Bowman vs. Latimer — Analysis and forecast for the June 25 Democratic Party Primary for U.S. Representative in Congress – 16th District

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WPCNR CAMPAIGN 2024. News & Comment By Professor Stephen Rolandi. June 20, 2024:

 By this time next week, we should know the outcome of the Democratic Party’s marquee primary that has received national interest and has been estimated to be one of the most expensive primaries to date (over $ 20 million).

 

The primary pits the incumbent Congressman, Jamal Bowman against Westchester County’s popular and term limited County Executive, Georg Latimer. One could say it is almost a “referendum” between the centrist Democrats (Latimer) and the progressive wing of the Democratic Party (Bowman).

As a result of re-apportionment, New York’s 16 C.D. looks somewhat different from the prior 16 C.D. The bulk of the district lies in southern Westchester County, with a small portion contained in the Bronx (county and borough) of New York City.

 

The ethnic make-up of the 16 C.D. is approximately 40% white, and 60% persons of color — Spanish speaking persons account for 29% and African-Americans 21%. In the Democratic primary, approximately 40% of voters are of the Jewish faith.

 

The District’s configuration is strongly Democratic, but not as overwhelmingly Democratic as other congressional districts in New York City.

In my view, County Executive Latimer has run a textbook campaign, while Rep. Bowman has had to defend his two term record; and advocate strongly held views on the conflict in Gaza.

Mr. Bowman received only 54% of the vote against several opponents in the 2022 primary.

Mr. Latimer has a strong record as County executive and prior legislative experience in southern Westchester; Rep. Bowman enjoys significant support from younger voters in the 16 C.D.

 

Bottom line: I forecast George Latimer winning the primary 55% to Bowman’s 45%.    

 

(Professor Stephen Rolandi previously served as Deputy Commissioner for the New York State Division of Human Rights. A political scientist, he is an Adjunct Professor of Public Administration at Pace University and John Jay College of Criminal Justice, CUNY).

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