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FIGURES UNDERESTIMATE WESTCHESTER COVID INFECTIONS NUMBERS BY 38,466, NEW INFECTIONS BY 500 A WEEK— UNDERESTIMATES PEOPLE AT RISK FOR COVID NEW INFECTIONS BY THOUSANDS. 4TH UP-INFECTION WEEK IN 5 WEEKS OF HIGHER POSITIVES FOR WESTCHESTER
WPCNR CORONAVIRUS TRAIL. By John F. Bailey. July 10, 2022:
If you knew how many persons lived in Westchester a year ago by the 2020 census, wouldn’t you assume the government and the state would adjust their calculations about covid based on the current populations of Westchester and every other county in the country?
They are not.
The first weekly report issued last week by the Center for Disease Control is using 2010 Census Data.
The CDC report was reported a month ago by the Governor’s office of New York as updating the CDC format and put out the first edition last week.
Westchester’s population is reported as 965,991. According to the 2020 census figure released one year ago it is 1,004,457. That is a 38,466 more persons in Westchester County, than the CDC and the Covid Tracker of NY are using.
The implication of this is that the new infections, across the country are being under-reported by millions. In Westchester County they are under reported in the number CDC of new infections a week, 158 per 100,000 population per week. Let’s take a look.
In the last six days, July 3 through Friday, July 6 with Saturday’s figures from the New York State Covid Tracker to come out today, Sunday, means Westchester if we have the same number of infections we had last Saturday (July 2- 247)) will have 2,315 new covid infections, compared to 2077 last week June 25 to July 2. That will make the third consecutive week of covid increases and 4th 300 a day week in the last 5.
According to the Center for Disease Control first new weekly report of July Westchester County is infecting at the rate of 158 persons a week per 100,000 population every 7 days. If you multiply that by 10.04 (Westchester’s new population as of last spring, 2021 was 1,004,457), you get 10.04 x 158 that estimates Westchester should have 1,586 new infections this week.
We don’t.
The last six days show we already have 2,068.
We have been averaging over 2,000 a week, 300 a day. Four of the last 5 weeks.
This discrepancy indicates a lag in getting figures from the states to the CDC, or at least New York State.
When the New York State Covid Tracker debuted they used the former figures from 2010, because they were the only census available. But now we have had the new numbers for every county in New York (and nationwide), for 2 years.
When I figured vaccinations for New York State when they started last January, I used the new population figure, 1,004,457, to judge the gap between fully vaccinated persons with one dose, and persons not vaccinated.
The CDC, using the 965,991 figure, inadvertently probably, gives a false sense of safety. Take a look at their chart:
Why wouldn’t the CDC and the New York Covid Tracker update the population bases by county?
Why wouldn’t the CDC and the New York Covid Tracker update them to provide more accurate presentation vaccination figures based on the true population of the moment?