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November 18, 2024
Steve’s 2024 Election Re-Cap
The Popular Vote – President*
Trump (Rep.) 76,519,421 49.92%
Harris (D) 73,872,728 48.19%
Stein (Green) 764,908 0.50%
Kennedy (Ind.) 737,643 0.48%
Oliver (Lib.) 634,858 0.41%
All others 747,668 0.50%
Total votes cast: 153,277,226
Trump plurality 2,646,693
Note: 50.08% of all votes were cast for someone other than D. Trump.
Estimated Turnout: 155,000,000 or 63.3% of all eligible voters
Source: Associated Press 98.1% of all votes counted & reported (as of 11/17/24)
Electoral College – President Steve’s Forecast Change
Trump (Rep.) 312 264 +48
Harris (Dem.) 226 274 -48
Others 0 0 0
How did the pollsters’ do?
RCP average SR forecast* Actual
Trump (R) 48.6% 48% 50%
Harris (D) 48.7% 49% 48%
Other/Undecided 2.7% 3% 2%
*I called 47/50 states + DC correctly, including the battleground states of: PA.; NC; Nevada & Arizona. I missed: Iowa, Georgia, Michigan & Wisconsin.
State certifications for the Electoral College Deadline: 12/11/2024
NATIONAL VOTE TOTALS FOR THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES*
Republican 73,199,951 50.90%
Democratic 68,359,554 47.53%
Others 2,263,285 1.57%
Total vote cast* 143,822,790
Republican plurality 4,840,397
*source: Charles Cook Report 11/15/24
Current House (2023-25) New House (2025-27)
SR forecast
Rep. 220 218* 216
Dem. 213 212 219
Other 0 0 0
Vacant/Uncalled 2 5
*3 vacancies are anticipated as a result of President-elect Trump’s selection of nominees for: UN Ambassador; Attorney General and CIA.
UNITED STATES SENATE
Change SR Forecast
Rep. 49 52 + 3 51
Dem./Ind. 51 47 – 4 49
Other 0 0 0
Uncalled 0 1 (PA.)
FUNDRAISING TOTALS (estimate)
Trump (Rep.) campaign $ 1.2 billion + $ 300 million surplus
Harris (Dem.) campaign $ 1.6 billion – $ 20 million deficit