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It’s heeeere. The official start of the respiratory season kicked off last week.
Here is your first State of Affairs for this fall/winter.
Every Friday, the CDC updates their “influenza-like illness” (ILI) data. This is a database where providers tally patients who presented with ILI—a fever, a cough, and/or sore throat—at their office. So these numbers include everything (flu, RSV, COVID-19, etc.) and are a general indication of the climate of respiratory health in the United States.
ILI is starting to creep up but is still below the “epidemic” level threshold. Last year we were hit early and hard. It will be incredibly interesting to see how this unfolds.

Low levels result in a pretty “green” picture of low activity across the United States. We will get to purple here in the next few weeks/months.

Here is a deeper dive into the “big three” viruses.
After our summer wave, every Covid-19 metric is declining—wastewater, ED visits, and hospitalizations. This isn’t a surprise; we’ve consistently seen a lull in Covid-19 this time of year. We are exactly overlapping last year’s trends in wastewater.

Compared to the other big two (RSV and flu), Covid-19 hospitalizations continue to take the lead per capita.

However, there has been significant decoupling of hospitalization and case numbers due to population-level immunity. Although we continue to see waves of infection, COVID-19-associated hospitalizations remained consistently lower than in previous years. Progress.

Who is being hospitalized today? According to a new CDC report:
We are paying close attention to how Omicron continues to change. Below is a beautiful Sankey diagram showing the Omicron family tree. From left to right, it shows the 14 generations of Omicron over time, with the thickness of the line proportional to the number of sequences.
Two specific subvariants will likely drive our expected winter surge:

Influenza levels are still very low. Last week, 1,040 patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza were admitted to a hospital. This is compared to a typical peak of ~28,000.

Interestingly, one specific strain of flu—called Yamagata influenza B—has gone extinct due to Covid-19 measures. This is incredible news because of two things:
RSV is picking up. National trends are being driven by one region—the South. This typically signals the beginning of RSV season, in which the virus will subsequently spread to the Northeast and West over the next two months.

After hitting a summer low, excess mortality (red line below) is once again above pre-pandemic normals (double black line).

How we fare in the upcoming season is strongly driven by vaccination uptake. The big question this year is whether Covid-19 coverage will match that of flu.
This is where we are right now:

Things are quiet right now, especially with Covid-19 on the decline. This will change in the weeks to come. Be sure to get your vaccinations before Halloween—a safe goal to hit before things heat up. And once that ILI line hits epidemic levels, I strongly recommend putting that mask back on to avoid all types of viruses.
Love, YLE
*this originally said 1 in 4, which was a mistake. 1 in 4 ARE up to date on their vaccine.
“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH Ph.D.—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom. During the day, she is a senior scientific consultant to several organizations. At night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health world so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below:
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SPREAD COUNTYWIDE IS BEHIND LAST OCTOBER 887 to 1463
WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Data from NY State Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey.October 11, 2023:
Editor’s Note: The 3-day lag of the NY Department of Health in reporting covid cases continues disrupt daily ebbs and flows of the covid cases in but nevertheless the lag is all WPCNR can use to monitor how effective the people of Westchester are in lowering the disease effect on the county.
Westchester held Covid down for the second straight week, through October 1-7, reporting 887 new persons coming down with covid, down from 1,081 the previous week.
Sunday through Saturday last week, the number of new covid cases were, 109 Sunday, 220, Monday, 175 Tuesday,126 Wednesday, tapering off at the close of the week to 124 Thursday, 96 Friday and 37 Saturday. Westchester averaged 125 cases a day positive covid PCR test positives were 610 compared to 277 Antigen Test positives, lab-tested antigen positives accounting for 45% of the positives.
This shows in my opinion that persons coming down with symptoms are going to confirm positive tests, indicating that the disease is still active and dangerous. Completion of vaccinations and acquisition of booster shots perhaps will prevent more covid in the future.
At White Plains Hospital last week, admissions from last week from October 2 to 6 were 77 admitted to White Plains hoapital beds and 69 were found after admission to have covid or 89%. That is the highest percentage since last January. The hospital has been averaging 50 to 60% of new admissions to beds also testing positive for covid.
In comparison to October 22 hospitalizations for the same week Oct 3 to 7, there were 116 admissions to beds, with 86 found testing positive with covid. This is a lower rate of covid cases entering the White Plains Hospital beds this month but still approaching the hospitalizations for covid of October a year ago which had more admissions but a lower covid percentage (74%). We do not know how serious the covid cases were or are, mild,symptomatic, or deserving treatment.
But 89% is very high for White Plains Hospital last week. It means either people are not testing before they go in for a procedure which you are supposed to do. Since the positives are found by the hospital, this can only mean they wanted the procedure they were going in for and did not want to monitor their covid condition. I take this to mean the “back to normal mindset” of not taking covid precautions is infecting more of the population.
Compared to last October, Westchester population has in the first were as of October 2023, 887 new cases. The first week of October 2022, Westchester had 1,483, 40% lower cases. Our ability to lower covid is better.
Last week, Westchester averaged 13.5 new cases per 100,000 people. 13.5 times 10,04, (1,004,000 county population) is 135 new infections a day times 7 is 945 a week, x 4 weeks is 3,780 infections for October at our present rate of cases per day.
In October 2022, there were 4,563 infections. Westchester is infecting 17% LESS. This is good, if the schools do not spread the covid virus, and we have way of knowing what the schools new cases are across the county, because the Stated Edcucation Department no longer requires them to report covid cases. I think that decision does not make sense.
Last year 2021-2022, there were 138,183 students in Westchester Public Schools. If 2% of them test positive for covid and the schools do not catch you may have 2,763 students spreading covid in the schools. If 5% test positive you may experience a 7,000 student population spreading a faster spreading series of variants faster — especially if the school age population is not fully vaccinated (another thing not required by the State Education Department).
The danger of not reporting covid positives, the unfathomable decision not to test students daily, require social distancing adds to the possibility of the school lack of covid awareness having even higher spreads.
I felt the protocols of last year played a large part in getting covid numbers down by May of this year, but since then the numbers have gone for 10 of 12 weeks since July.
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The world is, once again, seeing the darkest parts of humanity unfold in and around Isreal. Posting about a vaccine felt insensitive without addressing the pain, suffering, and tragedy millions face today. There are massive public health implications of war (malnutrition, clean water, PTSD, bioterrorism risks), and maybe YLE can get there when the time is right. In the meantime, I am grieving with you. Hoping for peace, thinking about those in harm’s way, hoping leaders have wisdom, and hugging my kids extra tight.
Last week, the Novavax Covid-19 vaccine with an updated formula was approved by the FDA. Here are a few quick thoughts.
Also, you’ll find the final version of the vaccine sheet below. I’m stoked that many people, including the CDC, are using it.
Novavax is a small company based in Maryland and has never brought a vaccine to market. This company has a fascinating rollercoaster history; I highly recommend googling over coffee.
Their Covid-19 vaccine contains a coronavirus protein that prompts the immune system. (This differs from Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccines, which contain instructions for recognizing the coronavirus.) Scientists combined this protein with an immune-boosting compound derived from the soapbark tree.
This type of vaccine has a much longer track record than the newer approaches. But the innovative aspect is that Novavax found a way to make this vaccine in moth cells (rather than mammal cells). The moth cells become little factories that pump out coronavirus proteins. This allows Novavax to manufacture the vaccine much more quickly than others, which is one reason they can get this to market in 6 months (as opposed to longer).
Anyone 12 years and older. This includes people who previously had a Pfizer or Moderna Covid-19 vaccine.
13,000 stores… eventually. It will take time for distribution, just like the mRNA vaccines. The closest one to me is 75 miles. This will change with time.
Keep an eye out on vaccines.gov. Here is another Novavax finder. (Note: it still has information from the 2022 vaccine rather than the 2023 updated vaccine. I hope this will be updated ASAP.)
Yes. Most recently, an Italian study of more than 20,000 people showed protection against symptomatic disease was 50% in fully vaccinated people. It did not wane before 4 months.
There is some evidence that mixing is immunologically better and some evidence that staying with mRNA is better. It’s a bit hard to know which one is “right” given how little evidence we have at this point. (See a breakdown of the similarities and differences here.)
That said, there are two reasons people may want to go with Novavax:
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Side effects from varying combinations of Covid-19 vaccines. Figure from the Lancet, with YLE annotations. Original source here.
Below is the final version, as we don’t expect updates for fall 2023 options from here on out. Below is an English and Spanish PDF for paid subscribers. Download and share!
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Love, YLE
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STATEMENT FROM WESTCHESTER COUNTY EXECUTIVE GEORGE LATIMER: A RENEWED CALL FOR A FEDERAL FIELD IMMIGRATION COURT
Attached to this release is a letter County Executive George Latimer has sent to federal representatives echoing his call for a field immigration court.
(White Plains, NY) – “On almost every corner of Westchester County the issue of immigration remains a topic. It is a complex and pressing challenge for our County, State and Nation. As I have long maintained, it is crucial that we address this challenge with compassion and respect for the rights and dignity of individuals seeking refuge in our Country. Therefore, I am renewing my call for the establishment of a Federal Field Immigration Court to handle asylum-seekers right here in Westchester County.
The ongoing management of migrants within Westchester County has been effective, and it is with this success in mind that we propose the establishment of this local court. The purpose of the Field Court would be to adjudicate applications for asylum by immigrants who have come to Westchester County seeking protection. By providing a local venue for processing these applications, we can ensure that individuals receive due process and fair consideration of their claims in a timely manner right in the County where they are temporarily located.
Our primary goal, one we all share, is to alleviate the strain on existing immigration courts and help reduce the substantial backlog of asylum cases. To staff the Field Court effectively, if additional staff is needed, I recommend the recruitment of retired judges and individuals with legal experience. This practice mirrors our approach during the COVID-19 pandemic when we enlisted retired doctors and nurses, which had a significant impact. In this case, these dedicated professionals can help reduce the backlog of applications, ensuring that cases are processed in a timely manner while upholding the integrity of the asylum process.
Here in Westchester County we have effectively managed migrant placements with dignity, respect and safety in the forefront. I have long maintained that our approach to immigration should reflect our nation’s core values of compassion, fairness and respect for human rights. That is why, I believe we need to establish a Federal Field Immigration Court to handle asylum-seekers right here in Westchester County. I renew my call and invite other elected officials to join in this advocacy.”
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Welcome to the Northeast edition of Outbreak Outlook, formerly called This Week in Outbreaks! This content is only available to paid subscribers. As I am launching the regional editions, your feedback and support is invaluable. Thanks for reading! -Caitlin
Influenza-like illness (ILI) has increased for several weeks now in the Northeast. It currently ranks as the second-highest region for ILI in the country, with around 2.3% of visits to the doctor for ILI symptoms. This is an increase over last week’s 1.8%, but still far below the national threshold that marks the beginning of flu season, which is 2.5%. Current levels are similar to what the Northeast region saw at this time last year.
While most states in the region fall in the “minimal” or “low” ILI activity categories, New York City was again categorized as “high.” More detailed information on influenza-like illness will become available later this month, when states begin to turn on their ILI surveillance systems and pay closer attention to what is going around.
Once again, it’s the littlest ones who are most heavily affected. For kids aged 0-4, 7.1% of their visits to the doctor were for fever and cough or sore throat, up from 6.8% the week prior. For the 5-24 age group, the rate is lower at 3.3%, while rates for older age groups are below 2%.
Hmm. Covid-19 trends in the Northeast are puzzling. Data from Biobot shows an unexpected rise in wastewater concentration. This surprised me, because other regions in the country are showing improvement. I had anticipated the Northeast to follow a similar trend. I’ll keep an eye on it and update you on the next developments.
In Northern New England, the number of new hospitalizations rose slightly. Interestingly, while hospitalizations increased, the test positivity rate saw a dip from 12.5% to 9.7%. I hope that foreshadows improvements in Covid-19 activity, but again, I’m uncertain.
In New York and New Jersey, the number of new hospitalizations is remaining mostly stable. The test positivity has fallen slightly. It climbed high to 16.2% on September 16, but by September 23, it had calmed down to 13.2%.
Hospitalizations in Pennsylvania are still increasing.
Also, I got my free, at-home Covid-19 tests in the mail last week! One reader pointed out that the tests were not due to arrive until October 2 — and indeed they did, right on time. Order yours today! covid.gov/tests.
RSV activity but slowly increasing in New England states. PCR test positivity is now 2%, up from a recent low of less than 1%. Still, during the height of RSV season, test positivity can reach 20%, so overall activity is low.
Not much sign of increase in New York, New Jersey or Pennsylvania.
All the other respiratory virus that I keep an eye on — seasonal coronavirus, human metapneumovirus, parainfluenza virus, and adenovirus —look good.
Norovirus activity is low.
The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:
New this week:
Previously reported:
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Gov. Kathy Hochul announces 18,000 jobs available to asylum-seekers and migrants as part of statewide initiative to move individuals out of shelters. SUSAN WATTS/OFFICE OF GOVERNOR KATHY HOCHUL
As both New York City and state officials continue to try and discourage more migrants from coming to New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul said on Monday that employers in the state are ready to hire asylum-seekers once they receive work permits.
During a press conference in Manhattan, Hochul announced that nearly 400 employers from across the state had signed up to participate in a state Department of Labor program meant to connect migrants authorized to work with jobs. According to her, that translated to roughly 18,000 jobs.
“That can help solve our problems, at least a start towards reducing the number of people who need shelter in our city,” Hochul said. Venezuelans who arrived in the country by July 31 will be eligible to apply for Temporary Protected Status beginning on Tuesday, meaning that some would be eligible to receive work authorization and can begin filling those jobs.
According to data released by Hochul’s office, over half of the jobs would be in New York City, with the rest scattered across the rest of the state. After the city, the Hudson Valley, Western New York and Long Island would have the most jobs among employers who have signed up. The 379 employers also represented a range of industries, with the most – 24% – from the hospitality and food service industries.
“When I think about all the folks that have come to New York City seeking asylum … they want to work hard, they want opportunity,” said Andrew Rigie, executive director of the New York City Hospitality Alliance. “And we know our city’s restaurant industry represents that opportunity.” Rigie was one of three representatives of the food and hospitality industries to speak at the Monday press conference.
Health care and social assistance were 79 of the employers, or 21% of the program’s participants. That made it the second-largest industry to sign up to connect with migrants, but no representatives from the field spoke at the press conference hosted by the governor.
Asked for a list of the largest participating employers, particularly in health care, a spokesperson for the state Department of Labor said they did not have a full list, but added that Premier Home Health Care Services is one of the larger health care employers participating in the program.
The company has offices in Manhattan, Long Island, Westchester County and Staten Island. And a spokesperson for the Greater New York Hospital Association told City & State that it is currently trying to determine if any of its members are participating. A spokesperson for the New York Health Plan Association also did not immediately have information regarding which, if any, of its members signed up.
Other industries made up smaller percentages of participating employers. The third-largest number of employers came from manufacturing, from which 38 companies signed up, or 10% of all employers so far. After that was 8% in administrative support, 7% categorized as “other,” and 5% each for construction and retail. No representatives from any of these other fields spoke at the Monday press conference.
The announcement came on the heels of comments that Hochul made over the weekend on CBS’ “Face the Nation” calling on the federal government to impose “a limit on who can come across the border.” She said that the border is “too open right now” and that many people asking for asylum are “ending up in the streets of New York.” A top adviser for New York City Mayor Eric Adams also called on federal officials to “close the border” on Sunday.
Asked by reporters whether the statement went too far as Republicans seized on it, Hochul demurred. “I’ve been in the business long enough to know that no matter what I say … they will interpret it and misinterpret it and lie about it in any way that suits their political interest,” Hochul said.
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COVID CASES IN COUNTY DOWN 42% AFTER 14 INCREASING WEEKS

BEYOND PLASTICS WEBINAR EXPOSED THE PLASTIC PLAGUE OF ENDOCRINE-INTERRUPTERS CHEMICALS. DR. PETER MEYERS OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH NETWORK EXPLAINS IN KEY VIDEO

STATE SENATOR PETER HARCKHAM SPONSORS NY PLASTIC PACKAGING LAW THAT WOULD MAKE PLASTIC PACKAGING HAVE TO RECYCLABLE IN 12 YEARS

AFTER CITIZENS COMPLAIN, COUNCIL REVISES BAN ON COMBUSTION-FUELED LEAF BLOWERS ALLOWING THE USE OF THE PREVIOUS BANNED IN WHITE PLAINS BLOWERS IN FALL.

CAITLIN RIVERS DEBUTS ON WPCNR “THIS WEEK IN OUTBREAKS–THE NORTHEAST”

FREE ANTIGEN TESTS FROM WASHINGTON ARE GOING OUT ACROSS AMERICA ORDER YOURS FREE
KEEP LOWERING COVID INFECTIONS BY MAKING SURE YOU ARE NOT POSITIVE

JOHN BAILEY AND THE NEWS THAT AFFECTS YOU MR. AND MRS AND MS. WHITE PLAINS
REPORTING EVERY WEEK ON WHITE PLAINS WEEK FOR 22 YEARS
4 hrs ago
I’d like to give a huge shout out to Costco, who now has the Novavax vaccine in stock in many of their pharmacies across the country. When I called their pharmacy yesterday, a live person answered their phone, and was happy to book a Novavax appointment for me even though I’m not a Costco member. I get jabbed this afternoon.
Compare this to the multiple phone calls I’ve made to Rite Aid, CVS and Walgreens where customers get stuck in an “automated customer service maze from hell” and often can’t speak to a real person. The few times I was lucky enough to reach the pharmacist, they either had never heard of Novavax, confused it with Moderna, and had no idea whether their company would be receiving it. And www.vaccines.gov is not up to date – the place to get real-time info, unfortunately, remains Twitter, or X, or whatever it’s now called, where there’s currently a #Novavax frenzy.
I have heard (although this isn’t confirmed) that Rite Aid and CVS will eventually get Novavax, but it could take a week or two. Perhaps it’s Costco’s superior internal distribution system that allows it to distribute fresh salmon to stores across the nation that enables it to be first at distributing Novavax.
After this exceedingly pleasant experience, I am planning to reinstate my Costco membership (even though I still have a huge box of unused, tissue-thin toilet paper in the garage from the early days of lockdown).
Also, Novavax plans to release the results of their Hummingbird (kids) study on October 17.