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WESTCHESTER NEW COVID CASES IN AUGUST PROJECT TO 4,275 FOR MONTH

 

WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. By John F. Bailey. August 27, 2024:

 Authorities in health facilities, businesses, and school districts should expect the largest number of  new covid cases in the New York Metropolitan area   has seen since the start of covid

WPCNR projects approximately 42,350 persons could catch covid in the next month. Sadly this number may soar higher  after the Labor Day Weekend and schools start.

It is how many we spread it to that will cause the rise in infections in a thoroughly predictable progression.

The disease infection rate continues to be 1 new person infecting 1 other person within 2 days. But has gone up to 1 person infecting 2 by the end of last week.

At the rate new cases are growing daily in Westchester,Rockland Orange, Putnam, Dutchess, Ulster, Nassau and Suffolk Counties as of Monday and the 5 boroughs of New York City even with the present infection rate the disease is at a steady growth rate resulting in far greater infections this September than last.

This is what the numbers tell me.

Monday the New York State Department of Health reported Westchester was running 12 new cases a day per 100,000 of population the last 7 days. When multiplied by 10.04 (1,004,000) the County is getting 118  cases a day the last week which gave the County 822 a week or 3,290 for the three weeks of August. Last week  through Friday we had 811 which  if we get  90 for last Saturday would give the county 872 for last week up from 851 last week.

So far , the state on their 3-day delay reporting schedule has no figures for this the last week in August.

If we  follow last week’s numbers  we will get another 810 cases giving the county 4,275 for the month of August. The ratio of infection is 851 new cases on August 18 spread the disease  to  2 persons, or 1 infects 2 that is up from the 1 infects 1.

The 1 new infection rate has 1 new case infecting 2 others which  doubles the amount of new cases.

 

What is going on in the Mid-Hudson region is:

 more cases per day spreading to more people more  often faster than ever before.

Let’s take you through it. Bear in mind that the number cases per day in each county is per 100,000 in population. The populations of the 7 counties are:

Westchester: 1,004,456 Segments of 100,000, 10.04

Orange: 408,449 Segments of 100,000: 4.08

Rockland: 341,257 Segments of 100,000: 4.08

Dutchess: 296,691 Segments of 100,000: 2.96

Ulster: 177,573 Segments of 100,000: 1.77

Putnam: 98,320 Segments of 100,000: 0.98

Sullivan: 75,432  Segments of 100,000: 0.75

Editor’s Note: The number total daily covid new cases  for the county is  determined by multiplying the daily new cases by the number of segments of 100,000 given in the last number.

 

The Mid Hudson region is increasing cases too.

On last Friday the Mid-Hudson region counties reported 225 cases  with Westchester accounting for  12 new cases a day (times Westcheser’s 10.04 million or 1,112 for the week going into next week.

Rockland has 32 cases/100,000, 1pop that day giving Rockland 345 cases a day. Orange was running 49 new cases per 100,000/pop or 641 for the week;

Dutchess 24 new cases a day per 100,000 pop or  235 for the week. Ulster had 9 a day or 76 for the week’ Putnam 87 for the week and Sullivan 107.

Totals for the week 2,603 over 7 days With all 7 counties averaging 24 new cases a day  per 100,000 of population. The 2.4 million population of the Mid Hudson region is running 24 cases a day x 2.4 Million creating  404 new cases a day, 2,824 a week—which raises the Mid Hudson region to  11,300 new cases in September.

This can be stopped and lowered if we stop spreading the disease  at  the dangerous  one person infects 2 infection rate.

Let’s look at this chilling  effect.

For every extra person over 1 that a covid positive or covid carrying person infects you double infections.

They spread it to 3 you triple infections; one spreads it to 4, total cases quadruple in two to 3 days, not weeks.

The in the last 30 weeks  covid cases have rose in 24 of those weeks.

Significantly in August of 2023, the entire month of August resulted in 3,849. This August Westchester has recorded 3,465 case of covid through 3 weeks and if  this the last week hits another 810 cases this August will surpass last August.

New York City and Nassau and Suffolk Counties are rising to in new covid infections which will create a heavy burden on the medical facilities.

Last week New York City on Friday reported the following:

Manhattan 7,931,147 pop, 100,000 segments 79.3

7.6 daily cases, 603 daily, 4,219 a week, 16,876 in a month projected

Brooklyn 2,679,260 Segments 100,000: 26.8

2.7 daily cases 188 weekly 750 in a month

QUEENS 2,225,834 Pop. Segments/100,000: 22.2

22 cases daily, 488 weekly, 1,953 in month

BRONX  1,297,660 Segments/100,000: 13

9 cases daily/100,000 117 weekly. 468 In Month

STATEN ISLAND 475,000 Segments/100,000: 475

11.3 cases Daily/100,000 Segments/100,000: 4.75

54 cases daily/100,000 weekly 376 1,503 in Month

 

Total cases in Month from NYC at present case rate: 21 550

ADD THIS TO THE

 

LONG ISLAND COUNTIES ARE SPREADING THE DISEASE AT  11.2 CASES A DAY 154 FOR NASSAU COUNTY AND 13.3 CASES A DAY, 203 A DAY IN SUFFOLK.

NASSAU LAST FRIDAY HAD 1,081 CASES LAST FRIDAY  WEEKLY WHICH WORKS OUT TO MORE THAN WESTCHESTER COUNTY. NASSAU PROJECTS AT THE 11.2 DAILY CASE RATE AT 154 DAILY TO 1,081 A WEEK OR  4,324 IN A MONTH AT THEIR PRESENT INFECTION RATE.

SUFFOLK COUNTY 13.3 NEW CASES A DAY LAST FRIDAY (AN AVERAGE FOR 7 DAYS PREVIOUS) COMPUTE TO  203 DAILY CASES , 1,421 WEEKLY AND 5,O84 FOR THE MONTH A HEAD THOSE TWO COUNTIES ARE GOING COVID AT A RATE TO PRESENT 9,500 INTO THE CASE MIX.

That is only if we stay at the infection of 1 person infecting 2!

Total possibility for infections of covid in September in the metropolitan area: 42,350

Mid-Hudson: 11,300

New York City: 21,550

Long Island: 9,500

That is what the numbers say.