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Outbreak Outlook – Northeast – December 11

BY DR. CAITLIN RIVERS

(REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION)

We’re in the thick of flu season.

DEC 11

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Welcome to the Northeast edition of Outbreak Outlook! It is only available to paid subscribers. If you wish to become a paid subscriber and access region-specific information, please click the Subscribe Now button below. Thanks for reading! -Caitlin

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Respiratory diseases

Influenza-like illness

Influenza like illness (ILI) is definitely on the rise in the Northeastern region. The percentage of visits to the doctor for fever and cough or sore throat rose to 3.8% during the week ending December 2, up from 3.4% the week prior. By comparison, last year’s regional peak was 8.6%. I expect that increases will continue for at least a while longer.

Northeast Region: ILI Activity

Percent of doctors visits for ILI symptoms

 

By state: At the state level, there are some nuances. New York saw a sizable increase, rising 0.7 percentage points to 5.6%. New Jersey also posted a concerning jump of 0.6 points to 5.2%. These levels are really quite high, so be safe out there.

Rhode Island and New Hampshire rose 0.5 and 0.4 points respectively, to around 1.7-1.1%. More moderate ILI increases were seen in Pennsylvania (+0.3 points to 2.1%) and Connecticut (+0.2 to 3.2%).

Vermont, Massachusetts and Maine experienced slight upticks under 0.2 percentage points for the week. No Northeastern states reported a decline in ILI.

Northeast Region: Change in ILI Activity

Percent of doctors visits for ILI symptoms

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Covid-19

Covid-19 is also increasing in the region, following a brief dip around Halloween. The rate of new weekly hospitalizations per 100,000 population is now 7, which is similar to the mini-wave we saw over the summer. Last winter the region reached 18, but I doubt we’ll see that again this year, based on current trends.

Northeast Region: New COVID-19 Hospitalizations

Rate per 100,000 population

 

By state: New Hampshire saw a concerning jump of 1.8 new admissions per 100,000 to 6.3. Massachusetts and Maine also posted sizable increases, rising 1.5 and 1.1 points respectively.

New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island rose between 1.1-0.2 hospitalizations per 100,000. Pennsylvania saw a smaller 0.1 uptick week-over-week.

Connecticut remained essentially flat, while Vermont experienced a decline of -0.8 admissions to 7.0 per 100,000.

Northeast Region: Change in New COVID-19 Hospitalizations

Weekly new hospitalizations per 100,000

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RSV

RSV activity in the Northeast might be improving – reported PCR test positivity dropped slightly last week, to 11.9%, from 13.8% the week before. I have my fingers crossed that this decline is real, and that we are at or near peak season.

Maine saw a dramatic jump, from 28% PCR test positivity up to 36%. New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Vermont all saw more modest increases.

Massachusetts held steady at around 18% PCR test positivity – hopefully that means the outbreak is peaking there, and will begin to decline soon. Pennsylvania registered a slight dip in cases, down to 12%. (There is insufficient data for Rhode Island.)

Northeast Region: RSV Activity

Test Positivity, Percentage

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Other Respiratory + Stomach Bugs

I’m monitoring several other respiratory viruses. .

• Human metapneumovirus activity remains low, as does seasonal coronavirus activity (although it may be inching up a bit).
• Parainfluenza and adenovirus are holding steady at low levels nationally (no regional data are available).

• Norovirus activity continues to increase in the Northeast, with around 10% PCR test positivity. Tis the season—activity will likely continue to increase through springtime. A bout of norovirus is not fun, so remember to wash your hands frequently with soap and water to prevent it (hand sanitizer does not work as well).

Northeast Region: Norovirus Activity

Test Positivity, Percentage

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Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

New this week:

• Ready-to-eat chicken breast products under Chef’s Line brand name (more info).
• Ready-to-eat chicken fried rice under Freshness Guaranteed brand name (more info).
• A range of ready-to-eat beef and poultry products by Pelleh Poultry Corp. (more info).
• Raw ground beef products by Skyline Provisions, Inc. (more info).

Previously reported:

• Cut cantaloupe (more info)
• Peaches, nectarines, and plums distributed by HMC farms (more info)

If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.

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In Other News

• Following the Thanksgiving holiday, Vermont reported Covid-19 outbreaks in seven long-term care facilities and one school. These outbreaks resulted in 17 resident and 21 staff cases in care facilities, but no hospitalizations. At Lake Champlain Waldorf School in Shelburne, nine faculty members tested positive for Covid-19, leading to the closure of lower grades. Covid metrics in Vermont are described as “mixed,” with some measures, like hospitalizations, higher than summer levels, but others like emergency room visits for Covid-like symptoms remain low. These sorts of things happen here and there every year, but don’t usually get much attention. Just another reminder that even a “normal” respiratory virus season can be disruptive.
• We’re still in the thick of seasonal respiratory virus season, but I’m already looking ahead to when I have less to report on. What would you like to see? More narrative essays on current issues in public health? Outbreak outlooks but for mosquito and tick-borne diseases? If you have ideas, let me know in the comments or reply to this email.

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en Español Featured This Week Westchester County’s 18th Annual Holiday Gift Westchester County’s Annual Holiday Gift Drive is underway. The Drive provides holiday gifts to around 1,000 of our County’s children who live in foster care, in homeless shelters and who are receiving preventive and protective services. Drop boxes for unwrapped gifts will be located in the lobby of 148 Martine Avenue in White Plains, as well as at the Department of Social Services District Offices in White Plains, Yonkers, Mount Vernon, and Peekskill through December 14.  Gifts should be appropriate for newborns to 21-year-olds. No stuffed animals or violent toys, please. Learn More Board of Legislators Meeting The next Board of Legislators meeting is scheduled for Monday, December 11, 2023 at 10 a.m. We have a variety of ways for the public to watch and participate. Learn More Westchester County Job Fair Is your company planning to hire in 2024? The Westchester County Office of Economic Development is looking for growing companies seeking local talent to join their team. Exhibiting for businesses is completely free. Learn More Free Bee-Line Bus Fares Just in time for the holidays, Westchester County is offering FREE Bee-Line Bus fares December 16 thru January 1, 2024. Learn More Holiday Fun in County Parks With so much to do in Westchester parks, you will never get bored. Check out what’s happening now. Learn More Holiday Things to do in Westchester This Week The festival of lights kicks off with Hanukkah happenings in Westchester, including menorah lightings, family fun, and plenty of latkes. Learn More Top 5 Arts Picks in Westchester Looking for arts events in Westchester this week? Check out music, exhibitions, theatre, outdoor festival, film events and more. Learn More en Español Destacado Esta Semana 18.º Regalos Anuales de Días Festivos del Condado de Westchester La Colecta Anual de Regalos de Días Festivos del Condado de Westchester está en marcha. La Colecta ofrece regalos para los días festivos a alrededor de 1,000 de los niños de nuestro Condado que viven en hogares de acogida, en refugios para personas sin hogar y que reciben servicios preventivos y de protección. Los buzones para entregar regalos sin envolver estarán ubicados en el vestíbulo de 148 Martine Avenue en White Plains, así como en las Oficinas de Distrito del Departamento de Servicios Sociales en White Plains, Yonkers, Mount Vernon y Peekskill hasta el 14 de diciembre. Los regalos deben ser apropiados para recién nacidos hasta los 21 años. No peluches ni juguetes violentos, por favor. Aprende más Reunión de la Junta de Legisladores La próxima reunión de la Junta de Legisladores está programada para el lunes, 11 de diciembre de 2023 a las 10 a. m. Tenemos una variedad de formas para que el público vea y participe. Aprende más Feria de Empleo del Condado de Westchester ¿Su empresa tiene previsto contratar en 2024? La Oficina de Desarrollo Económico del Condado de Westchester está buscando empresas en crecimiento que busquen talento local para unirse a su equipo. Exponer para empresas es completamente gratuito. Aprende más Tarifas Gratuitas de Autobús Bee-Line Justo a tiempo para las fiestas, el Condado de Westchester ofrece tarifas GRATUITAS de Autobús Bee-Line del 16 de diciembre al 1 de enero de 2024. Aprende más Cosas Festivas para hacer en Westchester Esta Semana El festival de las luces comienza con eventos de Hanukkah en Westchester, que incluyen encendidos de menorá, diversión familiar y muchos latkes. Aprende más Diversión de Días Festivos en los Parques del Condado Con tanto que hacer en los parques de Westchester, nunca te aburrirás. Mira lo que está pasando ahora. Aprende más Los 5 Mejores Lugares Artísticos en Westchester ¿Busca eventos artísticos en Westchester esta semana? Vea música, exposiciones, teatro, festivales al aire libre, eventos cinematográficos y más. Aprende más

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JOHN BAILEY AND THE HARD NEWS YOU NEED TO KNOW

THIS WEEK EVERY WEEK ON WHITE PLAINS WEEK

FOR 22 YEARS  2001-2023

LATIMER RUNS! PRIMARIES BOWMAN IN THE 16TH

CONGRESSMAN JAMAAL BOWMAN FAR RIGHT REACTS TO LATIMER ANNOUNCEMENT

THANKSGIVING COVID BAD PERFORMANCE BY WESTCHESTER:

EPIDEMIOLOGIST DR. JETELINA:22,000 TO 50,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS BY MID WINTER ACROSS U.S.A

JN-1 CIVID VARIANT ON WAY RAMPAGING ACROSS EUROPE

WHO’S LIVING IN THE 16TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT? PROFESSOR ROLANDI ANALYZES

LATIMER’S CHANCES WITH THE MINORITY MAJORITY DISTRICT

CHALLENGE TO REDRAWN DISTRICT 16 HEARD BY COURT OF APPEALS NOV 15–

“NO DECISION YET”

WHAT INFLATION? COUNTY, CITY DOWN IN SALES TAX COLLECTIONS

WHERE’S THE INFLATION FACTOR GONE?

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WPCNR ALBANY LAW JOURNAL. By John F. Bailey. December 6, 2023:

The Appeal of  the New York Supreme Court decision to accept the redrawn election districts put into effect after being created by an appointed Redistricting expert was heard in argument before the Court of Appeals in Buffalo November 15, 2023, according to the Clerk of the New York State Court of Appeals speaking to WPCNR this afternoon. The clerk told WPCNR–

“No decision has been made yet.”

The goal of the appeal is to rescind the court decision that the 2022 districts, including the  16th Congressional District, could not be redrawn by the legislature until after  the 2030 census.

Should the Court of Appeals grant the appeal, this could mean a fast redrawing of districts, in time for the 2024 Democratic Primary for the 16th Congressional District now featuring a challenge of incumbut Jamaal Bowman from now Westchester County Executive George Latimer announced today in a press release.

Here is a summary from the Court of Appeals of case and the appeal:

State of New York
Court of Appeals
Summaries of cases before the Court of Appeals

To be argued Wednesday, November 15, 2023, in Buffalo

No. 90 Matter of Hoffmann v New York State Independent Redistricting Commission

The primary question in this appeal is whether the congressional district map drawn on order of this
Court in Harkenrider v Hochul (38 NY3d 494 [2022]) is the final map that must be used until the next
redistricting cycle begins after the 2030 federal census, or if it is an interim map for use only in the 2022
elections and the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) can be compelled to submit a second set
of redistricting plans to the legislature for use in future congressional elections.

The IRC, established by a State Constitutional amendment in 2014, has ten members equally divided between the major political parties.

It deadlocked twice in 2022, first submitting two competing congressional maps to the Legislature, which rejected
them, and then failing to submit a second redistricting plan as required by the Constitution.

The Legislature then drew and adopted its own map, which was immediately challenged in Harkenrider. This Court ultimately declared the map void, finding that “the legislature and the IRC deviated from the constitutionally mandated [redistricting] procedure.”

It further ruled there was evidence to support the conclusion of the lower courts that
the congressional map was an unconstitutional gerrymander. Concluding that

“judicial oversight is required to facilitate the expeditious creation of constitutionally conforming maps for use in the 2022 election and to safeguard the constitutionally protected right of New Yorkers to a fair election,” this Court directed the trial court to adopt new district lines with the help of a neutral expert. The resulting map was used in last year’s congressional elections.

In June 2022, Anthony Hoffmann and nine other registered voters commenced this proceeding for a
writ of mandamus to compel the IRC to submit a second set of congressional redistricting plans to the
legislature to be used for the rest of this decade.

IRC Chair Ken Jenkins and two other commissioners answered in support of the petition to compel submission of a second map. The IRC remained divided, with Commissioner Ross Brady and four other members moving to dismiss the petition.

The original Harkenrider petitioners intervened and moved to dismiss the suit and retain the 2022 map. Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James filed an amicus brief in support of the petition for a new map.

Supreme Court dismissed the petition, saying it was timely, but “the requested relief to restrict the 2022
maps to the 2022 election violates the constitutional mandate [in article III, § 4(e)] that an approved map be in effect until” a new map is drawn after the next census.

The Appellate Division, Third Department reversed and granted the petition in a 3-2 decision, saying
the IRC had a constitutional duty to submit a second map after its first map was rejected and Harkenrider did
not remedy that failure.

Compelling the IRC to submit a new map to the legislature “honors the constitutional
enactments as the means of providing a robust, fair and equitable procedure for the determination of voting
districts in New York…,” it said.

“[I]n granting this petition, we return the matter to its constitutional design.”

The dissenters argued the  (Hochul-James) petition was untimely and, in any event, “the Constitution requires that …
court-ordered maps remain in place until after the next census.”

They said there was no statement in Harkenrider that the court-drawn map was only for use in the 2022 election, and its “judicial remedy cured the IRC’s failure to act by lawfully establishing a redistricting plan for the ordinary duration, leaving no uncured violation of law and thus foreclosing mandamus.”

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WPCNR NEWS & COMMENT. By Professor Stephen Rolandi. December 6, 2023:

LATIMER TO RUN FOR CONGRESS – 16 C.D.

County Executive Latimer’s decision to file for the Democratic Party nomination for the 2024 16 C.D. primary against incumbent Rep. Jamaal Bowman will draw national attention in a year when the Democrats’ strategy to re-claim the House majority runs “through New York State.”

Mr. Latimer is term-limited as County Executive in 2025, so it is the logical next step for him to run for Congress.

The 16 C.D. includes a small portion of Bronx County (Wakefield); the bulk of the District covers the southern half of Westchester County, including: White Plains, Mount Vernon, Yonkers, New Rochelle, Rye, Port Chester, Mamaroneck and Larchmont.

According to the 2020 census, the 16 C.D. is 40% white; 60% persons of color (breakdown is: 19% African-American; 30% Spanish-speaking; 6% Asian; 5% other); women make up 52% of the District and men, 48%; median household income is $ 96,000. This is a district that is strongly Democratic, as Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden all won the 16 C.D.

In 2022, Representative Bowman, running for re-election, received only 56% in the primary and 64% in the general election against an under-funded Republican-Independent candidate. He is a member of Justice Democrats, the “Squad,” and  has been endorsed by the Working Families Party (WFP) for re-election. He has angered many voters in the 16 C.D. by his controversial stands on many issues.

This should benefit Mr. Latimer, who is viewed as a centrist Democrat and has won repeatedly in elections that comprise the 16 C.D. as well as Westchester County. He will likely run a campaign stressing his dynamic public service record and his ability to appeal to a wide range of voters in the District.

1. The State Legislature has to set the primary date — might be June, might be August, or could be both  – one day for state primary elections, the other for Federal offices;
    
2. I believe there is pending litigation on the Congressional district lines; if resolved in time for the primary, it could have some impact on the Latimer-Bowman primary.  

Bottom Line:

Given the district’s demographics, I would expect Mr. Latimer to win the June primary. The general election may be a different story; Mr. Bowman has the WFP endorsement; a three way-race could occur if Mr. Latimer wins the Democratic Primary, and the Republican and Conservative Parties recruit their own candidate. 

If that candidate were well-funded and more moderate (similar to Rep. Mike Lawler), the race could be competitive. This will also depend on who is running at the top of ticket for President. Time will tell.

(Professor Stephen Rolandi previously served as Deputy Commissioner for the New York State Division of Human Rights, and the New York City Department of Records and Information Services. A political scientist, he is an Adjunct Professor of Public Administration at Pace University and John Jay College of Criminal Justice, CUNY. His views do not necessarily reflect those of his current/former employers).