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DAILY TRACKER REPORTED NEW CASES DID NOT ADD STATE VERIFIED ANTIGEN TESTS
AUGUST 1-29 WESTCHESTER NEW DAILY CASES: 3,500 AND RISING, not 2,000, AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY 7-DAY AVERAGE POSITIVE CASE RATE
SCHOOL OPENING, SOCIALIZING, 4 DAY WEEKEND, RELIGIOUS HOLIDAYS TO TAKE PLACE IN A COVID COMMUNITY PETRI DISH OF HIGH SPREAD VARIANTS. BE WARY
COUNTY OFFICIALS ACROSS THE STATE MAY HAVE BEEN SERIOUSLY MISLEAD BY THE RAPIDITY OF THE SPREAD OF THE DISEASE SINCE AFTER THEE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY
WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from New York Covid Tracker New Data Base. Observation & Comment by John F. Bailey. September 2, 2023
Westchester County has been given a sanitized version of how covid cases are spreading in the county, because new cases have been undereported by not including state verified antigen test positives.
Yesterday September 1, the statewide covid map of covid cases in New York State Counties changed to a new format, show the big orange map of New York State counties, but eliminating the daily new line score of New Positives,k percentage of positives, daily new cases by 100,000 of population. It reported the previous day new case number for every county. It was a way a reporter could keep track of how fast or slow the covid cases were spreading in your county. The assumption was automatic that the new daily cases were the new daily cases in Westchester (or any county
Friday late in the afternoon, I checked the tracker and the former format was gone. Gone was the old reliable line score of new cases. YOU COULD NOT SEE A TOTAL!
Assuming there was just a lag due to the change in the new format, I downloaded the total data grid and I WAS SHOCKED, SHOCKED to discover the new case count for August 29 was 135 new positive covid cases made up of 88 Positive PCR tests, and 47 Antigen Test positives.
It dawned on me the Covid 19 Tracker has been a positive spin of results this last year.
Why because they have not included state confirmed antigen tests of people coming in panicked they are positive or worse, feeling sick so they took an antigen tests.
There is no comfortable way to say this: The number of new antigen tests positives reported to the state was not included in “New Positives” on the Covid Tracker even though they were verified positives, no matter how unintentional the somewhat positive “feel” of the lower new cases every week gave the impression the disease was not coming back, no matter how unintentional, as I say.
, . You could get a rough estimate by multiply Westchester County average daily cases by 100,000 which I have done on this site. But still that falls short way short of the actual number of new cases.
But in the last month and a half, new antigen positives have averaged 65% of all new cases, but they were not included in new daily cases.
From August 1 through August 29 according to the downloaded New York State Department Data, There have been 2,112 new PCR cases of Covid in Westchester County, and 1,360 Antigen covid positive cases. 3,472 for the month!
New Antigen Positives reported to the state in August so far account for 65% more cases that were not included in the former New York State County Covid Tracker map as new positives.
They were included on the data set: here is the data set for August 29 for Westchester County: 135 cases. The highest total of the month,
This chance discovery lead me to see how long this reporting of positives in Westchester has been going on. There is a curious inconsistency.
In introducing the September 1 format change the New York State Health Department explained:
New York State Statewide COVID-19 Testing
This dataset includes information on the number of positive tests of individuals for COVID-19 infection performed in New York State beginning March 1, 2020, when the first case of COVID-19 was identified in the state. The primary goal of publishing this dataset is to provide users timely information about local disease spread and reporting of positive cases. The data will be updated daily, reflecting tests reported by 12:00 am (midnight) three days prior. Data are published on a three-day lag in order to allow all test results to be reported.
Reporting of SARS-CoV2 laboratory testing results is mandated under Part 2 of the New York State Sanitary Code. Clinical laboratories, as defined in Public Health Law (PHL) § 571 electronically report test results to the New York State Department of Health (DOH) via the Electronic Clinical Laboratory Reporting System (ECLRS). The DOH Division of Epidemiology’s Bureau of Surveillance and Data System (BSDS) monitors ECLRS reporting and ensures that all results are accurate.
Test counts are based on specimen collection date. A person may have multiple specimens tested on one day, these would be counted one time, i.e., if two specimens are collected from an individual at the same time and then evaluated, the outcome of the evaluation of those two samples to diagnose the individual is counted as a single test of one person, even though the specimens may be tested separately. All positive test results that are at least 90 days apart are counted as cases/new positives.
New positive test counts are assigned to a county based on this order of preference: 1) the patient’s address, 2) the ordering healthcare provider/campus address, or 3) the ordering facility/campus address.
TOTAL POSITIVES ARE DEFINED AS :
“The number of new positive PCR (POLYMERASE CHAIN REACTION) tests for covid-19 infection on the test date in each county PCR tests date.
NEW POSTIVE ANTIGEN TESTS ARE DEFINED AS:
“The number of new positives Antigen Tests for covid 19 infection on the test date in each county. Antigen tests are a subset of total new positives.(Italics provided by the Editor)
They have been there all along and counted for months. But this was not told the way the data on the tracker presented them.
The Reality line for August far worse going into September “socials” this weekend and the next 4 weeks.
The month is seeing vigorous infections at the start of each week and sustaining the surge every day through the week.