The Election Situation Thursday Night

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WPCNR NEWS AND COMMENT. Special to WPCNR by Stephen Rolandi, Public Policy Analyst, November 5, 2020:

Editor’s Note: On Monday Stephen Rolandi analyzed the Presidential Election for WPCNR predicting a Joseph Biden victory. Here is Mr. Rolandi’s view of the results as of Thursday evening, which are solely his own opinion and do not reflect the views of his employers, Pace University and City University of New York.

Here’s how I see the remaining states:

Biden – 253

He likely wins PA   + 20 – Biden down now by only 60,000 since Tuesday night when Trump had a lead of 600,000. There are more than enough votes in Philadelphia & Allegheny (Pitts.) counties for Biden to win here. 

May win GA. + 16 – he’s down by only 3400 now (as of 8 PM). (Now 1,902 as of 10 P.M.)

Biden likely wins Nevada + 6 — he’s leading here with 13,000, with more ballots to count.

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Trump – 217

Probably wins NC + 15

Has a chance in AZ  (+ 11) with 200,000 ballots left to count

So, by my math, Biden would have 295; Trump would have 243.

Trump needs to win PA & Georgia  to win re-election – if he loses the vote count in these states, he has to go to court, and so far, I’m not impressed with his “arguments” — he needs someone with the stature of a James Baker to make the case publicly for him, and it’s not happening, as yet. I think the best Trump probably has is Rudy Giuliani and Jay Sekolow. He needs a top-notch Law School Professor, like Alan Dershowitz. Trump is his own worst enemy.

State election laws govern here, unless Trump can somehow prove that his constitutional rights as a candidate have been violated. See Bush v. Gore (2000).

BOTTOM LINE:

Biden will likely be declared the winner by the networks (Friday or over the week-end). Trump’s only option then would be to go to court to overturn ballot results in PA. & Georgia, and perhaps Nevada or Arizona.

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