WHITE PLAINS CITIZENETREPORTER SETS RECORD VISITS FOR YEAR 7,017,658 VISITS! 2,098,003 VISITORS MADE 6 VISITS A DAY EVERY DAY. 63,330 UNIQUE VISITORS MADE 133,730 VISITS IN DECEMBER. WPCNR AVERAGED 17,284 VISITORS A WEEK, VISITING 31,270 TIMES.

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WESTCHESTER 7 DAY SPREAD BY POPULATION: 391 – ON TRACK FOR CLOSE TO 3,000 INFECTIONS…

WPCNR COVID DAILY. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey. June 2, 2022UPDATED 7:21 P.M. EDT:

The New York State Covid Tracker reported 349 Covid Positives in Westchester County yesterday without an explanation of any sort that the total of 349 was the cumulative positives for  the last 4 days Saturday, the 28^th, Sunday the 29^th, Memorial Day the 30^th and Tuesday, May 31^st.

ON JUNE 1, the Covid Tracker reported late this afternoon, 398 testing positive Wednesday on 4,775 tested an 8.4% positve rate, bringing the county total since Sunday to 747, or 186 positives a day that would register 1,302 positive for the week if that pace continued. On Wednesday, the 9 counties surrounding Westchester reported 1,815 positive cases on June 1, yesterday, which is 73% of the 2,484 new positive cases New York City experienced Wednesday. IF the 398 level continues in that level of positives , the week total could reach 2,902 for the week by Saturday continuing the 3,000 a week pace for Westchester alone.

As WPCNR reported Monday, the state in a  Governor Kathy Hochul covid update on May 17^th   said they would suspend reporting of test results over Memorial Weekend in this note  pictured below:

WPCNR asked the Governor’s Press Office this morning if the Tuesday results were cumulative for all 4 days, since there was no special disclaimer on the standard state format explaining it was (or was not a 4 day total covering the 28^th,29^th,30^th, 31^st total positive tests for all the counties by county.

So, assuming as the state did exactly what they said they would do, the 349 new positives for Westchester are a total of the Saturday, Sunday Monday Tuesday positive results, which as the graphic from yesterday shows 349 positives for Westchester, let’s go to see what this appears to show:

The 349 new positive test results on 3,017 tests those last 4 days yield a 12.4% infection rate.

It is a little uneasy to realize that that infection rate the last 4 days is the highest infection rates since  the week of January 9^th to the 15th when we were testing 13,000 to 14,000 a day. On January 15 there were 17,534 tests with 2,171 infections (12.4%) This means that a lot more persons are spreading the disease right now than we know have it.   WPCNR  finds this a matter of concern.

A second way of measuring spread is the Positives per 100,000 metric that as WPCNR pointed out Monday gives a false impression of how good the counties across the state, including Westchester are doing. Last night, I broke out the state metric put out yesterday for the 9 counties surrounding New York City by total population.

Here is what I found:

MID-HUDSON  AVG DAILY POS/100k   2020 POP.     7 DAY POSITIVES

WESTCHESTER           36                            1,004,456                  391  

ORANGE                     31                             401,310                     124    

ROCKLAND                 31                             338,329                    115

DUTCHESS                 27                              293,293                      80

ULSTER                       26                              177,716                       46

PUTNAM                    32                                97,668                       32

SULLIVAN                   37                                78,624                        29

7 COUNTIES            220 (31 avg)               2,391,396                     817 (117 avg)

This means Westchester is averaging for last 7 days, 400 new positives weekly tops in the Mid-Hudson Region in spread, and each of the 7 counties including Westchester is averaging 117 new positives a week and 817 positives a week from all 7 counties combined.

It is easy to see why a positives per 100,000 calculation is more comforting for the Center for Disease Control to rely on. It has the effect of diminishing the scope of the spread across the nation and New York State over 7 days.

Down on Long Island, Nassau County and Suffolk showed these figures yesterday for previous 4 days.

                        AVG  DAILY POS./100K         2020 POP          7 DAY POSITIVES WEEK

NASSAU                      44.7                           1,355,090                           609

SUFFOLK                     39.2                            1,525,290                          594

 All 9 Counties combined for 2,020 new positives last week.

Take into account the figures for New York City on yesterday WPCNR COVIDSTOPPERS NOTEBOOK, and you can note that all 9 counties were counted for 1,949 new positives, compared to 2,802 for New York City. 

The aberration caused by suspended counts the last  5 days has created perhaps too much of an impression that covid is over.

The numbers say otherwise.

Last week from May 15 to  21, Westchester had 3,510 infections, this week May 22 through  28, giving Saturday 87 new positives, the total for the week was 2,553 infections 27% less than last week.

We await tonight’s report.                     

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POSITIVES  FOR SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY EXPECTED TODAY. PRESS OFFICE WARNS NUMBERS MIGHT BE HIGHER THAN USUAL DUE TO POSSIBLE 4 DAYS ACCUMULATED RESULTS.

WESTCHESTER ON TARGET FOR 3RD STRAIGHT DECLINE IN POSITIVES ABOUT A 25% DECLINE FOR COUNTY TO APPROXIMATELY 2,700 ESTIMATED FOR LAST WEEK, PENDING A SATURDAY NUMBER.

WPCNR COVID DAILY. By John F. Bailey.  June 1, 2022 UPDATED 4 P.M. E.D.T.:

As WPCNR noted over the weekend, the Covid Tracker did not give Friday, Saturday, Sunday or Monday results yesterday when it resumed reporting, with no explanation on the Tracker site.

I asked the Governor’s press office this morning why, and a press spokesperson pointed out that in a Governor Hochul covid news release on May 17 , it was announced ( it was not repeated in the Hochul announcement on Covid Friday) :

“IMPORTANT NOTE: Due to the holiday, HERDS data collection from health care facilities will be paused from Saturday, May 28 to Monday, May 30. Data from Friday, May 27 will be reported on Tuesday, May 31. Further, four days of cumulative data—from May 28 to June 1—will be reported on Wednesday, June 1. As a result, some data may appear higher than recent trends.”

WPCNR notes that the May 31 resumption of the NY Covid-19 Tracker reports results of the previous day as follows. However the Covid Tracker did not clarify that the “Previous Day” results were not Monday the 30^th results, but actually were Friday, May 27 results.

As the press spokesperson indicates for emphasis, “Four days of cumulative data-from (Saturday) May 28 to June 1- Wednesday will be reported on Wednesday, June 1. As a result some data may appear higher than recent trends.”

For the record, locally on Friday, Westchester reported 186 positive new cases of covid of 2,009 tested a 9.7% infection rate.

The Mid-Hudson Region including Westchester, Dutchess, Orange, Rockland, Ulster, Putnam and Sullivan counties recorded  409 new cases Friday on 4,200 tests, an over all positive percentage 10%  (the 4^th straight week the 7 Mid-Hud counties hit the 10% positive rate), on very limited testing that averaged 5,000 tests a day.

It should be noted that the 186 cases Friday in Westchester made for 2,466 total positives for the first 6 days of last week.

New York City all five boroughs reported 1,690 cases last Friday, down from the 3,000 a day the had been averaging. The 844 cases combined of all 7 Mid-Hudson and Nassau and Suffolk Counties are half of the New York City totals.

On the previous Saturday, Westchester reported 376 positives on 4,928 tests. So if Westchester generated that number of tests Saturday the 28th, , which WPCNR doubts because of the low tests Friday (2,009), 60% less tests than the Saturday of May 21, then you may see 225 Positives for Saturday the 28^th.

That proportionate number would give Westchester 2,691 postives May  22 to 28 which would be a 23% drop in positives from the 3,510 last week.

The 2,691 positives still works out to 384 new postives a day last week, which is a rate of 2,700 new postives a week.

WPCNR awaits the tale the last 4 days numbers will tell.

If the state lumps all the positives from 4 days into one day today, and does not break them out, you won’t know due to the (WPCNR presumed) low tests over a holiday weekend where we are.

One question that WPCNR did not get answered was why the labs stopped reporting at all. To WPCNR’s records, and we asked, but did not get a confirmation of this, the Covid Tracker has never stopped over a holiday weekend in the two years of Covid.

It reported every day.

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THE NEVER FORGOTTEN FALLEN, FRESH IN MEMORY EVER, RECOGNIZED WITH FEELING, SORROW AND COMMITMENT TO THE PROMISE THEY DIED FOR.

WPCNR AS IT HAPPENED. May 30, 2022:

The Memorial Day Parade returned to White Plains Monday and the traditional Memorial Day  Ceremony at Soldiers and Sailors Memorial Plot at White Plains Rural Ceremony returned after a two year absence due to Covid, Monday. Here is the most moving ceremony of the year motivated by a spirit of mutual caring and eternal respect.

Mayor Thomas Roach accompanied by the mother and sister of Kevin A. Cumin,  Specialist, Army, Iraq began the ceremony recognizing Mr. Cumin’s sacrifice when he was killed in action in 2004 in Iraq.

This story of this young White Plains citizen who died serving America was followed by readings of the names of 2021-22 Deceased Veterans as their names rang out living in memory in the beautiful sunlight.

New York State Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado addressed the respectful audience with a message that carried home the legacy of the veterans’ sacrifices that we the citizens of today are charged with carrying on the veterans’ commitment.

Mayor Roach introduced Grand Marshall and Speaker, Brandon C. Gerring, Captain Army National Guard who tied in the message of Memorial Day to respect of what they fought for and his own personal honor in serving them.

There was a fifth Placement of a new Wreath of Remembrance. In addition to wreaths placed by the City, the White Plains Police and Fire Fighters Home Defense Wreath, White Plains Historical Society, Daughters of American Revolution Wreath, a new wreath was placed by The Daughters of Liberty’s Legacy dedicated to the 13 service members killed in the Afghanistan Withdrawal.

Cynthia Kauffman, President of Daughters of Liberty’s Legacy read the poem In Flanders Fields  followed by the Patriotic Medley performed by the White Plains High School Band (below)

In the quiet reverence of the sun’s rays on the American flags by the graves of the immortal veterans, a Rifle Salute by the American Legion Post # 135 closed the  Ceremony followed by Taps  played by Peter Gasiewicz, Marine Infantry Veteran Bugles Across America.

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WPCNR COVID DAILY. By John F. Bailey. May 31, 2022:

The New York State Covid Tracker suspended posting daily covid positive test results for the previous days testing Saturday, Sunday and Monday of Memorial Day Weekend. It is unclear why since to this reporter’s observation they have not suspended reporting daily results in the 2 years I have been observing the daily county-by-county reports.

Hopefully the results will resume today indicating the conglomerate of new positives over Friday Saturday and Sunday and I can resume my daily Covid totals to keep you abreast of the state of covid spread, or decline. Without the daily numbers, diminished as they may be by the decline in daily testing, or not, the citizens do not have adequate awareness of the presence of the disease.

Through last Thursday, in the 5 days of last week so far reported, The week previously was the first time Westchester new covid cases had decreased in 8 weeks.

In her packaged formatted Covid briefing last week, Governor Kathy Hochul said the statewide 7-Day average case rate was the lowest since May 5th–9 days of consecutive decline cases continue, she said to trend down across all regions the previous week. This was very hopeful. But, hospitalizations for covid in Westchester were up to 110 a week ago.

I suggest that the way the state reports daily infections by region in 100,000 population segments as hope-fulfilling it may be is misleading and presents a more positive upbeat analysis of the covid infections that seduce the casual observer who does not know an individual county or region total population to divide by 100,000 increments to get the single digit number to multiply the daily positives to figure the total volume of cases.

The Mid-Hudson Region in one grid had 44 cases a day per 100,000 last Wednesday, the 25th. Mid-Hudson has a total population of 2.4 Million . Divide that by 100,000 and you get 24 increments of 100,000, and multiply 24 times 44 daily cases for the region on one day and you get 1,056 cases across the 7 counties of Westchester, Dutchess, Orange, Rockland, Ulster, Sullivan and Putnam Counties–of which Westchester had 517 new positives that day May 25, less than 6 days ago. See what I mean? It is a lot easier to say, “Oh…44 a day that’s low.” But, but, it is not low it means 1,056 cases.

Subtract Westchester 517, you get 539 for the other 6 counties which is 90 new infections average per county per day. the 100,000 moving day average is making a high figure look smaller.

In Westchester County through the 5 days of last week so far reported, given the weekend absence of daily reports to close out the week, Westchester lead the 7 counties in the Mid-Hudson with 440 new cases a day since April 4 when only lab-certified positives would be counted in reporting new cases.

Hopefully this is not a permanent disappearance of daily tracker reports. The daily count should not have been stopped.

Since April 4, the testing universes of Westchester have dropped since only lab-certified results are being recorded as new cases.

With the lower testing, since May 8, Westchester positives per day average 10% of those tested Last week the average through 5 days was still 10%.

That 10% percentage of positives has to come down otherwise Westchester will continue to produce a steady 3,000 new covid infections a week.

Infections of covid rise sharply on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays when people after a weekend begin to feel possible infection symptoms. This has been a pattern over the last 3 weeks. Through Wednesday, May 25, Westchester had hit 2,280 new positives for last week, if the 440 per day new infections continued Friday and Saturday, Westchester we would have had 3, 160 for last week, a decrease from 3,550 the second straight week infections were lowered.

At this point, in the absence of the New York Covid Tracker figures on positives for the last three days, I provide this timely observance by Katelyn Jetelina , “Your Local Epidemologist” analyzing in lucid fashion the latest information on national and local covid trends.

COVID State of Affairs: May 31 Katelyn Jetelina May 31 The global average of reported cases and deaths continue to decline across the world. There are a few exceptions, most notably in Taiwan, Portugal, Australia, and the United States. It’s not entirely clear if we can continue to judge the global situation by comparing per capita case rates across countries. Many countries are winding down systematic testing efforts and enormous country-to-country variability exists regarding at-home antigen testing, like availability, usage, and official reporting. The true story will soon (if not already) be inaccurately reflected in the case graphs that we’ve become so accustomed to following. In South Africa, the BA.4/5 wave is receding quickly. Deaths continue to increase 19%, but as the Financial Times figure shows below, each successive wave since Beta is less severe. While this is great news, it’s reported that there is even less urgency than before to get vaccinated. Given that only 31% of the population has the primary series, a big challenge lies ahead for public health officials. Many eyes are on Portugal as BA.5 takes hold. Like South Africa, Portugal preceded their BA.4/5 wave with a huge BA.1 wave. So far, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all increasing and, in fact, are much higher than in South Africa. This only solidifies that a variant’s impact in one country will not necessarily be the same in another due to variability in demographics, environment, behaviors, and immunity. United States The “battle of Omicron” is currently taking place in the U.S. After our first massive BA.1 wave, BA.2 tried to take hold only to be overtaken by BA.2.12.1. Now, BA.4 and BA.5 are gaining traction very quickly and seem to be easily outcompeting the rest. Given recent lab studies, though, this isn’t a surprise. BA.4/5 are particularly good at escaping antibodies and reinfecting people previously infected with Omicron, as well as boosted individuals. Once BA.4/5 account for the majority of cases in the U.S., we should expect another (or extended) case surge. (It’s not entirely clear why BA.4/5 have not shown up on CDC’s variant tracker yet.)(Trevor Bedford Twitter Here) Currently, we (The United States) are in a massive case surge. We are averaging 110,000 cases per day, but we know cases are vastly underreported. Using my back-of-the-napkin calculations, the true wave looks something like the graph below. These rough calculations were confirmed more eloquently in a recent pre-print in which scientists estimated the true case counts in New York City from April to May 2022. They found true case counts were 31 times higher than the official reported numbers.While it looks like we may have peaked recently, this could be simply a reflection of the holiday weekend. We will need a few days to see if and how case reporting stabilizes. Regionally, cases are stabilizing in the Northeast, but new hot spots have taken hold in the West and mid-Atlantic. South Carolina is the acceleration leader (+113%) followed by Montana (+110%), Arizona (+109%), New Mexico (+106%), and Alabama (+97%). The changing hotspot dynamic is reflected in national wastewater trends below. Regional wastewater trends, past 6 weeks (panel 1) and entire pandemic (panel 2). Purple= Midwest; Orange= Northeast; Pink=South; Green=West. Source: Biobot Analytics Hospitalizations are certainly increasing and continue to lag case trends, but remain below all previous peaks. Nationwide, 26,804 people are hospitalized, and among these, 11% are in the ICU. (This is compared to the Omicron peak, in which 17% of reported cases were in the ICU.) Deaths have increased 22% in the past two weeks, which means 368 people are dying each day. With regard to vaccine effectiveness, a strange pattern is starting to emerge—one that we may see more and more often: case rates among the boosted are higher than case rates among the vaccinated but not boosted. This is clearly displayed on the CDC website below. Don’t be surprised if boosted cases even pass the rate of unvaccinated cases soon. (CDC)This is not because boosters increase the risk of infection. Instead, several other factors are coming into play: More at home antigen testing. We don’t have a good sense, at all, about at-home testing behaviors and subsequent biases. For example, those with a booster may be more likely get a PCR than those without a booster; Unvaccinated and not boosted people were more likely to get infected during the Omicron wave, so they may be more protected against infection than the boosted right now;We know vaccine protection against infection wanes over time, and the majority of Americans were boosted more than 6 months ago now; and,Boosted people may be getting more and more comfortable letting their guard down, while other groups may have passed this stage long ago. As a result, the boosted group may truly be getting infected more now than before. Regardless of the reason, vaccines continue to protect swimmingly well against severe disease and death. For example, unvaccinated people had 17 times higher risk of dying in March and April 2022 compared to vaccinated people.(CDC) Bottom line We are in the middle of our second largest case surge and our fifth largest hospitalization surge. If you don’t want to get sick and/or want to protect those around you, wear a good mask. If you do get sick, even the sniffles, test yourself. Trust the positive test; if you’re negative, retest in 24-48 hours. If you’re high risk, please consider getting a prescription of Paxlovid (find a test-to-treat place near you here or call your physician). Stay healthy out there and break those transmission chains. Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, biostatistician, wife, and mom of two little girls. During the day she works at a nonpartisan health policy think tank, and at night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, please subscribe here: