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WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from NY State Covid Tracker. Analysis and Observation by John F. Bailey. April 11, 2023:

The actual growth and total new cases in the county is being undercounted,. Analysis of New York State Covid Statistics indicate.

Multiplying the published new daily case rate in Westchester the last week  indicates actually daily new case rate in Westchester the last week will result in new cases for the month of April to reach over 1,500 new cases by May 1.

In the atmosphere of “covid is over,” this hardly seems possible. The message of covid even if you catch it, is not as serious if you catch it is very comforting.

The state obviously knows it is undercounting,  but has not dramatized this covid stealthy surge  brought on by careless behavior, that by the state statistics, if you multiply them out show it quite plainly.

New cases of covid  in Westchester County Saturday dropped to the lowest total since the week ended April 1st, to 234 new lab-confirmed covid cases, (33 a day). from April 2 to April 9., averaging a daily new case rate of 3.7 per 100,000 of Westchester population.

That daily number of new covid case average when multiplied by 10.04 (the number of Westchester County population 100,000 segments, 1,004,000), yields 37 a day or 385 for a week (7 days x 37), or if that daily new case infection continues the next two weeks, Westchester will see in reality,384 infections a week.

Not 936, which is what you would get based on the 234 cases last week.

The troubling reality is the daily infection rate is not reflected in lab-tested covid case positives. I am getting an uneasy feeling that the number of covid cases are being undercounted.

(Rockland County showed a growth in daily cases last week 105 Sunday the 2nd, 792 Monday  862 on Tuesday the third, 76 on the 4th of April. The other five counties in the Mid-Hudson region did experience any infections over 50).

If the past week Westchester County daily infection rate per 100,000 shows you are actually getting 37 a day and 385 a week, Westchester will see 1,540 new cases of covid a month.

The new state method of only counting Covid new daily cases reported. What is the reason for this? How can more cases be happening that are not reported to the state?

White Plains Hospital Medical Center shows what has been happening the first 3 months of the year.

At White Plains Hospital Medical Center, when you look at the hospitalization of persons with covid admitted to the hospital the last week,according to the New York State Health Department, you find that last week White Plains admitted 48 persons to hospital beds, and 24 were admitted for Covid treatment.  This figure for admissions for covid has fluctuated between 40% of patients admitted to 60% a week, the last three months.

If the infections are continuing, but not serious why are hospitalizations continuing at around half of admissions for 3 months.

I spoke with a research scientist whom I met on a recent trip. In the course of conversation, I asked him what he felt about the covid situation and the strategy used to develop the vaccine.

He said the strategy in creating the vaccine was to create antibodies that would fight the infections in persons which would fight the covid virus symptoms from taking hold and making you sick. He said the vaccine created did not kill the virus-the germ giving you the disease. This was never explained by the CDC.

In my naivete, I thought we were getting a vaccine that would prevent us from getting the disease period. Like the polio vaccine.

The facts that started to come out as the vaccine rolled out: people getting sick even though they had been vaccinated were attributed to variants of the disease. And boosters were created for them.

Could it be that since virus was not being killed, but just that the virus continued to exist in the body maybe and then made us sick later on, which would account for the number of relapse, long covid. I am not saying the variants did  not infect and were made up,but to make a variant the covid germ had to be working on it by reproducing.Very frightening thought.

The anti-vaccination movement also  helped contribute. It kept the disease spreading and killing and those that did not vaccinate through the full sequence of the vaccines were those who caught it the most during last year’s covid comeback (and it was a comeback).

My discussion with the research scientist made a lot of since.

We need a cure.

Just like we need a cure for cancer.

Just like you and I have to use our heads.

And just like we need information–more of it–lots of it– not less, not statistics that are cosmetically presented positive.

I hope we are still going to work on a cure for covid that kills the germ flat-out. The research scientist I talked to makes very rational sense.

It is numbing that the disease is stronger after 3 years, and ramping up infections.