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WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from NY Covid Tracker. Observation and Analysis By John F. Bailey. September 25, 2023:
The 167 Persons in Westchester County newly infected positive with Covid in 7 days since Thursday, September 14 spread the very infectious new strains of covid to 1,260 persons in 7 days meaning that each person spread their covid infection to 7.5 other persons. Considering that the disease in the area is infecting 7 persons for every person testing positive within 2 days this is cause for concern.
Covid is spreading fast, fast, fast.
The 2 week infected person spreading their covid to others in the first two weeks in September was one person infecting 2 persons, figured by 919 infections August 20 to 26 infecting 1,991 persons August 27 through September 9, a rising rate from the containing 1 to 1 infection rate in early August. Since September 9th infections have risen in midweek to approximately 194 a day the first 5 days September 17 to 21.
You contact someone within 2 days you come down with symptoms perhaps cold symptoms or a slight fever, chills. The persons you saw within 24 hours to 48 hours you may have given the disease to.
In a week September 14 to 21, 167 covid infections on the 14 have accounted for 1,260 new covid cases.
This week Westchester is on track for 1,358 new cases, the 7th week of rising covid infections in a covid environment infecting faster at the rate of 186 cases a day (18.6 new cases a day for 100,000 segments of Westchester’s population, 10,004,000.) The 186 cases a day computes to 1,302 cases for this week; and if the spread rate continues at a 1 person newly infected infecting 7 other persons the disease will spread exponentially.
The disease is spreading in the boroughs of New York City at the rate of 1,537 new covid cases a day.
Nassau and Suffolk are spreading at a total for the two counties of 700 new cases a day.
The Mid-Hudson Region has Westchester leading infections with 161, Orange and Rockland with 78, Dutchess, 48, and Sullivan, with 11 and Putnam 7 for a total of 383 cases a day..
The number of antigen (home test positives) lab verified is running 33% of new covid cases in New York City.
In Westchester the antigen test verified cases as part of the 161 Westchester total is 32%.
In Nassau and Suffolk County people are getting covid at the highest rate of all 7 counties and New York City. Of 700 total covid positives in Nassau and Suffolk Counties, 52% of the cases, 361 were verified antigen positives. That says to me people are getting sick, going for antigen tests, testing positive with the ominous “+” sign and going for treatment.
If my extrapolations are on target based on the state numbers, the spread is not lessening. The disease is quick-spreading as shown by 200 a day infections in Westchester at midweek.
People are not being careful, not masking, and well the disease is exploiting their behavior.
The unknown factor are the infections of covid among school children going back to school districts not paying attention to infections, verifying covid cases in students, and not reporting them. If they are school as usual this will inflate cases among children and their parents and that is impossible to tell of the extent of what the “Invisible School Spread” will be.