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WPCNR CORONA VIRUS MONITOR. From the New York State Covid-19 Workbook. Observations by John F. Bailey. Thanksgiving Day, November 25, 2021:

On 11 of the last 14 days, the Mid-Hudson Region and Long Island counties have lead New York City in new cases of covid, despite having 60% less population.

The first two days of Thanksgiving week, Westchester, Orange, Dutchess, Ulster, Rockland, Putnam, and Sullivan Counties and Long Island Nassau and Suffolk Counties with a combined 9-County population of 5,274,770 people (2020 census) reported more infections than New York City’s 5 boroughs of 8,804,190 persons, dramatically demonstrating how suburbia is spreading and sustaining the Fourth Wave of coronavirus.

Monday, November 22, the 9 counties with greatly reduced tests, reported 1,198 new persons getting covid. All five boroughs of New York City reported 1,206 – just 8 more cases. With 3.5 million less people than New York City, the 9 suburban counties are spreading and continue to spread covid at the same rate.

Tuesday the 9 counties exceeded more cases than New York City. New York reported 1,469 new covid-infected positive tests, the suburban 9 counties, 1,655, 186 more cases for the suburbs. This is not good news at all.

On the numbers, Westchester County reported 158 infection Tuesday, November 23, , 2.2% of 7,245 tested, which is on target  for 1 new infected person spreading the disease to 2 other persons, based on the 82 infections on November 9.

County Executive George Latimer in his Covid Report Tuesday put hospitalizations at 40, an increase from 30 last week. He said the 2,700 hospital beds should be able to handle that rate of hospitalization. The worry obviously is how many of the 1,000 infections a week in Westchester alone will result in how many new hospitalizations, and how fast.

In two weeks the 158 persons testing positive  just Tuesday could conceivably result at (2 persons newly infected by 1 person), bring 300 new infections. Westchester averages 150 new positives a day over the last week, that is 1,050 new infections a week. The actual total from November 14 to 20 was 1,108.

In two weeks it is worrying that we might see 2,216 new infections based on the 1 person infecting 2 two-week spread rate.

Though infections are not as high as a year ago, that is the past. What is significant is our behavior now.

Mr. Latimer said Tuesday the vaccinations are stemming the persons getting infected but the next month will be crucial in limiting the spread of the disease and he urged care in socializations.

In a statement released Thanksgiving Day, County Executive Latimer wrote:

“Thanksgiving is a day where all of us, no matter our race or religion, gather – once again in person – to give thanks. These past nearly two years have been challenging for all of us, but in times of difficulty it is of paramount importance to take stock of what we do have to be thankful for. A bright future is ahead of us, and without the blessings we have already received that future could not be realized. I extend my warmest wishes for a Happy Thanksgiving to all Westchester County residents.”

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