JUNE 28 NY PRIMARY ANALYSIS

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WPCNR CAMPAIGN 2022. Analysis by Professor Stephen R. Rolandi June 23, 2022

Professor Stephen Rolandi

WPCNR Political Analyst

Primary Day is next Tuesday for statewide offices and the Assembly; as a result of successful legal challenges to the initial redistricting plans for Federal offices and the State Senate, a second primary will be held on August 23.

The main event is the primary races for Governor and Lt. Governor. Gov. Kathy Hochul is being challenged for the Democratic nomination by U.S. Representative Tom Suozzi and NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, who have waged spirited campaigns.

The Governor’s relatively strong approval ratings, large campaign war chest and support from upstate and women voters will carry her to victory. Rep. Suozzi should do well on Long Island and Mr. Williams’ strength will be in the City.

Governor Hochul’s coattails should be strong enough to bring her new Lt. Governor running mate along with her.

The GOP race is more fluid with the official party (and Conservative Party/Parents Party nominee) designee Rep. Lee Zelden battling three strong candidates, including former Westchester County Executive Robert Astorino. The GOP organization should be able to pull this one out for Mr. Zelden.  Andrew Giuliani, son of the former Mayor, will make this close, on his strength among Republican voters in NYC.  Here are my pre-primary calls:

Democratic Primary:

Governor:                                  Lt. Governor:

Hochul*       49%                       Delgado*    43%

Suozzi          31%                       Reyna          35%

Williams      20%                       Archila        22%

Republican Primary:

Governor:

Zelden          34%

Giuliani        31%

Astorino       21%

Wilson          14%

*incumbent

Note: There are no primaries for Lt. Governor, Controller and AG on the GOP side; nor primaries for Controller and AG on the Democratic ballot.

(Professor Stephen Rolandi previously served as Deputy Commissioner for the New York State Division of Human Rights, and the New York City Department of Records and Information Services. A political scientist, he is an Adjunct Professor of Public Administration at Pace University and John Jay College of Criminal Justice, CUNY. His views do not necessarily reflect those of his current/former employers).

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