WESTCHESTER REACHES 320 NEW INFECTIONS OF COVID A DAY SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 1,920 NEW CASES WITH SATURDAY NUMBERS TO COME TOMORROW.
WPCNR COVID DAILY. From New York State Covid Tracker. Analysis & Observation by John F. Bailey. April 23, 2022:
Westchester County reported 428 new covid infections Thursday on 7,882 Tests.
Today, Saturday, 297 persons were reported Covid Positive based on Friday tests.
Unless Saturday infections (that will be reported Sunday tomorrow), drop to less than 107 new infections, the County will experience its 4th consecutive week of increasing infections.
Westchester reported 29,552 tests this week, an average of 4,925 tests a day. Of those 29,552 tests, there were 1,920 persons who tested positive, a positive infection rate of 6%.
Two weeks ago April April 3 to 9, 1,895 persons tested positive.
Right now on April 22 there 1,920 new infections indicating the spread rate of 1,895 persons two weeks ago infect 1 other person over 6 days.
The first 6 days of this week show infections from March 27 to April 2 Spread Rate being slightly better than the March 27 to April 2nd infections and new infections two weeks later where 1,095 tested positive March 27 to April 2nd, 14 days later infecting 2,027 last week, a spread rate of each of those 1,095 positives infecting 1-3/4 persons the week of April 10 through 16 (2,027 divided by 1095)..
If Saturday’s infections continue at the 320 a day of new positives, and we will know that tomorrow evening, Westchester will increase to 2,240 for the week, or each 1 person infected with covid two weeks ago spreading to 1.18 or slightly more than 1 other person.
At this point the most ominous stat is the 428 new infections reported in the county Thursday of 7,882 tested (the highest number of tests administered/reported in the week).
Hold on, Mr. Bailey! Why is that ominous,? you ask , you’re just being sensational! We have an even spread!
Bear with me. Say 2,000 more came in for tests the day 7,882 were tested and 4.7% tested positive or personally reported themselves positive you could conceivably have ad a lot more positives out there.
Why? The average infection rate the last 6 days was 6.7% of those tested. If you tested 10,000 you might have 680 new positives, not 428. If you tested 12,000 a day you might have 804 Positives a day. That is 5,600 a week.
My point is voluntary or as needed testing and not mass testing gives you a false sense of confidence. Test low numbers you get low numbers. The last 4 weeks prove that.
The lack of adequate testing numbers does not give you the true picture. More testing needs to be mandated with evidence of testing negative to enter work places, schools, venues, restaurants athletic events, performances and of course at large events and social events and when entering cities traveling..
If you have cold symptoms, fever and certainly if not vaccinated, you need to go in and get tested.
The statistics with testing data in low quantities whether because of the laissez faire policy of relying on volunteer self-testing it would seem to me does not give an crystal clear picture of the spreading of the disease.
That is what the last 4 weeks show.
Of course, vaccinations are not too popular now. Everbody wants to believe we are back to normal.
Four weeks of rising infections show we are not testing responsibly, not vaccinating conscientiously and not being careful.