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WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. From New York State Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John Bailey. September 17, 2022:
After no covid daily case updates on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday this week, the Covid Tracker resumed with an updated report Friday, giving the results of the new number of covid cases for Wednesday September 14.
After giving results for the first day of the week, Sunday, September 11 on the Tracker of 168 positives, no results were posted on the Tracker until Friday at about 5:30 P.M.
The Governor’s press office has not responded when asked why the usually reliable daily count was not available for 3 days. The Tracker is the only specific realiable tool for seeing day-by-day trends in the covid containment effort, and to see whether more has to be done or restrictions can be relaxed.
On the Westchester County daily graph of cases which is linked to the state figures, however, we have results for Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday. There is no explanation on covid tracker for the missed days of Monday and Tuesday. Covid Tracker has missed reports on days in the past but not 3 days in a row to this reporter’s records.
The Westchester graph reports 240 new cases Monday, 231 new covid positives Tuesday and 214 Wednesday that in addition to the Sunday figure of 168 new cases, total 853 cases the first 4 days.
If that 213 new cases a day rate continues for Thursday Friday and Saturday, we can see the week’s cases after the first week of Westchester schools rise to 1,500 new persons afflicted with covid ending last week’s sixth consecutive week of diminishing infections (1,026), ending the six week covid declining trend that lowered infections 50% since August 1.
At this rate of per day positives the first 4 days, this would show a 1,500 total of new cases, or 45% after 12 days of schools in session across the county, the Labor Day weekend, and a “new Normal.”.
In the first week of schools last year 2021 in Westchester County, September 5 to 11, there were 1,152 new cases, and in the second week, September 12 to 18, 1,164. This yielded a rate of 164 infections a day the first week of school last year in the county and in the second week, 166 a day.
The first 3 weeks of September this year 2022 in Westchester yielded 178 new covid cases a day Aug 28 to September 3 (a week of 1,246 infections); 146 new cases a day September 4 to 10, 2022 on last week 1,026 infections. This week is projecting a 213 new cases a day the first 4 days showing a growing increase in new cases a day.
As WPCNR has observed the relaxing of covid protection policies in the majority of Westchester Schools may already be showing accelerated growth of infections per day. But it should be noted that last year there was a mixture of remote learning and social distancing was in place.
When the State School report of covid positives in schools resumes, which I sincerely hope it does, that will provide a true look of whether the schools are resisting covid infection increases or not based on the student vaccinations and behaviors.
ORANGE RUNNING A 9.5% INFECTION RATE UP OVER A 100 INFECTIONS A DAY ON VERY LOW TESTS, ULSTER RUNNING 53 INFECTIONS, 12.3% INFECTION RATE. DUTCHESS UP TO 53 A DAY AND A 12.3% INFECTION RATE.
THE MID HUD REGION RUNNING AN 8.4% INFECTION RATE AS OF WEDNESDAY. NASSAU AND SUFFOLK CONTINUE TO INFECT AT 8% INFECTION RATE, 600 NEW COVID POSITIVE PERSONS A DAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY THE 9 COUNTIES OF WESTCHESTER, ORANGE, DUTCHESS, ROCKLAND, ULSTER, SULLIVAN AND PUTNAM, NASSAU AND SUFFOLK HAVE 1,239 postive new covid cases WEDNESDAY WHICH IS 70% OF THE NUMBER OF POSITIVES IN NEW YORK CITY (1,747) WEDNESDAY.