WPCNR CORONA VIRUS REPORT. By John F. Bailey January 12, 2021 UPDATED 4:35 PM EST:
If anyone was slow to try and get a vaccine appointment through the state website you should act now.
Unless you sign up now, you probably will not be getting the first dose to well into June or July, pending timely shipments of the vaccine. Today Governor Andrew M. Cuomo dropped the age down to 65, meaning even more fast-fill up appointment times.
The vaccine is a becoming an essential “must-have” because as County Executive George Latimer said in his briefing Monday “the covid numbers are climbing very seriously. “
That is an understatement. Take for example the yellow hot spots. They continue “hot” and getting hotter. Just because they are not orange or red does not mean the infection rate in those towns is acceptable. It should not be.
In the most corona active areas here’s the numbers as of Monday:
- Yonkers, 455 new cases, 2,696 active cases total.
- New Rochelle: 117 new cases 893 ‘active.
- Cortlandt, 72 new
- Ossining, 69 new cases
- White Plains, 68 new cases (highest in months)
- Peekskill, 64
- Greenburgh, 56
More to fear are the daily numbers on a day by day basis.
Let’s go back 7 days:
From Monday January 4 to January 10 (Sunday) in Westchester persons getting covid were: 619, 776, 1,019,913, 853, 789 and sunday the 10th 803.
That adds to 5,772 new infections in 7 days an average 824 a day.
Mr. Latimer yesterday said there were 504 persons hospitalized in westchester hospitals this week with covid; 455 last week and 392 the week before.
On Oct. 31 there were only 51.
Now let us see what the daily infection rate does to hospitalizations to come in three weeks.
The hospitalization rate for westchester is 5%.
At 5% rate of hospitalization, the number of 5,772 hospitalizations last week, if 5% of the 5,772 were to be hospitalized within the next two weeks that would put 288 persons into hospitals .
If another 5,772 are infected this week 288 more could be hospitalized in three weeks.
If 5, 772 were infected the week of January 18 to 25 we could have 288 more hospitalizations by February generating a total of 865 new hospitalizations by February 1.
That assumes a stable 7.1% infection rate. If the 7.1% ininfection rate continues to go up you can take 1,000 plus the present 594 of the 2,500 bed capacity and really start stretching hospital caregivers.,4 to 5 weeks from now.
The takeaway: Westchester must be more responsible.