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COVID BULLETIN
ADVISORY 5/12/22 4 PM EDT
NEW YORK STATE COVID TRACKER REPORTS 641 WESTCHESTER PERSONS TESTED POSITIVE WEDNESDAY BRINGING NEW COVID POSITIVES IN THE COUNTY TO 1,936 PERSONS IN THE 4 DAYS SINCE SUNDAY.
THERE WERE 6,340 TESTED WEDNESDAY, THE TOTAL OF 641 POSITIVES IN THE COUNTY RAISED THE 4-DAY INFECTION RATE TO 10% OF THOSE TESTED. THE NEW INFECTIONS IN THE COUNTY WEDNESDAY WERE 88 MORE THAN TUESDAY.
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JOHN BAILEY INTERVIEWS 4 READING EXPERTS ON THE STATE OF TEACHING READING TODAY, THE NECESSITY FOR PROVEN EFFECTIVE NEW TECHNIQUES AND THEIR UNIQUE COLLABORATION TO BRING TO INTRODUCE THE NEWEST RESEARCH FINDINGS TO NEW WINDWARD SCHOOL FACULTY
ENABLES THE CHALLENGED CHILD TO READ FASTER, COMPREHEND MORE EFFECTIVELY, OVERCOMING THEIR UNIQUE UNDERSTANDING CONDITION WITH CUSTOM PROGRAMS.
DR. LAURENCE D. KRUTE
Associate Dean of Graduate Advising Manhattanville College, Purchase NY — Creator of new custom Masters opportunity for faculty of The Windward School
TONIGHT AT 7 ON FIOS COUNTYWIDE CH. 45,OPTIMUM CH. 76 AND www.wpcommunitymedia.org
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WPCNR REALTY REALITY. Special to WPCNR From Cohen Brothers Realty Corporation. May 12, 2022:
Cohen Brothers Realty Corporation, a Manhattan-based national developer with major property interests in Westchester County and developer of 333 Westchester Avenue in White Plains, today announced a proposal for a dramatic redevelopment of the defunct Doral Arrowwood Hotel and Conference Center as a wellness-focused luxury boutique hotel and spa destination featuring multiple restaurants, celebrity-chef dining, extensive indoor and outdoor recreation facilities, and luxury housing.
The proposal calls for replacing the complex on Anderson Hill Road that closed in January 2020, with 146-room luxury boutique hotel, together with 36 apartments and 78 townhomes on the approximately 90-acre property, much of which would remain open space.
The concept will feature signature architecture and envisions two marquee destination restaurants, as well as a hotel restaurant, bars, lounges, fitness facilities, conference and meeting rooms, and ballrooms.
The existing hotel will be demolished, and the golf course will be reimagined as natural open space with a trail network.
The proposed project would create a new footprint that would define the aesthetic and environmental qualities of the site. It is expected to draw from the surrounding Westchester and southern Connecticut regions as well as New York City residents seeking a nearby luxury spa with signature amenities.
“We are very excited to be moving forward with a proposal that we believe is well-suited for the property, the adjacent community, the Village of Rye Brook and Westchester County,” said Charles S. Cohen, President/CEO of Cohen Brothers, who grew up in nearby Harrison. “This is a complete reimagination of an outdated use that is aligned with business and consumer trends of the 21st century.”
A formal proposal and application will be submitted to the Village of Rye Brook for consideration and discussion. (Editor’s Note: Asked when the project might begin, a spokesman said the company does not have firm plans to submit yet and start is “a way off.“
Cohen Brothers Realty Corporation is a private real estate development and management firm with more than 50 years of success in New York and across the country. The firm has built a national reputation for developing and redeveloping premier properties in prime locations and operating them impeccably, including 333 Westchester Avenue in White Plains. Once the headquarters of the General Foods Corp., Cohen Brothers acquired the 39-acre property and working with famed architect Philip Johnson transformed it into a multi-tenant office campus with lush gardens, tree-lined courtyards and first-class amenities.
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COVID MINGLING CONTINUES: 553 MORE WESTCHESTER RESIDENTS REPORTED COVID POSITIVE TUESDAY AFTER WEEKEND.
WPCNR THE COVID DAILY. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Observations and Analysis by John F. Bailey. May 12, 2022:
New Covid cases are running 431 cases a day since Sunday, rising in America’s richest county.
On Sunday, new cases of covid in Westchester County numbered 379 from a mere 3,492 PCR Tests Saturday. The PCR test results are the only test results being reported by the New York State Department of Health
Look what happened on Monday and Tuesday of this week the last days results were reported:
On Sunday reporting, 5,578 PCR tests reported administered Saturday found 497 infections Saturday (9.1%) the day before. If 5,000 came in to test Sunday instead of 3,492 being tested producing 342 you might have gotten 550 new positives. If 10,000 were tested Sunday, you might have gotten 1,000 positives.
This is what I call the hidden spread: persons not testing, asymptomatic like Governor Hochul, or anyone for that matter and resuming back to normal activities, when Westchester is not back to normal.
If the proportion of positives Saturday 497 positive on 5,578 tests, growing 10% of those test was the same growing at 9% you could conceivably have grown to 1,100 positives on Sunday — if 10,000 had been tested Sunday.
On Monday, 2,926 persons were tested. That produced 363 positives, 13.4%. The 2,926 tested Monday is 1/3 of 10,000. So if 10,000 tested Monday,with the same 13% positive portion as appeared Monday, you might have found 1,137 new persons positive with covid.
Now here’s the twist:
Persons numbering 553 were reported being positive in Westchester Tuesday on 5,406 tests.
On Monday, 2,926 were tested and 363 were found positive. 2,926 IS 54% of 5,406 tests. If you double the 363 positives (that tested positive Sunday, but were reported Monday), you get 726, more than the 553 .
But this serendipitous example I just found demonstrates the ominous proportional “hidden” growth on this most recent example demonstrates how high numbers in low testing of positives, I believe means many more infections and misery in the weeks ahead.
Is this really a hidden spread? You have over 10% testing positive on 5,000 tests that’s 500 a day, 3500 a week next week.
There are no plans to do anything about this. Vaccines are down. Testing is available, but tests are the same average per day they have been since February 1.
Monday and Tuesday showed results of possible infection of persons worried enough to get tested Sunday, 363 tested positive Monday, and yesterday, 553 tested positive of 5,406 taking the PCR test.
Using the proportional projection. If you test more you will get more cases than Westchester can handle very shortly.
This will happen if the new positives on low quantities continue at the high infection rates the last 17 days.
The low number of tests appear to be because people can only get the most effective PCR tests at authorized locations like the Westchester County Center, the Yonkers Armory, and the Westchester County Department of Health in White Plains on Court Street and popup locations. Those locations and times are available on the www.westchestergov.com website. The PCR tests are also used by public schools in the county, which distributes the preferred tests to schools requesting them.
As most people should know there are at-home tests, but only PCR test results are reported by the state as the official new daily case counts since April 4.
Let’s look back:
The number of tests being administered per day in 8 weeks when new positive covid cases in Westchester was in decline from February 1 to April 4 was 4,992 in Westchester County,.
Infections had declined throughout February to an average 492 a week with a daily infection rate of 2%.
In March, the covid virus continued in decline two weeks were up but went down the next week The last week in March the virus came back, went up to 1,095 infections up 27%–the first bellwether Westchester was bringing covid back big time.
Beginning the first week in April the County has increased infections steadily for 6 weeks, rising from 1,095 cases the last week in March to 1,895; 2,027; 2,156 the next week; then 2,459 then last week growing to 3,120 new infections. The Fifth Wave has begun.
The average number of tests per day during the April-May Covid surge was 4,981. There has been no wide swings in tests administered since February 1.
Meanwhile, since April 24, 2 weeks and 3 days ago, the infection rate has gone from 7% infected test takers the week of April 24 to 30; to 8.4% May 1 to 7.
The Westchester infection rate has exploded on slightly higher testing to 11.4% on 3,941 tests in just 3 days.
This big switch, as far as WPCNR makes out is the main reason there are lower numbers of tests:
It’s hard to get the PCR test it is not on every corner. Another reason could be fear of being found positive and having to quarantine or not socialize or miss school, or not go to work.
As WPCNR has pointed out previously, the larger numbers testing positive on lower Covid test universes indicate more people in the Westchester and metropolitan area in general are catching and spreading the Covid virus, no matter what the variant variety they get – and spreading it faster—seeing and infecting too many people. It is behavior that is causing yet again, another wave.
If 10,000 had tested Monday in Westchester, you would have had the 1,000 positives. I cannot get my mind around that.
This is the hidden spread not being reported.
With not enough persons coming in for the reliable PCR tests at county facilities, you just are not getting a complete picture of the penetration of the spread every hour and its disruptive potential.
You are on your own. Covid is really out there. The unlucky positives the last three days prove that.
Make the right decisions for yourself.
You are on your own.
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NUMBER OF INFECTIONS LAST WEEK PARALLEL TO THE 2,,791 FOR WEEK OF DEC 6-11 THAT CREATED 77,828 COVID CASES IN JANUARY.
WPCNR COVID DAILY. From the NYS COVID TRACKER. Observations & Analysis by John F. Bailey. May 9, 2022:
Westchester County experienced its sixth straight week of rising infections when Friday’s new covid infections hit 550 in the county followed by 497 new persons testing positive Saturday.
For the record, there were 3,120 new persons showing positive for covid May 1 to 7, two weeks after schools reopened after spring break.
Based on the 2,156 infections two weeks between Jan. 16 to 23 they spread the disease in two weeks to 3,120 people. Dividing 3,120 infections last week by 2,156 computes a “Spread Rate” of each infected person of 2,156 two weeks ago spread the disease to 1.54 persons.
Multiply 3,120 by 1.54 and you see the county faces a minimum of 4,804 persons to 6,000 depending if a 1 to .54 persons spread rate holds. This of course does not count the untold thousands who may have covid in their breath or in their nostrils and do not have symptoms of the disease so are not testing themselves.
Governor Kathy Hochul just Sunday announced she had tested positive for covid, but was asymptomatic (not suffering symptoms).
WPCNR believes without any state statistics I know of the number of persons tested positive but were asymptomatics could BE the factor in escalating the disease new infection spread for six consecutive weeks.
Asymptimatic positives are a stat that has to be broken down on these small number of positive tests.
It is imperative to see if — of the fully vaccinated, the partially vaccinated and the non vaccinated — patients testing positive—whether a majority are asymptomatic, not showing symptoms.
Asymptomatics could accelerate the spread, particularly if not masking and continuing to mingle closely at large gatherings in schools, venues, restaurants, political town halls, campaign functions.
The infection rate average for week May 1 to 7 is: 8.5% of 35,449 tested, 3,120 persons. The average new cases per day were 445 in Westchester County.
A matter of concern if I was a politician or in the Department of Health is the eerie parallel to the time when infections started to rise in September, October increasing incrementally, building larger every day and multiplying rapidly three weeks after Thanksgiving climbing to 280 a day, 2,791 positives the week of December 11 take a look:
On it climbed, the 2,791 doubled to 5,397 in the week of December 18.
The covids spread exponentially touching off a shocking doubling of new infections on the week before Christmas, ending December 25, the biggest wave of Covid the 4th Wave from December through January. On December 25 when 11,450 new infections were reported.
In the next three weeks from Christmas to New Years, and the first two weeks of January, The Fourth Wave exploded to 51,000 the first two weeks in January and went down thanks to the vaccinations rapidly stopping it the last two weeks through January to 3,423 on January 29 of this year.
Now Westchester has sadly, in a rush to “get back to normal” has gotten back to a 5th Wave of Covid about to begin, if you look at the past 6 weeks. The disease is spreading again.
THE SATURDAY MAY 7 COVIDSTOPPERS NOTEBOOK
This is not pretty all around the metropolitan area . WESTCHESTER averaged over 500 new infections for four straight days, averaged 445 new infections a day for the week All last week Orange County and Rockland accelerate new numbers of persons testing positive. Dutchess and Ulster were positively up from previous levels..
The Mid- Hudson region recorded averaged over 1,015 infections a day the 7 days last week, a total of 7,110 infections a week. This means perhaps a doubling of infections in the region in two weeks (14,000 or more).
The Long Island situation is spreading new infections at a steady average of 900 cases in Nassau County and 800 for Suffolk County.
New York City (all 5 boroughs reporting) recorded 25,883 New covid positives last week. The 5 boroughs compined averaged 3,697 new covid positives a day. Given the 1.5 person spread rate over 2 weeks that may double in 2 weeks to 39,859.
The pattern is not good.
But the lack of statistics from the state on who is getting covid, how sick are they getting, and are they staying sick longer has to start being known.
Wishing and hoping do not make covid go away. You have to not get get it.
The pattern of testing is lower testing on the first, second and third days of the week then it goes up sharply as people get symptoms and go in and get tested which says to me the disease is a lot more infectious and citizens are not taking precautions.
This just in: the New York State Covid Tracker Sunday Report of Positives in Westchester. Yesterday, May 8 had 379 Test positive of 3,492 tested. The 379 represents 10.2%, the highest infection percentage in 10 weeks and up in number from last Sunday. If you tested 10,476 you might very well have had 1,137 more positives, considering that the percentage rate would stay the same. Hopefully this first day out of the chute this week will decline and more will come in to test and show less positives.
