Welcome to the Northeast edition of Outbreak Outlook! It is only available to paid subscribers. If you wish to become a paid subscriber and access region-specific information, please click the Subscribe now button below. Thanks for reading! -Caitlin
Influenza is making a vigorous comeback in the Northeast, with several states at or near 10% outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI). Wastewater concentration, too, is rising, which suggests that activity will remain elevated for the time being.
Northeast Influenza in Wastewater
Wastewater concentration of influenza
New Jersey leads the Northeast with outpatient ILI at 10.3% and ED visits for influenza at 9.1%. Massachusetts follows with outpatient ILI at 8.9% and ED visits for influenza at 7.3%.
New Hampshire reports high activity with outpatient ILI at 8.5% and ED visits for influenza at 6.8%. Connecticut shows outpatient ILI at 5.9% with ED visits for influenza at 7.4%.
New York (excluding NYC) shows outpatient ILI at 5.9% and ED visits for influenza at 6.1%, while New York City separately reports notably higher outpatient ILI at 13.5%.
Rhode Island shows outpatient ILI at 5.3% with ED visits for influenza at 4.4%. Maine reports outpatient ILI at 4.9% with ED visits for influenza at 3.3%. Vermont shows outpatient ILI at 2.8% but higher ED visits for influenza at 6.1%.
Pennsylvania currently shows outpatient ILI at 3.8% and ED visits for influenza at 5.6%.
Northeast Flu ED Visits
Change in percentage of emergency department patient visits
Wastewater activity held roughly steady at moderate levels this past week in the Northeast – but that belies a more complicated picture. Covid-19 looks quite different in the Northeast depending on which state you’re in at the moment.
Worsening: Judging by wastewater activity, Maine is experiencing its worst wave in the past year, with very high and increasing wastewater activity.
In Rhode Island, wastewater activity is also very high (roughly equivalent to where it was during last winter’s peak). After a few weeks of improvements, wastewater activity has increased a bit in Massachusetts to very high levels. Nevertheless – and complicating the picture – all three states saw decreases in ED visits this past week. Hospitalizations remain elevated, but Rhode Island and Maine also logged decreases in hospitalizations. (Hospitalizations held steady in Massachusetts). These are lagging indicators, so these may increase as well in the coming weeks.
Northeast Covid-19 Wastewater
Concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater
Improving: Wastewater is high, but decreasing in New Jersey, Connecticut, and New Hampshire. Similarly, ED visits and hospitalizations are fairly low and held steady or decreased in these states. In the past two weeks, Vermont’s wastewater activity has dropped from very high to moderate levels, and its ED visits and hospitalizations have also decreased substantially.
Pennsylvania may also be turning a corner. Wastewater is still high, but held steady. ED visits have decreased in the past few weeks, and held steady this past week at a minimal 1.0%. Hospitalizations are still high at 11.1, but that decreased this past week too.
Relatively quiet: Wastewater activity and ED visits remain stable and minimal in New York. Hospitalizations held steady at 4.0.
Northeast Covid ED Visits
Change in percentage of emergency department patient visits
RSV, at least, is falling. Emergency department visits and test positivity for RSV are both steadily declining.
Northeast RSV ED Visits
Change in percentage of emergency department patient visits
Two causes of cold- and flu-like symptoms – human coronaviruses and human metapneumovirus – are both high but on the declining side of the curve. Other bugs are fairly low right now.
Norovirus data are back, and as expected, the situation is still bad. Test positivity is at 19.2% and it has been above 16% since December. The highest peak last year before this wave was 14.3%. Keep washing those hands.
The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:
New:
- Blue Ridge Beef Natural Mix [for dogs] (more info). While not for human consumption, humans may be infected with Salmonella if they do not adequately wash their hands or contaminated surfaces after handling the product.
- Wegman’s fully cooked breaded chicken nuggets (more info)
Previously reported:
- Casa Mamita frozen chicken and cheese taquitos (more info)
- Wicklow Gold Cheddar Cheeses (more info)
- Blue Ridge Beef Kitten mix [for Cats] (more info)
- If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.
- H5N1 is spreading widely among wild birds in Massachusetts, and is implicated in the deaths of more than 1,000 wild birds primarily in the Boston and South Shore areas. While the risk of human spread is still low, outdoor cats are at greater risk (should they consume a bird that is infected), and officials are suggesting people keep cats indoors as a result.
