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WPCNR COVID 19 OBSERVER. From the NYS COVID-19 TRACKER COMMENTS BY WPCNR’S JOHN BAILEY December 4, 3:40 PM EST:
The state covid tracker caught UP with Thursday’s new covid cases this afternoon, POSTING Westchester County with 322 new cases Thursday (down from 359 Wednesday).
On Thursday, Westchester’s 322 new cases of covid represented a 3.7% postivity rate on 8,676 tested. This is the start, it appears, of growing compounding of new infections culminating the week before Christmas, based on how many persons are spreading Covid to the uninfected:
The 322 cases Thursday divided by the 151 cases two weeks ago (November 18) indicates the virus is spread by every newly positive covid tester to two other persons for every new person covid positive within an approximate 2 week period.
By December 16 those 322 new cases may infect 644 new persons.
At 300 new cases a day now for three straight days the most new cases a day since last April 15, Westchester County must drive this down at once. It also demands heavier testing. And not just testing people thinking they have symptoms. Here’s why:
If the three day rise starting November 30 does not drop or worse sustains its rate of infection — 7 days of 300 infections a day through this weekend could bring 4,200 new infections the week before Christmas (Dec. 16-25).
Subsequent new infections discovered that week of December 16-25 adding to the week between Christmas and New Years infections may create an tsunami of infections in January. If most new infections are unvaccinated, how many will require hospitalizations?
If just 25% of those before Christmas projections (4,620) need hospitalization over Christmas, that is 1155 hospital beds.
If half those 4,620 infections most probably due to that they are not vaccinated need hospitalization that is 2,100 pushing up on Westchester County available hospital beds (2,700). Are the medications effective enough to keep hospitalizations of unvaccinated victims of covid, down low at less than 100 a week? That’s the gamble.
I just reread that last paragraph — that is quite a bet the county and the Mid-Hudson region is making.
Nassau and Suffolk have already bet the house.
At close to 2,000 infections a day now they are in serious bed trouble already and don’t know it. They don’t know it. How can they not know it?
The bet is that unvaccinated cases will not get sick enough to be hospitalized on a high level. This is a reasonable assumption given now Westchester only has 52 hospitalizations last week. It was also stated in this week’s covid breifing by the County Executive George Latimer that 2/3 of new cases are unvaccinated.
The county is confident at the present rate of hospitalizations (52 last week), that they have enough capacity. But that was last week.
This sudden outbreak of almost double infections with the highly social travel Thanksgiving 7-day effect, must be watched with an action plan if the 300 a day trend continues in Westchester and the 6 other counties in the region have no new hospital capacity to match Westchester.
If Westchester Medical Center is expected to handle overflow of patient needs in Rockland, Ulster, Dutchess, Orange,Putnam and Sullivan counties they may be caught flat-footed and understaffed. As the last 7 days showed the spread can rise into a tsunami on you due to human frailty, overconfidence, the need to be together and no-vaccinationees by Christmas.
It appears the Thanksgiving weekend has unleashed a new surge of the fourth wave in 7 days! The doubling of rise in infections started with the last week in September (the legacy of Labor Day Weekend)
The number of infections jumped November 30 to 311. December 1 they went up to 359. December 2, 322..
We are now just 7 days after the holiday travel and Thanksgiving holidays started.
Infections the last three days through Thursday December 2 are 311,359 and 322., an average: 330. If that 330 does not decline sharply and continues, 2 new persons would per every 1 newly testing positive, could produce approximately 4,620 infections the week before Christmas.
The entire 7-county MidHudson region posts including covid-overwhelmed Nassau and Suffolk County had 2,493 new cases of covid down 748 from Wednesday’s 3,137.( down 25%).
New York City showed 2,265 new cases, with Brooklyn and Queens (adjacent Nassau and Suffolk County) having 713 and 598 separately with Nassau and Suffolk with 688 new cases and 830 new cases continuing on fire for the second straight day.
Nassau had 856 cases Wesnesday, and 680 on Thursday. Suffolk County dipped to 830 new cases Thursday, down from 1,103 on Wednesday.
Nassau and Suffolk continue to be the problem for the region spreading cases west into Queens and Brooklyn, it would appear.
The 10 COUNTIES ENCIRCLING NYC HAVE 2,493 NEW COVID CASES, 265 MORE THAN NYC’S 2,265. FOR 10 DAYSTHE 10 SUBURBAN COUNTIES HAVE LEAD ALL NEW YORK CITY CASES- THE 10 OUTSIDE NYC HAD MOST CASES FOR 17 OF 22 DAYS (3 WEEKS)