FEB 24—-OUTBREAK NORTHEAST REGION FROM CAITLIN RIVERS

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Welcome to the Northeast edition of Outbreak Outlook! It is only available to paid subscribers. If you wish to become a paid subscriber and access region-specific information, please click the Subscribe now button below. Thanks for reading! -Caitlin

Respiratory Diseases

Influenza

Flu activity is finally starting to recede. What a year it has been!

New York City leads the Northeast region with an outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) rate of 10.6%.

Massachusetts is not far behind at 10.2%, though this is a big decrease from 11.8% in the previous week. Emergency department visits stand at 8.3%, a drop of 1.8 percentage points from the previous week.

As a reminder, outpatient ILI is the percentage of visits to the doctor that are for fever and cough or sore throat. The emergency department metric is the percentage of visits to the ED that are for influenza.

Northeast: Outpatient influenza-like illness
% of visits to the doctor that are for fever and either cough or sore throat

New Hampshire follows with an outpatient ILI rate of 10.0%, down from 10.9% last week. The state shows the highest emergency department visit percentage in the region at 9.5%, though this represents a 0.6 percentage point decrease from the previous week.

Maine is third highest in the region with an outpatient ILI rate of 8.8%, a notable increase from 6.8% the previous week. Emergency department visits are at 7.2%, one of the few states showing an increase (+0.5 percentage points) in ED visits week-over-week.

New Jersey and Rhode Island have moderate activity levels, with outpatient ILI rates of 7.9% (down from 10.2%) and 6.8% (stable from 6.9%) respectively. Emergency department visits in New Jersey decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 6.9%, while Rhode Island’s ED visits fell by 1.5 percentage points to 4.5%.

The largest states in the region have lower activity. Connecticut reports an outpatient ILI rate of 6.2% (down from 6.8%) with a hospitalization rate of 11.6 per 100,000, representing a significant decrease of 10.6 per 100,000 from the previous week. New York state shows an outpatient ILI rate of 6.0% (stable from 6.1%) with a hospitalization rate of 14.3 per 100,000, down 2.3 from the previous week. Pennsylvania reports the region’s lowest outpatient ILI rate at 4.9% (down slightly from 5.1%), with ED visits decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 7.3%.

Northeast: ED visits for influenza (%)
% of visits to the emergency department that are for influenza

COVID-19

There is quite a bit of variation in Covid-19 activity across the Northeast. While wastewater activity has decreased to low levels in the region as a whole, it remains quite high in several states. Severe illness remains fairly low-to-moderate across much of the region.

Wastewater activity is high and decreasing in New JerseyConnecticut, and holding steady in Pennsylvania. In Massachusetts, activity has rebounded to high levels.

However, wastewater activity has dropped to moderate levels in Maine, Vermont, and Rhode Island, and continues to be very low and stable in New York. (Insufficient data for New Hampshire.)

Northeast: Covid-19 wastewater concentration
Wastewater concentration of SARS-CoV-2

ED visits are low (<1.5%) and decreased or stable across the region.

Northeast: ED visits for Covid-19 (%)
% of visits to the emergency department that are for Covid-19

Hospitalizations are low in Maine (1.9 hospitalizations per 100,000 people) and have decreased to fairly low levels in Rhode Island (3.2), New Jersey (3.2), and Connecticut (4.1). New York held steady at a moderate 4.0. Hospitalizations remain high in Pennsylvania (8.5), but are on the decline. (Hospitalization data was not available this week for VermontNew Hampshire, and Massachusetts.)


RSV

RSV activity is low and declining in the Northeast, with all states reporting that well under 1% of visits to the emergency department are for RSV. I expect activity to remain low until next fall.

Northeast: ED visits for RSV (%)
% of visits to the emergency department that are for RSV

Other Bugs

A few common causes of colds are at or nearing their high points for the season.

Human coronaviruses look to be nearing a peak, roughly consistent with peaks the past several years tending to fall in February-March. Human metapneumovirus also is at its highest point so far this season.


Stomach Bugs

This brutal norovirus season continues. Test positivity decreased slightly to 19.1% this week. Rates have been oscillating between ~15-22% since mid-December and I expect rates to remain quite elevated for the next several weeks, much to my – and I expect your – disappointment.

Source: CDC


Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

New:

  • Nothing new this week

Previously reported:

  • Menma Ajitsuke Prepared Bamboo Shoots sold under Choshiya brand name (more info)
  • Canned Tuna sold under Genova, Van Camp’s, H-E-B, and Trader Joe’s brand names (more info)
  • Alfalfa sprouts sold under the Jack and the Green Sprouts brand name (more info)
  • Aleppo Tahini Sesame Paste (more info)
  • DJ’s Boudain sausage links (more info)
  • If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.

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