COVID CASES DECLINE IN COUNTY. WESTCHESTER CASES POSSIBLY VASTLY UNDERCOUNTED BY PRESENTATION. WHITE PLAINS HOSPITAL CONTINUES 50% PERSONS ADDIMED TO BEDS BEING TREATED FOR COVID

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WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from NY State Covid Tracker. Analysis and Observation by John F. Bailey. April 11, 2023:

The actual growth and total new cases in the county is being undercounted,. Analysis of New York State Covid Statistics indicate.

Multiplying the published new daily case rate in Westchester the last week  indicates actually daily new case rate in Westchester the last week will result in new cases for the month of April to reach over 1,500 new cases by May 1.

In the atmosphere of “covid is over,” this hardly seems possible. The message of covid even if you catch it, is not as serious if you catch it is very comforting.

The state obviously knows it is undercounting,  but has not dramatized this covid stealthy surge  brought on by careless behavior, that by the state statistics, if you multiply them out show it quite plainly.

New cases of covid  in Westchester County Saturday dropped to the lowest total since the week ended April 1st, to 234 new lab-confirmed covid cases, (33 a day). from April 2 to April 9., averaging a daily new case rate of 3.7 per 100,000 of Westchester population.

That daily number of new covid case average when multiplied by 10.04 (the number of Westchester County population 100,000 segments, 1,004,000), yields 37 a day or 385 for a week (7 days x 37), or if that daily new case infection continues the next two weeks, Westchester will see in reality,384 infections a week.

Not 936, which is what you would get based on the 234 cases last week.

The troubling reality is the daily infection rate is not reflected in lab-tested covid case positives. I am getting an uneasy feeling that the number of covid cases are being undercounted.

(Rockland County showed a growth in daily cases last week 105 Sunday the 2nd, 792 Monday  862 on Tuesday the third, 76 on the 4th of April. The other five counties in the Mid-Hudson region did experience any infections over 50).

If the past week Westchester County daily infection rate per 100,000 shows you are actually getting 37 a day and 385 a week, Westchester will see 1,540 new cases of covid a month.

 

The new state method of only counting Covid new daily cases reported. What is the reason for this? How can more cases be happening that are not reported to the state?

White Plains Hospital Medical Center shows what has been happening the first 3 months of the year.

At White Plains Hospital Medical Center, when you look at the hospitalization of persons with covid admitted to the hospital the last week,according to the New York State Health Department, you find that last week White Plains admitted 48 persons to hospital beds, and 24 were admitted for Covid treatment.  This figure for admissions for covid has fluctuated between 40% of patients admitted to 60% a week, the last three months.

If the infections are continuing, but not serious why are hospitalizations continuing at around half of admissions for 3 months.

I spoke with a research scientist whom I met on a recent trip. In the course of conversation, I asked him what he felt about the covid situation and the strategy used to develop the vaccine.

He said the strategy in creating the vaccine was to create antibodies that would fight the infections in persons which would fight the covid virus symptoms from taking hold and making you sick. He said the vaccine created did not kill the virus-the germ giving you the disease. This was never explained by the CDC.

In my naivete, I thought we were getting a vaccine that would prevent us from getting the disease period. Like the polio vaccine.

The facts that started to come out as the vaccine rolled out: people getting sick even though they had been vaccinated were attributed to variants of the disease. And boosters were created for them.

Could it be that since virus was not being killed, but just that the virus continued to exist in the body maybe and then made us sick later on, which would account for the number of relapse, long covid. I am not saying the variants did  not infect and were made up,but to make a variant the covid germ had to be working on it by reproducing.Very frightening thought.

The anti-vaccination movement also  helped contribute. It kept the disease spreading and killing and those that did not vaccinate through the full sequence of the vaccines were those who caught it the most during last year’s covid comeback (and it was a comeback).

My discussion with the research scientist made a lot of since.

We need a cure.

Just like we need a cure for cancer.

Just like you and I have to use our heads.

And just like we need information–more of it–lots of it– not less, not statistics that are cosmetically presented positive.

I hope we are still going to work on a cure for covid that kills the germ flat-out. The research scientist I talked to makes very rational sense.

It is numbing that the disease is stronger after 3 years, and ramping up infections.

 

 

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THIS WEEK IN OUTBREAKS: FLU B ARRIVES. COVID CONTINUES IN DECLINE

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WPCNR FORCE OF INFECTION. From the publication FORCE OF INFECTION by Caitlin Rivers,Infectious disease epidemiology professor specializing in epidemics, pandemics and biosecurity. REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION

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The Sun Comes Back. Reflections on Easters Past

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EASTER MORNING SUN. WHITE PLAINS NY USA AND HARDY DAFFODILS IN FULL BLOOM

WPCNR NEWS & COMMENT. By John F. Bailey. April 9, 2023:

When I was in high school in Pleasantville, New York, the Band Director, Mr. Lockwood used to volunteer members of the Pleasantville High School Military Band for an ensemble of a half-dozen members of the band, trombones, trumpets, clarinets, flutes, snare drumsto play at the traditional sunrise service held on “Flag Hill” on Easter Sunday.

 

We would park at the top of Flag Hill on the West side of the town and trudge in  to  the slight crest of the hill the pre-sunrise chill. Some sunrises were very chilly like this morning.

We would play if memory serves me right, “Onward Christian Soldiers,” “Were you there when they crucified my Lord” and the robust  “jesus Christ is Risen Today,Halleluja” the traditional conclusion.

Being outside on the highest point in Pleasantville watching the sunrise, playing and hearing the hardy band of churchgoers and the minister’s message seemed the right way to start the Easter Sunday dinner prior to the Easter gathering on Grandmother’s house for the entire family.

For 10 years now I have attended the First Baptist Church Sunrise Service in White Plains on the grounds of the church. It provided the same feeling of wonder.

The First Baptist Church did not hold the service this year because it is in a transitional period of leadership. I was told the church hoped to start up their sunrise service again next year.

For those of you who remember those Sunrise Services of the past here WPCNR publishes this report of the First Baptist Church Sunrise Service of April 2015: followed by a poem of my own memory of the distant Flag Hill Sunrise Services of memoryl

 

I attended services in God’s Cathedral this morning in White Plains New York, USA.

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I walked out before dawn had broken on the eastern horizon. The full moon was still in the western sky as sunrise approached.

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Walking north towards the Easter Sunday Service that was to begin 6:10 Easter morning, the first harbingers of dawn were soft chirping of birds high in the trees.

Approaching the First Baptist Church the very light  green-blue flash of dawn broke across the eastern curvature of the Earth. It happens every morning, a sight that always holds the hope of endless promise for a new day every day. For every person, of every faith.

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Emboldened, the arms of dawn first light extend themselves, embracing earth, encircling arms of orange-red-yellow-every color chasing darkness caressing  beloved Earth with glow of promise, discovery, renewal – a light soft yet growing more intense and diffuse the very light green turns to light blue with warming orange glow beneath. All dawns are new and different each day, but none more revered than the dawn of an Easter Sunday.

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The arms of dawn comfort the beleaguered the bereft, the believer, the skeptic alike. Announcing the Sun is coming.

Twenty persons were gathered for the Easter Sunday Service on the old J.C. Penny estate in White Plains, now the grounds of the First Baptist Church of White Plains & Iglesia Mision Bautista.There was linger of winter in this very late Spring on the grounds and it was 33 degrees.

Pastor Tim Dalton began with this statement: “Faith is believing in spite of the evidence and watching the evidence change.

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The evocative hymn was sung with reverent wistfulness and I felt a feeling of wonder and warmth against the crisp morning… the sky to the West  above already turning blue with the dawn and the full moon on the wane.

We were there Easter morning, Allelu!

We were there Easter morning, Allelu!

Oh! Sometimes it causes me to tremble, tremble, tremble

We were there Easter morning, Allelu!

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After a solemn opening prayer delivered by the Pastor  (spoken as if he was one of the flock), saying what each of us came and probably felt on this morning; what the sunrise today represented; what the resurrection of Jesus of Nazereth signified, as the dawn rose glowing in the East. The  confluence of the dawn  presented an infusion of essence into the souls arriving to mark this special dawn.

A litany followed, the significance of the belief in the resurrection was articulated by response in the last three lines:

PEOPLE: TAKE HOLD OF YOUR COURAGE; RELEASE YOUR FEARS,

Pastor: Unleash the buried song within your souls; look death straight in the eye; walk on with confidence.

PEOPLE: For Christ the Lord is risen! Christ is risen for you!

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A guitarist and three singers sang a beautiful hymn in Spanish. Hearing the eloquence of these versus in the haunting melody of guitar and the romance language conveyed the sweetness of the day:

Jesucristo,

Ya vencio la muerte;

Con poder glorioso

Ha resucitado.

Donde, oh muerte,

Donde esta tu triunfo?

Donde, oh sepulcro,

Donde tu Victoria?

El promote

Que tambien nosotros

Resucitaremos, Gloria, aleluya

 

Pastor Dalton  read John 20:1-18 which had the eyewitness impact of  the event that is recalled every year – and in the beginning for to recall the event was to invite imprisonment and death. Here are some of the words of the report of the Apostle John.

As Pastor Tim read the scripture from  about 20 minutes to 7, the disk of the rising sun began to rise slowly in a blazing halo of brilliant yellow on the dark hills to the east:

Early on the first day of the week, while it was still dark, Mary Magdalene came to the tomb and saw that the stone had been removed from the tomb. So she ran and went to Simon Peter and the other disciple, the one whom Jesus loved, and said to them, “They have taken the Lord out of the tomb, and we do not know where they have laid him.”

Then Peter and the other disciple set out and went toward the tomb. The two were running together, but the other disciple outran Peter and reached the tomb first.  He bent down to look in (the tomb) and saw the linen wrappings lying there, but he did not go in (the tomb). Then Simon Peter came, following him (the first disciple), and went into the tomb.

He saw the linen wrappings lying there, and the cloth that had been on Jesus’ head, not lying with the linen wrappings but rolled up in a place by itself. Then the other disciple, who reached the tomb first, also went in, and he saw and believed; for as yet they did not understand the scripture, that he must rise from the dead.

But Mary  (Magdalene) stood weeping outside the tomb. As she wept, she bent over to look into the tomb; and she saw two angels in white, sitting where the body of Jesus had been lying, one at the head and the other at the feet.

They said to her, “Woman why are you weeping?” She said to them, “They have taken away my Lord, and I do not know where they have laid him.”

When she had said this, she turned around and saw Jesus standing there, but she did not know it was Jesus. Jesus said to her, “Woman why are you weeping? Who are you looking for?” Supposing him to be the gardener she said to him, “Sir, if you have carried him away, tell me where you have laid him, and I will take him away.”

Jesus said to her, “Do not hold on to me, because I have not yet ascended to the Father. But go to my brothers and say to them, “I am ascending to my Father and your Father, to my God and your God.”

Mary Magalene went and announced to the disciples, “I have seen the Lord” and she told them that he had said these things to her.

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The passages were read Spanish, and as the sun rose brighter than an object you see  just above the horizon, the singers and guitarist performed Gloria, Gloria Aleluya that featured this verse of hope:

Con ejercitos no gana sus

Victorias el Senior;

Ni con armas lucha contra

Satanas, el Tentador,

Lo potencia del Espiritu,

Ha dicho el Dios de amor,

Es lo que vencera.

The Sun disc fully risen, the Pastor asked the souls present to look and listen to the sounds and enjoy the sights of God’s creations around them.  Chirping of birds  was heard. Two seagulls flew west overhead with the dawn. Even a rabbit was seen to observe from some distance away. (Can you spot the rabbit below?)

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The  Group joined for a final hymn, Lord of the Dance, a song written by the Shaker community in the 19th century,  a graphic, but joyous song and autobiography of Jesus of Nazareth , a fitting coda on the significance of this morning. I quote the last three verses:

I danced on the Sabbath when I cured the lame,

The holy people said it was a shame;

They whipped and they stripped and they hung me high;

And they left me there on a cross to die.

I danced on a Friday and the sky turned black;

it’s hard to dance with the devil on your back;

they buried my body and they thought I’d gone,

but I am the dance and I still go on.

They cut me down and I leapt up high,

I am the life that’ll never never die;

I’ll live in you if you’ll live in me;

I am the Lord of the Dance, said he.

Dance, then, wherever you may be;

I am the Lord of the Dance, said he.

And I’ll lead you all wherever you may be

And I’ll lead you all in the dance, said he.

Pastor Dalton closed the sunrise ceremony encouraging all advising that the message of this day is to live lives of mercy, of caring, of tolerance, and working towards the good

 

Sunrise Service

 

In the crisp bite of early dawn

Roused by the ever loyal mom

To a warm breakfast then driven to a school rendezvous on the way

To play Jesus Christ is Risen Today .

Up and through the dark back road to old Flag Hill above the Saw Mill

We were driven, six chosen musicians to play fanfare

Celebrating the resurrection of long ago as first rays of dawn broke the chill.

After we played our brassy peal of annunciation

The pastor announced simply, “He has risen” and said an invocation,

On the downbeat from our instructor,

We played the joyous hymn and song burst forth

From the tiny band, voices vibrant beyond talent

Took up the simple refrain, “Je US CHRIST has riSEN toDAAY”

With each verse our brass tones played fuller, bolder triumphant

Expanding our chests with pride, courage and steadfast melody.

From crisp wind no longer did we cower.

Sun blaze rose in the east across our town,

Upon the last jubilant coda, the echoes did sound

Descending across the valley below and above to the high tension tower

In somber words the pastor’s message told the story

Of empty tomb, of the incredible happening

And for the rest of the day we who had played

Announcing the news in song and peal of brass

Had recreated that time of myth that has endured in faith

The thought of which renews us still that our time here will not from memory pass.

In the holiday dinner that would follow,

Cousins, aunts and uncles would gather

With the matriarch of the family.

Today we are scattered,

Do not gather together as we did then in harmony

Still I feel the warmth of Easters past

When those who have departed we think of once more

And how they created a family that would last.

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IT’S HOT CROSS BUNS TIME!

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Hot out of the oven from The Kneaded Bread Port Chester NY USA–Chockful of raisins, a chewy subtle crumb, perfectly browned and the tasty sugary zestiest white frosting I remember.

When did they originate?

Saxons baked buns with crosses to pay respect to Eostre, the goddess of dawn.

The bun made appearances in Greek, Druid and Phoenician culture. Archaeologists found them in the ruins of Pompeii. The loaves, too, bore a cross.

In the 14th century, an Anglican monk baked buns and distributed them to poor on Good Friday. The cross on each bun honored the crucifixion of Jesus Christ.

Hot cross buns are a celebration of the end of Lent. The sweet buns were and still are a welcome treat after the 40 days of fasting.

The Hot Cross Bun has its legends, too:

  • They protect from evil spirits
  • Hang them from rafters on Good Friday and the legend says they stay fresh for next Good Friday
  • They strengthen friendships when you share them. (I let Brenda Starr have one.)

I also remember fondly that old Golden Record 45 from childhood, very scratchy, listening to the Hot Cross Buns song:

“Hot cross buns
Hot cross buns
One a penny
Two a penny
Hot cross buns
If you have no daughters give them to your sons
One a penny
Two a penny
Hot cross buns

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WHITE PLAINS WEEK JOHN BAILEY’S APRIL 7 REPORT ON FIOS CH. 45, OPTIMUM WHITE PLAINS CH. 76 & WWW.WPCOMMUNITYMEDIA.ORG

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J

JOHN BAILEY AND THE NEWS ON

WHY WE FORGET ABOUT PAST CATASTROPHES : INDIFFERENCE BROUGHT ON BY MEDIA OVERCOVERAGE.

DAILY RATE OF INFECTIONS IN WESTCHESTER CREEPING UP OVER 1,700 BY END OF APRIL

PLUS VIDEO OF MAYOR TOM ROACH ON THE FINANCIAL STATE OF THE CITY AND COUNCILWOMAN JEN PUJA AND COUNCILMAN JOHN MARTIN ON PASSAGE OF THE NEW CELL TOWER ORDINANCE.

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Holtec to “Expedite” Dump of Indian Point Radioactive wastewater into Hudson River in May. County Executive CALLS IT “OUTRAGEOUS

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County Executive George Latimer is releasing the following statement regarding Holtec informing the Indian Point Energy Center Decommissioning Oversight Board its plan to begin releasing treated wastewater from the shutdown nuclear power plant into the Hudson River next month.

“The announcement by Holtec to expedite this plan, in the midst of ongoing discussions with State officials, community stakeholders and local municipalities, is an outrageous one.

The impacted communities have far too much at stake for any treated water dumping to occur on a timeline quicker than what was expected.

It is a mistake for Holtec to act before full public vetting of all options and acting without convincing residents and local governments why the other options have been overridden for consideration.

Through the Indian Point Decommissioning Board, which the County has a seat at the table on, the County is requesting an exact list of all elements and components which will be tested for.

I am urging Holtec and all parties involved to suspend their current plans, and to hold continued conversations on this decision and any subsequent actions that may be taken in order to ensure that residents of and visitors to our beautiful, scenic riverfronts are best protected.”

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CON ED RATES CONTINUE LOWER THAN ESCOS AND SUSTAINABLE WESTCHESTER RATES IN RECENT MONTHS

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  • WPCNR THE LETTER TICKER. From Greenburgh Supervisor Paul Feiner. April 5, 2023:

On the 5th of each month the town of Greenburgh posts comparisons on the Greenburgh website – Con Ed rates vs Sustainable Westchester rates. Residents of 29 municipalities in Westchester- including Greenburgh -have enrolled in the ESCO.  Residents are automatically enrolled unless they opt out.  Sustainable Westchester rates can’t go up or down until October 2024. Con Ed rates can fluctuate.  Sustainable Westchester purchases green power (solar, wind)–that is good for the environment.

In recent months Con Ed rates have been lower than the ESCO rates.  In March the average Con Ed standard rates was 8.01 cents per kWh.   The rates for Sustainable Westchester’s Westchester Power ESCO was 15.13 cents per kWh.  Sustainable Westchester also offers residents in the 29 municipalities a non green option which was 13.36 per kWh.

Sustainable Westchester has agreed to send a letter to residents in each of the 29 municipalities advising them that Con Ed rates are currently lower than the ESCOs and providing ratepayers with information as to how to opt out if they wish to.   People can opt in or out anytime.  The letter from Sustainable Westchester should be sent out next week.

This is what I posted on the town website (click  link). The information was provided by Sustainable Westchester

https://greenburghny.com/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=1947

PAUL FEINER
Greenburgh Town Supervisor

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