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DAILY TRACKER REPORTED  NEW CASES DID NOT ADD STATE VERIFIED ANTIGEN TESTS

AUGUST 1-29 WESTCHESTER NEW DAILY CASES: 3,500 AND RISING, not 2,000, AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY 7-DAY AVERAGE POSITIVE CASE RATE

SCHOOL OPENING, SOCIALIZING, 4 DAY WEEKEND, RELIGIOUS HOLIDAYS TO TAKE PLACE IN A COVID  COMMUNITY PETRI DISH OF HIGH SPREAD VARIANTS. BE WARY

COUNTY OFFICIALS ACROSS THE STATE MAY HAVE BEEN SERIOUSLY MISLEAD BY THE RAPIDITY OF THE SPREAD OF THE DISEASE SINCE AFTER THEE JULY 4^TH HOLIDAY

WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from New York Covid Tracker New Data Base. Observation & Comment by John F. Bailey. September 2, 2023

Westchester County has been given a sanitized version of how covid cases are spreading in the county, because new cases have been undereported by not including state verified antigen test positives.

Yesterday September 1, the statewide covid map of covid cases in New York State Counties changed to a new format, show the big orange  map of New York State counties, but eliminating the daily new line score of  New Positives,k percentage of positives, daily new cases by 100,000 of population. It reported the previous day new case number for every county. It was a  way a reporter could keep track of how fast  or slow the covid cases were spreading in your county. The assumption was automatic that the new daily cases were the new daily cases in Westchester (or any county

Friday late in the afternoon, I checked  the tracker and the former format was gone. Gone was the old reliable line score of new cases. YOU COULD NOT SEE A TOTAL!

Assuming there was just a lag due to the change in the new format, I downloaded the total data grid and I WAS SHOCKED, SHOCKED  to  discover  the new case count for August 29  was 135 new positive covid cases made up of 88 Positive PCR tests, and 47 Antigen Test positives.

It dawned on me the Covid 19  Tracker has been a positive spin of results this last year.

Why because  they have not included state confirmed antigen tests of people coming in panicked they are positive or worse, feeling sick so they took an antigen tests.

There is no comfortable way to say this: The number of new antigen tests positives reported to the state was not included in “New Positives” on the Covid Tracker even though they were verified positives, no matter how unintentional the somewhat positive “feel” of the lower new cases every week gave the impression the disease was not coming back, no matter how unintentional, as I say.

, . You could get a rough estimate by multiply Westchester County average daily cases by 100,000 which I have done on this site. But still that falls short way short of the actual number of new cases.

But in the last month and a half, new antigen positives have averaged 65% of all new cases, but they were not included in new daily cases.

From August 1 through August 29 according to the downloaded New York State Department Data, There have been  2,112  new PCR cases of Covid in Westchester County, and 1,360 Antigen covid positive cases. 3,472 for the month!

New Antigen Positives reported to the state in August so far account for 65% more cases that were not included in the former New York State County Covid Tracker map as new positives.

They were included on the data set: here is the data set for August 29 for Westchester County: 135 cases. The highest total of the month,

This chance discovery lead me to see how long this reporting of positives in Westchester has been going on. There is a curious inconsistency.

In introducing the September 1 format change the New York State Health Department explained:

New York State Statewide COVID-19 Testing

This dataset includes information on the number of positive tests of individuals for COVID-19 infection performed in New York State beginning March 1, 2020, when the first case of COVID-19 was identified in the state. The primary goal of publishing this dataset is to provide users timely information about local disease spread and reporting of positive cases. The data will be updated daily, reflecting tests reported by 12:00 am (midnight) three days prior. Data are published on a three-day lag in order to allow all test results to be reported.

Reporting of SARS-CoV2 laboratory testing results is mandated under Part 2 of the New York State Sanitary Code. Clinical laboratories, as defined in Public Health Law (PHL) § 571 electronically report test results to the New York State Department of Health (DOH) via the Electronic Clinical Laboratory Reporting System (ECLRS). The DOH Division of Epidemiology’s Bureau of Surveillance and Data System (BSDS) monitors ECLRS reporting and ensures that all results are accurate.

Test counts are based on specimen collection date. A person may have multiple specimens tested on one day, these would be counted one time, i.e., if two specimens are collected from an individual at the same time and then evaluated, the outcome of the evaluation of those two samples to diagnose the individual is counted as a single test of one person, even though the specimens may be tested separately. All positive test results that are at least 90 days apart are counted as cases/new positives.

New positive test counts are assigned to a county based on this order of preference: 1) the patient’s address, 2) the ordering healthcare provider/campus address, or 3) the ordering facility/campus address.

TOTAL POSITIVES ARE DEFINED AS :

“The number of new positive PCR (POLYMERASE CHAIN REACTION) tests for covid-19 infection on the test date in each county PCR tests date.

NEW POSTIVE ANTIGEN TESTS ARE DEFINED AS:

“The number of new positives Antigen Tests for covid 19 infection on the test date in each county. Antigen tests are a subset of total new positives.(Italics provided by the Editor)

They have been there all along and counted for months. But this was not told the way the data on the tracker presented them.

The Reality line for August  far worse going into September “socials” this weekend and the next 4 weeks. 

The month is seeing  vigorous infections at the start of each week and sustaining the surge every  day through the week.

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WPCNR QUILL & EYESHADE. Analysis & Commentary By John F. Bailey. September 1, 2023:

The July sales tax figures are in for White Plains New York USA, but frankly, I’m puzzled.

They should be soaring. But they are flat.

The city  started its 2023-24 fiscal year  in July sales tax dollars  up 2 % the first month.

The inflation was 8% through all of 2022.  The first 7 months of 2023, the inflation rate (adding to the prices of 2022, not diminishing the prices, but growing prices), is 4.6.

Why is our sales taxes not doing better is my bewilderment.

Corporations killed us by raising prices (blamed on shortages) and made layoffs to boost profitability. The bottom line counts in business, always. Not you.

If you note how prices soared in 2022 and continued to soar in the first 7 months of 2023 you would think White Plains would start OFF in July with at least a 10% to 12% gain. 

Is this a red flag that people are not spending like they usually do? Has business greed created a lack of demand? That is a real question.

The Department of NY State Taxation and Finance in July reported White Plains received $32,369,358  compared to $31,847,884 last July.

That is a gain of only 2% and inflation is running 12.6% over the last 19 months.

Westchester County however is down 3% the first 7 months of this fiscal year starting in January earning $500.1 million compared to 504.8 million after 7 months of 2022. that is down 1%.

The county has to be panicked.  Where is all the revenue from all that nasty inflation. Good question, isn’t it?

At this point the county should make about 1 billion in sales taxes, but still with earnings reports from companies glowing from Wall Street,where is the consumer spending lift for towns, cities and counties in the market place where it counts?  Has that dried up?

Is it being under reported by businesses? That would not surprise me.

Are  Westchester consumers who are buying  paying 12% more but spending less?

I reckon consumers have cut their spending on food, gasoline, vacations, travel, entertainment by at least 12%. Because as prices go up, your wages do not automatically follow.

Corporations cry poverty. Make layoffs and continue to wallow in long term debt to expand their businesses. Airlines are a great example of that. So are oil companies. Auto companies. Entertainment companies. Pharmaceutical companies. Health Businesses.

The inflation index shows you how much expenses go up. When was the last time inflation reduced prices? But lack of demand does. The Great Depression of the 1930s did that.

We do not see what consumers are actually spending of their income month to month, let alone what that income has been reduced in purchasing power. The state data I have looked at  the last 23 years in reporting sales tax revenues as barometers of the city economy do not allow White Plains  to find out what businesses are down or up. This has long been the lament of previous White Plains Budget Directors.

Real estate the bellwether of the Westchester economy and White Plains economy is in the doldrums. There is no easy fix.

That is because of the Federal Reserve obsession  on lowering inflation to 2% that has produced 7% mortgages, killing the housing market capital available (savings for a home of your own).

Banks  those “benefactors” of the public have become very picky. If you want to buy a home at a price the bank feels is above market value they may turn down your mortgage.

This has created a stagnant market and a liquidity squeeze on homebuyers and sellers. Real estate has no ability to restart itself if there is no willing and able to buy new home seekers out there.

Nesteggs counted on as being there  for retirement, (thanks to a sale of one’s home) could turn out to be very underestimated  and vulnerable because of being forced to sell.

The long mortgages at 7% you face, (as a new buyer) the loss of your home if your ability to pay the mortgage disappears. You lose everything thanks to the cruelty of foreclosure.

Meanwhile the federal reserve is still vowing higher interest rates to tamp inflation down to 2%.

It is too early to tell whether the county makes their budget or not or has created another deficit by being as usual way overly optimistic.

Where is consumer confidence? I think the 2% increase in White Plains is very disappointing.

I don’t see it when 12% inflation over the year hardly moves your economic sales tax revenues only 2%  or 1% less for the County.

The city finance department has to watch the fall numbers.

So does Westchester County. Do not count that billion dollar surplus yet. Pay attention to crafting the 2024 budget so you do not depend on revenue you aren’t going to have but think it will be there, maybe?

That is one tradition that the City of White Plains adheres to. The city never budgets more in revenue than they received the previous year.

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 Statement from NY Governor Kathy Hochul

“EARLIER TODAY I MET, FOR MORE THAN TWO HOURS, WITH SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IN THE WEST WING OF THE WHITE HOUSE FOR A FRANK AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATION ABOUT HOW THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN, AND MUST, PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE PEOPLE OF NEW YORK AS WE WORK TO ADDRESS THE ONGOING INFLUX OF ASYLUM SEEKERS AND MIGRANTS.

WE FOCUSED ON A NUMBER OF IMMEDIATE AND TANGIBLE ACTIONS, INCLUDING SEVERAL THAT WOULD ALLOW MORE INDIVIDUALS TO WORK LEGALLY IN THE UNITED STATES, AS WELL AS LONG-TERM ACTIONS TO END THIS CRISIS. 

“AS NEW YORKERS KNOW, SECURING EXPEDITED WORK AUTHORIZATION FOR ASYLUM SEEKERS AND MIGRANTS HAS BEEN AND REMAINS MY TOP PRIORITY. IT IS THE ONLY WAY TO HELP ASYLUM SEEKERS BECOME SELF-SUSTAINING, SO THEY CAN MOVE INTO PERMANENT HOUSING. I AM ESPECIALLY PLEASED THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS AGREED TO PROVIDE PERSONNEL, DATA, AND RESOURCES TO IDENTIFY THE THOUSANDS OF INDIVIDUALS IN NEW YORK WHO ARE ALREADY ELIGIBLE, BUT HAVE NOT YET APPLIED, FOR WORK AUTHORIZATION. 

“THIS IS A CRITICAL FIRST STEP BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE: IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO FULLY ADDRESS THIS CRISIS OR PROVIDE THE LEVEL OF SUPPORT THAT NEW YORKERS NEED AND DESERVE.

THAT IS WHY IN THE DAYS AHEAD I WILL CONTINUE WORKING TO SECURE EXPEDITED WORK AUTHORIZATION FOR EVEN MORE INDIVIDUALS, EXPANDED FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR NEW YORK, AND LONG-OVERDUE IMMIGRATION REFORMS.

I AM GRATEFUL TO THE WHITE HOUSE FOR AGREEING TO CONTINUE THESE PRODUCTIVE DISCUSSIONS AND STRENGTHENING THE PARTNERSHIP AT ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT TO RESPOND TO THIS CRISIS.”

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The Blue Supermoon of August (Article by Alan Dyer) August ends with the second Full Moon of the month, and it’s an extra-close perigee Moon. It’s a “blue Moon” that’s also a “supermoon”. Pity there’s no lunar eclipse as well! The August 30 Moon is the full Moon closest to Earth and so the largest for 2023, winning it the popular moniker of a supermoon…

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