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 SETS STAGE FOR POSSIBLE ACCELERATION IN FALL CASES AT THE 300 CASE A DAY RATE OF MAY.

NEW COVID INFECTIONS THRIVE IN “ANYTHING GOES” ATMOSPHERE : NO MASKING, NO SOCIAL DISTANCING, NO RESTAURANT CAPACITY LIMITATIONS, NO PUBLIC SPACE LIMITATIONS. BOTHERSOME REINFECTION RATE

WPCNR COVID BULLETIN. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey.

The 9,642 persons testing positive for Covid in June contributed to spreading the disease to 10,298 persons in the month of July.

It is a 4% statistically insignificant rise from June in covid infections, but a continuation of strong infection numbers for three straight months that has sustained covid spread.

The infections in June and July combined are  the highest since 300 a day new infections started up in May of this year when 13,055 cases of covid were recorded.

February of this year the county had 4,389 infections. February was the month after 5 weeks of  vaccinations in the county had brought the record January infections of 51,826 to an accelerated slowdown–from the highest month of covid  infections ever in January.

 In March Westchester followed with 4,163 infections. April reported 7,054. May showed a strong upswing in covid infections to approximately 13,055 but that figure is an estimate since no testing information was put out over Memorial Day weekend and subsequent adjustments on those 3 days were not clearly defined by the Covid Tracker.

So in May June and July the county has been averaging  10,911 new covid infections.

It is significant to note  the statewide precautions and protocols were relaxed substantially in the spring by the state legislature taking away the former Governor Cuomo’s powers over emergency measures and agreeing that restaurants, gatherings, concerts prohibitions and capacities could be eliminated which the former governor had used to put in masking, capacity limitations in restaurants and public  events.

Currently  the public is very relaxed about covid and each new person coming down with covid in total is spreading the disease to 1.4 persons which is a very good spread rate that shows that persons are not ignoring the impacts of covid and perhaps are quarantining themselves after becoming sick, but that is wishful thinking. I hope that is true.

Over the last 5 months from March 1 through July 31, covid infections per week have gone up in 14 of  the last 23 weeks in Westchester County.

There IS strong consistent rise in the new positive covid cases beginning Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and Friday of each week in PCR (Lab confirmed positive tests), which would indicate persons are getting infected with symptoms faster over the weekend and test themselves with an antigen (at home test) find a positive, panic and go in for a lab test(or not).

The “or nots” are a problem. Since the county is no longer operating or encouraging PCR tests and depends on a testing “honor system” if you test positive on an antigen test, you have yourself tested via a PCR test, how many antigen positives without serious symptoms aren’t getting that PCR tests, or worse, not self-quarantining?

Here’s what I mean:Orange County Saturday reported 118 positives, (an 8.8%) rate, but because no one know the population of their county offhand, the significance of the 7 day average infection rate has no impact the person reading the wonderfully valuable Covid Tracker.

For example,  On Saturday the Covid Tracker reported the average number of new infections per 100,000 persons of population is 30.9. Orange has a population of 3,166,857 so at 31.7 times 30.9, Orange should have had 980 positives last week, and through 8 days Orange had 984 positives. That is a significant problem for Orange County.

But, but,but…if you look at the daily covid tracker, that does not hit home. I suggest as infections spreading continues to be an obvious problem that the cumulative number of infections per week by shown as the week progresses.

It was not until I did that Orange County calculation that I realized how significant Orange infections have been increasing. Here are the total infections this week for each Mid-Hudson Region County. The figures speak for themselves

Westchester

In Westchester County the county has spread the disease at a 9.7% positive of PCR  rates, far more than the 1.1% test rate needed to diminish the number of cases from spreading. Westchester has average 33  of 100,000 persons/per population  a day tested positive July 24 to 31 positive for covid which with 1,004,457 population means Westchester averages  2,402 a week new covid infections.  2,473 were the Westchester infections last week, counting Sunday.

Orange County over the last week had 984 positives.  (This is way up in the last week, averaging 140 new infections a day. Orange should consider this growing problem.)

Rockland County last week July 24 through Sunday tested 802 positives. Rockland was averaging 22 new positives per 100,000 in population the last 7 days. Rockland  should have 502 positives (22 times 3.26 –326,225 of population) but there were 802 positives through Sunday, that means the average infections are growing daily at the rate of 60%.

Dutchess is in trouble, too. From July 24 through July 31, Dutchess reports via the New York Covid Tracker, 636 new infections. Dutchess for the last 7 days had been suffering  17.4 new infections per 100,000 population per day, and should have had (had the population been containing the disease by safe practices) 362 infections. (17 x 7 x 2.98 –297,488, the Dutchess County population. But  sadly no – the  number is 802. Another similar sharp increase in average infections.

Ulster County, the tracker reports today is in at 263 new cases of covid. That is 32 new infections a day. Ulster County averaged 19 new infections a day for the last 7 days on each 100,000 of population. Ulster has  181,851 population, so we do 100,000 into 181,851 and get 1.81 times 19 and we get  241 new infections at the average infection rate of 19 infections a day. Ulster is not spreading as much as the other 5 counties.

Putnam and Sullivan Counties have the smallest populations in the Mid-Hudson Region

Putnam reports in on the New York Covid Tracker at 220 new infections. They average the last 7 days  29 infections per 100,000 population or 203 for a week. Divide Putnam’s population (98,532) by 100,000 and you get .98 times 203 and you get 198 should be Putnam’s infections, but the county is in at 220, a slight .11% increase in the number of cases in Putnam

Sullivan reported 169 new cases July 24 to 31. Sullivan reported 34 new cases an average per day the last 7 days on 100,000 of population, or 238 a week. Divide Sullivan County population (78,624) by 100,000 and you get .78.  Multiply.78 x 238 and you get 186.

Sullivan is the only county of 7 in the Mid-Hudson Region to suppress the spread of covid last week.

This is admirable on the surface the number of PCR tests  quantities indicate a lot of people in Sullivan are not testing, compared to the positive rates across  all 7 counties The 7-county average is 9.95% positive on very small test numbers.

The positive rate of 9.95% of all 7 counties From Westchester to Sullivan holding  across larger testing quantities  is a nightmare come true. 

Weschester County averaged 5,583 PCR (LAB AUTHENTICATED TESTS) last week and averaged 10% positives. If the county administered 12,000 PCR TESTS  and  the 10.7%  positive rate held true they might might find 1284 positives a day, that is, coincidently, 9,000 a week exactly what we are finding now for three straight months of covid lingering, mingling, and infecting.

And school starts in 5 weeks.

Reinfections are running 6% of those cured from covid for 90s in New York State

A lot to worry about.