Welcome to the Northeast edition of Outbreak Outlook! It is only available to paid subscribers. If you wish to become a paid subscriber and access region-specific information, please click the Subscribe Now button below. Thanks for reading! -Caitlin

Respiratory diseases

Influenza-like illness

Influenza like illness (ILI) is definitely on the rise in the Northeastern region. The percentage of visits to the doctor for fever and cough or sore throat rose to 3.8% during the week ending December 2, up from 3.4% the week prior. By comparison, last year’s regional peak was 8.6%. I expect that increases will continue for at least a while longer.

Northeast Region: ILI Activity

Percent of doctors visits for ILI symptoms

By state: At the state level, there are some nuances. New York saw a sizable increase, rising 0.7 percentage points to 5.6%. New Jersey also posted a concerning jump of 0.6 points to 5.2%. These levels are really quite high, so be safe out there.

Rhode Island and New Hampshire rose 0.5 and 0.4 points respectively, to around 1.7-1.1%. More moderate ILI increases were seen in Pennsylvania (+0.3 points to 2.1%) and Connecticut (+0.2 to 3.2%).

Vermont, Massachusetts and Maine experienced slight upticks under 0.2 percentage points for the week. No Northeastern states reported a decline in ILI.

Northeast Region: Change in ILI Activity

Percent of doctors visits for ILI symptoms

Covid-19

Covid-19 is also increasing in the region, following a brief dip around Halloween. The rate of new weekly hospitalizations per 100,000 population is now 7, which is similar to the mini-wave we saw over the summer. Last winter the region reached 18, but I doubt we’ll see that again this year, based on current trends.

Northeast Region: New COVID-19 Hospitalizations

Rate per 100,000 population

By state: New Hampshire saw a concerning jump of 1.8 new admissions per 100,000 to 6.3. Massachusetts and Maine also posted sizable increases, rising 1.5 and 1.1 points respectively.

New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island rose between 1.1-0.2 hospitalizations per 100,000. Pennsylvania saw a smaller 0.1 uptick week-over-week.

Connecticut remained essentially flat, while Vermont experienced a decline of -0.8 admissions to 7.0 per 100,000.

Northeast Region: Change in New COVID-19 Hospitalizations

Weekly new hospitalizations per 100,000

RSV

RSV activity in the Northeast might be improving – reported PCR test positivity dropped slightly last week, to 11.9%, from 13.8% the week before. I have my fingers crossed that this decline is real, and that we are at or near peak season.

Maine saw a dramatic jump, from 28% PCR test positivity up to 36%. New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Vermont all saw more modest increases.

Massachusetts held steady at around 18% PCR test positivity – hopefully that means the outbreak is peaking there, and will begin to decline soon. Pennsylvania registered a slight dip in cases, down to 12%. (There is insufficient data for Rhode Island.)

Northeast Region: RSV Activity

Test Positivity, Percentage

Other Respiratory + Stomach Bugs

I’m monitoring several other respiratory viruses. .

• Human metapneumovirus activity remains low, as does seasonal coronavirus activity (although it may be inching up a bit).
• Parainfluenza and adenovirus are holding steady at low levels nationally (no regional data are available).

• Norovirus activity continues to increase in the Northeast, with around 10% PCR test positivity. Tis the season—activity will likely continue to increase through springtime. A bout of norovirus is not fun, so remember to wash your hands frequently with soap and water to prevent it (hand sanitizer does not work as well).

Northeast Region: Norovirus Activity

Test Positivity, Percentage

Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

New this week:

• Ready-to-eat chicken breast products under Chef’s Line brand name (more info).
• Ready-to-eat chicken fried rice under Freshness Guaranteed brand name (more info).
• A range of ready-to-eat beef and poultry products by Pelleh Poultry Corp. (more info).
• Raw ground beef products by Skyline Provisions, Inc. (more info).

Previously reported:

• Cut cantaloupe (more info)
• Peaches, nectarines, and plums distributed by HMC farms (more info)

If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.

In Other News

• Following the Thanksgiving holiday, Vermont reported Covid-19 outbreaks in seven long-term care facilities and one school. These outbreaks resulted in 17 resident and 21 staff cases in care facilities, but no hospitalizations. At Lake Champlain Waldorf School in Shelburne, nine faculty members tested positive for Covid-19, leading to the closure of lower grades. Covid metrics in Vermont are described as “mixed,” with some measures, like hospitalizations, higher than summer levels, but others like emergency room visits for Covid-like symptoms remain low. These sorts of things happen here and there every year, but don’t usually get much attention. Just another reminder that even a “normal” respiratory virus season can be disruptive.
• We’re still in the thick of seasonal respiratory virus season, but I’m already looking ahead to when I have less to report on. What would you like to see? More narrative essays on current issues in public health? Outbreak outlooks but for mosquito and tick-borne diseases? If you have ideas, let me know in the comments or reply to this email.