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WPCNR QUILL & EYESHADE. By John F. Bailey. August 5, 2008: The New York State Department of Taxation & Finance reports to WPCNR Wednesday that Westchester County is $3-1/2 Million off its pace for a $473.5 Million sales tax goal midway through the year. The Westchester County Clerk reports County Mortgage Taxes are down 33%, reflecting the 27% dip in housing sales in Westchester County the first six months of the year.

White Plains is Number Two in Sales Tax the first six months of 2008, despite Yonkers having a higher tax rate plus an additional 1%. The Final Quarter of April, May, June figure for White Plains of $11,485,331 was only $355,954 below the Oct-Nov-Dec. holiday period of 2007. Source, New York State Department of Taxation and Finance.
The county has received $235.4 Million in the first six months of 2008 from the state – currently a little less than 1% off expected sales tax collections of $473.5 Million, indicating a possible $3 Million shortfall in the county budgeted sales tax at this time. Total shortfall in sales tax and mortgage tax on the county level at this time, according to the State Department of Budget and Finance: $9 Million.
The Mortgage Tax Dwindles 33%
In light of State Budget Director Laura Anglin’s gloomy prognostications last week, the county may not collect what they expect in sales taxes, and with housing sales off 26.7% % in the first two quarters of this year, mortgage taxes may not make the $28 Million expected in the County budget.
According to housing statistics released by the Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service two weeks ago, housing sales in Westchester County declined 26.7% in the first half of 2008 to 999 sales from 1,363 in the first half of 2007. There are 4,616 homes on the market as of two weeks ago as opposed to 4,173 the same time last year. Sales of Condominiums were off 15%; Coops, 23% down, and 2 to 4 family homes down the most, 31% off from a year ago.
County Clerk Troubled
County Clerk Timothy Idoni told WPCNR today the county mortgage tax collection the first six months of this year is down 33%. He said he projects the county to collect $23 Million for the year, and is hopeful for a pickup in sales. The county projected in their 2008 budget to collect $28.7 Million in Mortgage Taxes, indicating the county between the sales tax collection pace and the mortgage tax is running about $12 Million behind on the revenue side on a county budget of $1.778 Billion.
White Plains Robust Despite lower sales tax rate.
White Plains received $22, 703,297 in sales tax receipts the first six months from the state through July 21 – twice as much sales tax booty as Mt. Vernon and New Rochelle, and $9 Million less than Yonkers.
Yonkers received $31.7 Million in sales tax receipts, (thanks to Yonkers enjoying an extra 1% city sales tax – according to the Department of Taxation and Finance– that is not subject to preemption by the county.)

New Rochelle received $13 Million in sales tax receipts back from the state the first six months of 2008 and Mount Vernon $9.1 Million. If you remove the Yonkers extra 1%, White Plains beats Yonkers head to head $22.7 Million to $19M, even with Yonkers collecting ¼ per cent more sales tax at its 8.375% to White Plains 8.125%. White Plains had requested to be put on a par with Yonkers sales tax, but this was rejected by city Democrats, who opted only for a ¼% increase in the city sales tax. Now in light of the present budget crisis any increase in White Plains sales tax may not be in the cards.
Soft Sales Tax Statewide.
Statewide, the New York State Department of Taxatation and Finance reports New York state counties received $3.285 Billion back from New York State the first six months of 2008, as opposed to $3.165 Billion the first six months of 2007, an increase in county sales taxes statewide of 4% which is the current 4.2% inflation rate statewide, according to last week’s report by the State Budget Director.
The Department of Taxation and Finance reports that in the first quarter of the state fiscal year the state collected $5.9 Billion in sales tax. The state kept $2.7 Billion and returned the balance to counties and municipalities.
The $2.7 Billion projects out to a state take for 2008-2009 of $11 Billion in sales tax meaning that the projection for 08-09 after one quarter – according to the Department of the Budget is behind depending of course on how successful the holiday season turns out to be. The Department of Budget projects a sales tax collection for all of 08-09 of $14.6 Billion.
If the state sales tax numbers continue on the present soft pace without the expected kick from the holiday season, the state would collect $11 Billion, leaving a $3.6 Billion shortfall in sales tax revenue alone. But that is only if the holiday season does not supply its usual impact.

The Budget Director, Laura Anglin painted a grim picture last Wednesday on revenues, which can be seen in their entirety on the Department of the Budget website: http://www.budget.state.ny.us/pubs/enacted/0809_q1_summary/0809FirstQuarterUpdateFinal.pdf
Since Albany legislators have indicated by public comments that they feel this is too soon to evaluate revenue trends and indicative of an early panic on the part of the Governor and Budget Director, it is instructive to examine what their news conference showed, which no other media has reported in depth. The slides below are provided by the state on the above website.
They indicate why Westchester County might expect that more than sales taxes and mortgage tax revenues will be effected in the last five months of the county fiscal year.
· Falling corporate profits are expected to be off $510 Million this year. New York’s Top Sixteen Banks paid $173 Million in business taxes last year in the First Quarter. This year, they paid $5 Million a decline of 97%

· In Sales/Use Taxes, the Budget Director predicted a $161 Million shortfall based on “weaker tax collections than estimated, an adjustment to motor vehicle fees (presumably lower auto sales)”
· Tax Base Growth expected to be 2.6% in 2008-09 is now expected to be 1.6% after First Quarter Figures are in. The Tax Base growth the last two years enabled the state “to solve its budget problems without making hard choices.”

· Stall in Tax Base Growth has created a Spending Gap the next two fiscal years. Spending is on pace for an 11% growth in 2009-10, while Tax Base is projected to grow just 2%. In 2010-11, spending grows another 8.9% while revenue grows only 4.2%. This is not good.

· The total deficit, the Budget Director anticipates is $26.2 Billion through 2011-2012.

· 13,700 mortgage loans entered the foreclosure process in the first quarter of 2008

· As of a month ago 2.2% of mortgages (45,000 owners) were in foreclosure in New York, and increase of 25,000 homeowners in one year.
· The Budget Director noted Wall Street troubles are going to cost the state major revenue for the following reasons
· 20% of state revenue comes from Wall Street, and the New York Securities Industry has reported 22.8 Billion in losses in the first half of 2008 – read “write-offs.”
· Wall Street is in worse shape than it was in the months following the Trade Center Attack in 2001. In the three quarters following 9/11, the securities industry posted profits. In 2008, however in the first three months of 2008, Wall Street has lost $4 Billion, $16 Billion and $22 Billion.
· Wall Street Bonuses will decline this year for the first time since 2002-2003. The last three years Wall Street Bonuse growth averaged 27.6%. The growth will not be there this year to help the state out. Anglin notes “the projected decline in 2009 Wall Street bonuses nearly doubled since (2008) Enacted Budget forecast.” The budget figured an 11.1% decline, instead bonuses appear to be a 20.5% decline

· Capital Gains as a revenue steroid are expected to decline 24%. In the last five years capital gains grew 37% annually in 2003,04,05,06, and 07.

Westchester County Executive Andrew Spano was on vacation last week. The Westchester Department of Communications was asked for a statement on the effect of the state revenue predictions and whether or not county was going to attempt to rein in spending the last five months of the year. Mr. Spano has not issued any statement on Governor David A. Patterson’s and Budget Director Anglin’s dire report on the state revenues last week and their ultimate effect on county spending, at this time.