NUMBER OF INFECTIONS LAST WEEK PARALLEL TO THE 2,,791 FOR WEEK OF DEC 6-11 THAT CREATED 77,828 COVID CASES IN JANUARY.
WPCNR COVID DAILY. From the NYS COVID TRACKER. Observations & Analysis by John F. Bailey. May 9, 2022:
Westchester County experienced its sixth straight week of rising infections when Friday’s new covid infections hit 550 in the county followed by 497 new persons testing positive Saturday.
For the record, there were 3,120 new persons showing positive for covid May 1 to 7, two weeks after schools reopened after spring break.
Based on the 2,156 infections two weeks between Jan. 16 to 23 they spread the disease in two weeks to 3,120 people. Dividing 3,120 infections last week by 2,156 computes a “Spread Rate” of each infected person of 2,156 two weeks ago spread the disease to 1.54 persons.
Multiply 3,120 by 1.54 and you see the county faces a minimum of 4,804 persons to 6,000 depending if a 1 to .54 persons spread rate holds. This of course does not count the untold thousands who may have covid in their breath or in their nostrils and do not have symptoms of the disease so are not testing themselves.
Governor Kathy Hochul just Sunday announced she had tested positive for covid, but was asymptomatic (not suffering symptoms).
WPCNR believes without any state statistics I know of the number of persons tested positive but were asymptomatics could BE the factor in escalating the disease new infection spread for six consecutive weeks.
Asymptimatic positives are a stat that has to be broken down on these small number of positive tests.
It is imperative to see if — of the fully vaccinated, the partially vaccinated and the non vaccinated — patients testing positive—whether a majority are asymptomatic, not showing symptoms.
Asymptomatics could accelerate the spread, particularly if not masking and continuing to mingle closely at large gatherings in schools, venues, restaurants, political town halls, campaign functions.
The infection rate average for week May 1 to 7 is: 8.5% of 35,449 tested, 3,120 persons. The average new cases per day were 445 in Westchester County.
A matter of concern if I was a politician or in the Department of Health is the eerie parallel to the time when infections started to rise in September, October increasing incrementally, building larger every day and multiplying rapidly three weeks after Thanksgiving climbing to 280 a day, 2,791 positives the week of December 11 take a look:
On it climbed, the 2,791 doubled to 5,397 in the week of December 18.
The covids spread exponentially touching off a shocking doubling of new infections on the week before Christmas, ending December 25, the biggest wave of Covid the 4th Wave from December through January. On December 25 when 11,450 new infections were reported.
In the next three weeks from Christmas to New Years, and the first two weeks of January, The Fourth Wave exploded to 51,000 the first two weeks in January and went down thanks to the vaccinations rapidly stopping it the last two weeks through January to 3,423 on January 29 of this year.
Now Westchester has sadly, in a rush to “get back to normal” has gotten back to a 5th Wave of Covid about to begin, if you look at the past 6 weeks. The disease is spreading again.
THE SATURDAY MAY 7 COVIDSTOPPERS NOTEBOOK
This is not pretty all around the metropolitan area . WESTCHESTER averaged over 500 new infections for four straight days, averaged 445 new infections a day for the week All last week Orange County and Rockland accelerate new numbers of persons testing positive. Dutchess and Ulster were positively up from previous levels..
The Mid- Hudson region recorded averaged over 1,015 infections a day the 7 days last week, a total of 7,110 infections a week. This means perhaps a doubling of infections in the region in two weeks (14,000 or more).
The Long Island situation is spreading new infections at a steady average of 900 cases in Nassau County and 800 for Suffolk County.
New York City (all 5 boroughs reporting) recorded 25,883 New covid positives last week. The 5 boroughs compined averaged 3,697 new covid positives a day. Given the 1.5 person spread rate over 2 weeks that may double in 2 weeks to 39,859.
The pattern is not good.
But the lack of statistics from the state on who is getting covid, how sick are they getting, and are they staying sick longer has to start being known.
Wishing and hoping do not make covid go away. You have to not get get it.
The pattern of testing is lower testing on the first, second and third days of the week then it goes up sharply as people get symptoms and go in and get tested which says to me the disease is a lot more infectious and citizens are not taking precautions.
This just in: the New York State Covid Tracker Sunday Report of Positives in Westchester. Yesterday, May 8 had 379 Test positive of 3,492 tested. The 379 represents 10.2%, the highest infection percentage in 10 weeks and up in number from last Sunday. If you tested 10,476 you might very well have had 1,137 more positives, considering that the percentage rate would stay the same. Hopefully this first day out of the chute this week will decline and more will come in to test and show less positives.