new RSV data, and STIs are declining
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It’s time to get back into the groove of things. Here’s public health news you can use for the week.
Fall respiratory weather report: “Big three” remain low
Per national wastewater data, Covid-19, flu, and RSV all remain low in the U.S.
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I anticipate fall respiratory season “officially” beginning next week, as it will soon cross the epidemic threshold. The holidays may hyperdrive it. I will start publishing a semi-regular State of Affairs again to bring you a deeper dive.
Resources in anticipation of the unknown
Many people are wondering what they can do to prepare for an HHS secretary with a history of ignoring reality. Regardless of what happens, the YLE audience—you—are trusted messengers (religious leaders, business executives, clinicians, public health departments, neighbors, grandparents) and will continue to have a critical role in listening and filling health information voids.
I have started curating a list of resources that may be helpful:
- Top 12 questions on routine vaccines. Many people have questions about routine vaccinations: the need, safety, and rumors. YLE, in partnership with Yale School of Public Health, compiled an FAQ document of evidence-based information for you. Feel free to email, print out, distribute, doodle on, or let it guide organic conversations with others.
Download - Communicating health in a polarized era. On Tuesday, December 10, at 10 a.m. PT/1 p.m. ET, I will host a live Q&A with Kyle McGowan, the former CDC Chief of Staff under the first Trump Administration. McGowan has helped me and many other public health programs think strategically about positioning public health in a polarized era. This event will target a public health audience, but anyone is welcome to join! Mark your calendars; more details to come.
- Weekly takes on public health news. I have joined America Dissected as a co-host! We will bring you first-draft reactions to public health in the news and how politics, media, culture, tech — everything around us — interact to shape our health. Follow on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or whenever you get your podcasts.
Eggs are getting expensive thanks to H5N1 (BIRD FLU)
Egg prices are up 30%, which means we are paying upwards of $4 for a dozen eggs. That is if you can find them. Why? A constellation of reasons, but there is one we can’t ignore: the avian flu (H5N1) is impacting poultry farmers, although it’s not yet as bad as last year.
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Outbreaks in commercial poultry farms can devastate local food supplies, affect farmers’ and employees’ livelihoods, and raise poultry prices due to a limited and strained supply. For example, an egg factory in Iowa killed 5.3 million chickens over a single case of avian influenza in the flock.
There’s no immediate concern for the general public (risk to humans is still low), except that it’s a pain at the grocery store.
WHAT WE KNOW
However, scientists have been learning more about H5N1 and what it may mean to humans. Here’s an attempt to catch you up:
- Asymptomatic infection. Fifty-three humans have been infected with H5N1 this year, mostly from direct contact with dairy cows and poultry. Thanks to some new science, we now know we’re missing cases. The CDC discovered that some dairy workers who never reported symptoms have antibodies. In other words, H5N1 causes asymptomatic infection. This isn’t surprising, given what we know about seasonal flu, a cousin of H5N1.
- A Canadian teenager is in the ICU because of an H5N1 infection. This is the country’s first known H5N1 human infection. Unfortunately, health authorities don’t know how the teen got it. They haven’t had any contact with birds, cows, or pigs (although their dog was euthanized because it got so sick; epidemiologists are looking into this). The teen’s severe reaction is likely related to age. The younger the person, the less cross-protection is offered by exposure to seasonal flu.
- The virus is mutating in places that we don’t like. Scientists looked more closely at the genetics of the Canadian ICU patient’s virus and found concerning mutations that could make it better adapted to infecting humans. These changes alone do not mean that the virus is poised for efficient human-to-human spread, as many additional changes are likely needed for that to occur. But the more chances the virus gets to infect people, the more likely these changes are to occur together. In addition, CDC has reported that some mutations are associated with reduced effectiveness of antivirals. Still, it’s thought that these changes are not currently big enough to make antivirals ineffective altogether.
It will be interesting to see how a change in administration impacts preparedness for pandemics like H5N1. I will be keeping a close eye on it.
New RSV vaccine data for pregnant women: Earlier is better
There’s been a lack of real-world effectiveness data on RSV vaccination during pregnancy. This week, we got a really useful study on the optimal timing of vaccination during pregnancy:
- Researchers collected data on mothers who received an RSV vaccine between 32 and 36 weeks of pregnancy and collected antibody levels in two-month-old newborns.
- They found that women vaccinated closer to delivery had significantly lower antibodies in their babies.
To be clear, getting vaccinated during pregnancy at any time will help the baby. However, for maximum protection, aim to receive the vaccine at least five weeks before your due date.
How does this vaccine work again? A mom gets vaccinated, and then she makes antibodies, which takes some time. Then mom’s antibodies are passed to the neonate via the placenta. Once born, the infant has protection up to six months after birth. Pretty cool! Parents also have the option to give a monoclonal antibody to their infant. See here for more information.
Sexually transmitted infections slow down
After years of increasing, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) have turned the tide and decreased by 1.8%. The decline is seen in every region across the United States but is most pronounced in the West. Lower rates of gonorrhea and syphilis are driving the slowdown.
Why the decrease? Mainly due to public health campaigns and innovations:
- Ability to test frequently and privately. FDA-authorized self-tests (or at-home tests) for syphilis, gonorrhea, and chlamydia. Awareness of infection can reduce transmission to others.
- Doxy PEP. This is a medication one can take within 72 hours of sex that reduces the chances of getting an infection, recommended primarily for men who have sex with men and trans women after unprotected sex.
- Public health campaigns driven by a national task force for syphilis and for PrEP to prevent HIV transmission and to test more frequently.
Reader question grab bag
After the future of vaccine policy post last week, a reader emailed: “Why don’t some places allow [vaccination] exemptions? For example, I recall Maine had a very high exemption rate before ending the exemption; is that true of the others? What happened to change the rules?”
In 2015, a Disneyland measles outbreak fueled legislation to remove non-medical exemptions for routine vaccinations in California. Maine changed its law in 2021. I don’t know why—it doesn’t seem like this was in response to an outbreak but rather a groundswell during the pandemic. It was a very close vote. Both states saw dramatic vaccine exemption declines after passing the law eliminating non-medical exemptions.
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Bottom line
You’re all caught up for the week! Have a wonderful weekend. It’s time for me to pull out holiday boxes and start decorating the house.
Love, YLE
Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) is founded and operated by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom of two little girls. YLE reaches more than 280,000 people in over 132 countries and has a team of 11 whose main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below:
NOVEMBER 21– U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION REDUCING OPERATING HOURS AT FOUR NORTHERN BORDER CROSSINGS IN NEW YORK STATE
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STATEMENT FROM GOVERNOR KATHY HOCHUL ON LOOSE BORDER:
“I strongly oppose the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s decision to reduce operating hours at four crossings on New York’s border with Canada. While the Biden-Harris Administration has achieved measurable success in enhancing southern border security, New York is experiencing a dramatic increase in irregular crossings along our northern border.
“My Administration has already taken actions to further defend our northern border: redirecting $5 million in federal State Homeland Security Program funding to enhance security efforts at New York’s border with Canada, including by purchasing additional tools to support investigations into transnational criminal organizations.
We have also increased staff and technological capacity for New York State Police, which includes a comprehensive drone management system and handheld X-ray machines. While these important resources will help keep New Yorkers safe and manage the spike in illegal border crossings, greater federal support is crucial to meet the magnitude of migration we are seeing.
“Republicans in Congress failed to pass a bipartisan comprehensive immigration bill earlier this year that would have given states like New York greater resources to handle the influx of migrants nationwide, and New York can no longer afford to wait for federal lawmakers to act. We need to expand enforcement at the northern border today and I call on the U.S. Customs and Border Protection to reverse this decision.”
NOVEMBER 18–PROFESSOR STEPHEN ROLANDI ANALYSIS OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
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November 18, 2024
Steve’s 2024 Election Re-Cap
The Popular Vote – President*
Trump (Rep.) 76,519,421 49.92%
Harris (D) 73,872,728 48.19%
Stein (Green) 764,908 0.50%
Kennedy (Ind.) 737,643 0.48%
Oliver (Lib.) 634,858 0.41%
All others 747,668 0.50%
Total votes cast: 153,277,226
Trump plurality 2,646,693
Note: 50.08% of all votes were cast for someone other than D. Trump.
Estimated Turnout: 155,000,000 or 63.3% of all eligible voters
Source: Associated Press 98.1% of all votes counted & reported (as of 11/17/24)
Electoral College – President Steve’s Forecast Change
Trump (Rep.) 312 264 +48
Harris (Dem.) 226 274 -48
Others 0 0 0
How did the pollsters’ do?
RCP average SR forecast* Actual
Trump (R) 48.6% 48% 50%
Harris (D) 48.7% 49% 48%
Other/Undecided 2.7% 3% 2%
*I called 47/50 states + DC correctly, including the battleground states of: PA.; NC; Nevada & Arizona. I missed: Iowa, Georgia, Michigan & Wisconsin.
State certifications for the Electoral College Deadline: 12/11/2024
NATIONAL VOTE TOTALS FOR THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES*
Republican 73,199,951 50.90%
Democratic 68,359,554 47.53%
Others 2,263,285 1.57%
Total vote cast* 143,822,790
Republican plurality 4,840,397
*source: Charles Cook Report 11/15/24
Current House (2023-25) New House (2025-27)
SR forecast
Rep. 220 218* 216
Dem. 213 212 219
Other 0 0 0
Vacant/Uncalled 2 5
*3 vacancies are anticipated as a result of President-elect Trump’s selection of nominees for: UN Ambassador; Attorney General and CIA.
UNITED STATES SENATE
Change SR Forecast
Rep. 49 52 + 3 51
Dem./Ind. 51 47 – 4 49
Other 0 0 0
Uncalled 0 1 (PA.)
FUNDRAISING TOTALS (estimate)
Trump (Rep.) campaign $ 1.2 billion + $ 300 million surplus
Harris (Dem.) campaign $ 1.6 billion – $ 20 million deficit