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WPCNR COVID DAILY. From the NY State Covid Tracker. Observations and Analysis by John F. Bailey. May 17, 2022:

The “Red Tide”  is rising.

Positives case percentages of those testing positive for covid are averaging 10% for each of the 9 counties around New York. As testing numbers climb, that 10% level remains the level infected how many are tested. This is not good.

It means more people should be testing and are not for whatever personal reasons.




Westchester is now considered a high COVID transmission county, according to data from the Center for Disease Control in a news release Monday morning.

According to the CDC specific Westchester degree of spread, “the county is seeing levels of cases of hospitalizations that are putting a strain on the local health care system.”

The CDC, along with the state health department, now recommends masks be worn indoors.  In his briefing on Covid Monday  afternoon, Westchester County Executive George Latimer  said he was considering  requiring masking again in County facility office buildings, but was not ready to bring masks back when beaches open Memorial Day Weekend, and County Pools in July.

 He  said  he was not at this time considering covid precautions at county festival events and public county-sponsored events, but said he would look at that.

The County  Executive when asked about Scarsdale schools  urging parents to have their children wear masks but still making it an option not to mask, he said this was up to individual school districts which are under state jurisdiction.

 Scarsdale experienced 207 active cases averaging 28 new daily cases a day in the two weeks ended Saturday May 14.

Mr. Latimer said he would be reconvening meetings with Westchester School Superintendents to discuss their individual district covid penetration  and await state guidance which controls conditions in the schools.

The Scarsdale Public Schools issued this statement on their website Monday:

“Unfortunately, this weekend Westchester County was designated as a high transmission county according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) county data. As a reminder, the Community Level is high because the levels of COVID-19 hospitalizations, cases, and patients in hospital beds are a strain on the local health system. At this level of transmission, both the CDC and the State Health Department recommend that individuals wear masks in indoor settings, including K-12 schools. In addition to the individual protection masks provide, they can also help to lessen the burden on our health care system by slowing the spread. So, while the CDC and NYS are no longer mandating masking, they do suggest it. Therefore, we are also suggesting, but not mandating, masking as a preventive step for as long as our community level remains High. We do require that families, staff, and students respect the choices individuals within our school community make with regard to masking.

Scarsdale has seen an increase in the number of cases in the District. Since May 2, 2022, there have been 232 student cases and 21 staff cases.  This is about double the number we saw in the previous two weeks. The cases are sporadic across grades and schools and usually take the form of small clusters on a grade level.

The District has and will continue to follow its mitigation strategies including those outlined in our ventilation plan, procedures for returning to school when sick or symptomatic, informing grade levels when there are more than two cases on a grade level, and sending test kits home to larger groups of students when additional cases are detected. Please remember families can also request test kits from our school nurses at any time, they can be sent home with students or left at the safety monitor station for pick up. At this time, the District has no plans to make any changes to our day-to-day.  

As you know, we are eagerly anticipating the traditional events and celebrations between now and the end of the year. These gatherings will bring together many people, including extended families and individuals who aren’t frequently in our schools. As a result, these types of events do hold an increased likelihood of spreading COVID-19. We encourage the community to consider wearing masks when at these larger indoor events, strongly encourage anyone at higher risk to wear a mask, and ask participants to respect each other’s choices. We also require anyone recovering from COVID to wear a mask in the 6-10 day window after testing positive. Likewise, anyone who has been recently exposed should wear a mask.”

For the record, since September of the school year in the Scarsdale District, 1,073 students, 110 teachers, and 149 staff, 1,332 have reported positive with covid of  5,184 total students and teachers. This is a school wide population positive % over 8-1/2 months of 26%

The White Plains Schools issued this statement on safety today after the CDC announcement:

“Due to the increase in COVID-19 throughout our region, WPCSD strongly encourages all members of the WPCSD education community to wear masks when in closed public settings.

We continue to monitor our schools and remain in close contact with our state and local health officials. If we need to increase additional mitigation measures, we will communicate immediately.

Starting this week, antigen testing will be sent home with your children, on Thursday/Friday of each week, until the end of the school year. We strongly recommend that you screen your child on Sunday or Monday before sending them to school.

As we approach the end of the school year and gather to celebrate our students’ accomplishments, it’s important that we protect our students, staff, and keep our community at large safe.”

Note: though the White Plains, district is “encouraging”  mask wearing in public closed settings, they are not mandating mandatory masks in schools yet with six weeks to go in the school year.

For the record the Covid School Covid Report reports that from September through May 16, today, the White Plains City School District has  2,201 students, teachers and staff test positive for a total student, teacher and staff universe of  7,974, a percentage of 28%.

In the last two weeks of school, White Plains has reported 159 students, teachers and staff testing positive  (110 students,25 teachers, 24 staff) from May 10 to 16 , and in the first 7 days, May 3 to 10, 47 students, 12 teachers and 7 staff.

Let’s go next door to Harrison, that school district has 2,575 students and faculty and in 8-1/2 months they have experienced  1,092 positives, 42% of the district universe. Even if they have more staff than just teachers, their percentage of positives would still be spreading in the mid 30s % as socialization in the  balmy weather continues.

Well spreading in the schools is not going to stop.

At the present continuance of no masking behavior these weekly growing rates will sustain themselves most likely,  Because no leader in the county of any city, town, or village is moving to tell people what they must do to slow the spread and enforcing preventive spread practices.

Across Westchester County, this school spread is more instructive over 8-1/2 months about what practices or failure to do things may be contributing significantly to Red Tide.

In all the public school districts in Westchester County, 29,350 students teachers and staff have tested positive since September.

In the last two weeks May 3 to May 16, 3,323  students have tested positive across the county–1,697  tested positive  the last 7 days, with 510  of them positive the week of may 3 to 10.

It also points that by giving the 2nd week first the chart creates the  impression, whether intentional or not,  that in the two weeks is going down when it is exactly the opposite. The stats are given like this for every county and district in the state on the State School Covid Report.

SuffolkNassau, Dutchess, Orange and Putnam counties are also considered high risk transmission areas. Rockland County is at a medium level. 

It’s the percentage of positives that is going up, up and away.

For the first time since late December and early January, all 9 counties around New York City are averaging  10% positive rates.

Westchester tested 3,989 persons Sunday, and 469 tested positive according to the Covid Tracker. (The state figures issued in Governor Hochul’s briefing reported a higher figure, but this may contain tests the moving average does not count.)

The Westchester County Covid Tracker.

The latest analysis of Westchester County new cases of covid, town by town, city to city, from dense to  sprawling gentry enclaves from Yonkers to Somers New Rochelle to Cortlandt reveals a spread that is a rising tide.

Every town and city is affected by this spread making every city and town and school district a place where you can get the disease IF YOU DO NOT TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF and others you are in contact.

White Plains has seen cases rise to 464 active cases the last two weeks with 59 new cases a day according to the County Covid-19 map.


       MAY 15  CITY/TOWN    ACTIVE NEW CASES   NEW EACH DAY     % UP # 4/15   

  1. YONKERS  —                     1,049                          151                  300% FROM 356
  2. NEW ROCHELLE                 469                            66                   200% FROM 221
  3. WHITE  PLAINS                  464                            59                    350% FROM 126
  4. NEW,NORTH CASTLES       442                          49                      400% FROM 71
  5. GREENBURGH                     400                          39                     300% FROM 130
  6. YORKTOWN                         376                          46                     400% FROM 89
  • MOUNT PLEASANT           352                           34                       400% FROM 86  
  • MOUNT VERNON              351                           97                       NO FACTOR 4/15
  • MAM’NECKS/ LARCH         304                          44                       300%  FROM 103
  • CORTLANDT                        298                           19                      NO FACTOR 4/15
  • HARRISON                           265                           56                      374% FROM 72
  • RYE CITY/RYE BRK              256                           50                        240% FROM 107
  • TARRYT/SLEEPY HOL         243                           14                         300% FROM 81
  • OSSINING TWN/VILL         237                          49                          200% FROM 108
  • SCARSDALE                         207                          28                         NO FACTOR 4/15
  • BEDFORD                            190                          18                          400% FROM 45
  • SOMERS                               189                         15                          307% FROM 50
  • PEEKSKILL                            171                         22                           NO FACTOR 4/15
  • EASTCHESTER                      155                         17                           174% FROM 50
  • PORT CHESTER                    147                         22                            NO FACTOR 4/15

CITY/TOWN           NEW ACTIVE CASES      DAILY NEW           % INCREASE/# 4/15

What does this show in my opinion it  shows facts that chill:

The average increase from 4 weeks ago is very much the same for all the towns more than 100%,the majority as much as 300 to 400% in increases in 4 weeks.

Some cities are more careful than others, Peekskill and Port Chester for example though dense cities, have kept new cases down while Yonkers, New Rochelle White Plains and Mount Vernon have not.

The disease is infecting amazingly equal whether a community is heavily minority, heavily white,  or in the northern suburb estate communities. The greenbelt of real estate in Central Westchester is particularly hard hit.

 Because you are intelligent and positive and like to think you’re safe from covid and it is light case at best, we do not know that and are not being given facts that show that by the authorities who know the answer. So if it is true the disease makes us suffer less, put out the evidence, please.

I as a naive reporter would love to hear a Director Health say thing like: “We have good news on the serious of covid infections. Of the last 200 infection of covid hospitalized 90% stayed only 2 days… 5% were fully vaccinated. 10 per cent unvaccinated under 18s, etc. etc.

Wouldn’t statement delving into who caught it, what kind of person caught it, how long he or she stayed in vaccination status make you feel more confident? It would me.

Hospitalized have gone from 60 to 80 to 100 to 113 in four weeks, that is a 10% increase a week. They have doubled. And how long are they hospitalized for? Who is getting hospitalized the most? What are their ages, the demographics of the spread?

Please, do not suppress facts that can tell us where we are really at on this.

Please also note how fast these are growing daily now that more people are getting infected.

The numbers of new daily cases are inexorable, and remember each one of the new daily  cases infect 1 and ½ persons now.

The Red Tide is coming in and rising.

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