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WPCNR CORONAVIRUS JOURNAL. By John F. Bailey. December 27, 2021. UPDATED DECEMBER 28. 2021:

County Executive George Latimer announced this morning on WVOX Radio that 214 people in Westchester suffering from covid hospitlizations were hospitalized Friday as of December 24. Based on the number of covid positives two weeks ago on Friday, December 10 this means that of the 459, 53% were hospitalized. Not all of course contracted covid at the same time, Mr. Latimer said a month ago, the county had only 50 persons hospitalized.

The Westchester Covid Tracker reports unofficially that Christmas Eve Covid positive Infections hit 1,900 new infections and Christmas Day setting an all time record infections for the county, 2,900. Previously the highest was 1,300 March 25, 2020. The Westchester infection rate was 15.7% on Friday’s positives of the 7,595 tested

Mr. Latimer also said on his Tuesday morning broadcast, the county asked the state to open the Westchester County Center for testing tomorrow and that persons had to call for an appointment to take a covid test. He said the county did this to meet the overwhelming demand for tests by the public that were creating long lines at pharmacies as well as a shortage of tests.

The New York State Covid Tracker did not post Friday and Saturday results because of the Christmas Day holiday. Friday tthere were 1,189 Westchester new covid positives of 7,595 tested.

On last Thursday, December 23 the last day of New York Covid Tracker testing results,  Westchester reported 1,869 new cases of 13,655 tested persons. That is a positive rate of 13.7% –A Westchester high.

In WPCNR’s Daily Mid-Hudson Journal of covid trends, Westchester County broke its all-time highest day record December 21 reporting 1,755 new sufferers positive with Covid. The prior record was reached January 14, 2021. December 22, Wednesday the count set a new record, 2,363 infections and Thursday December 23 another 1,869 cases,

The sweep of the Red Plague is sobering.

The testing results after this past Christmas weekend show the new covid pace of self-infection through socializing and refusal to vaccinate may cause this 2,000 a day rate to soar. A grim spectre of infections in January the likes of which the county has not seen is a distinct possibility.

The 7-county Mid-Hudson region reported 3,040 new covid cases last Thursday. Westchester accounted for 2/3 of the new persons positive with Covid among the seven counties.

Nassau and Suffolk County are each averaging 16.7 per cent positives a day of those tested. Nassau reported 3,438 cases Thursday; Suffolk, 3,553. Those counties are in “Free Rise.” (Friday, Nassau and Suffolk counties reported 4,628 positives–positive infection rates of 18% of all tested. the lowest Nassau amd Suffolk have recorded in 5 days.)

New York City suffered  23,804 new cases Thursday double that of the 7-counties plus Nassau and Suffolk Counties totl, which accounted for 10,041 new positives in the  9 counties surrounding New York City. (Friday New York City reported 18,168 positives in all 5 boroughs compared to the Mid-Hudson and Nassau Suffolk Counties total of 6,639. New York City is infecting three times more people than the 9 counties surrounding it.)

The 1,869 Westchester infections Thursday the 23rd, paint a spectre of thousands of cases. Since the disease infects within 10 to 14 days. We go back to December 9 when 497 persons were tested covid positive. The 497 persons then, divided into the 1,869 infections found last Thursday means each of the 497 infected 3.76 persons.

In two weeks the 2,000 persons a day infections at that rate would deliver 8,000 new infections a day the second week in January. If Westchester covid positive persons continue at the 2,000 infections a day rate, infecting 3.76 persons each , the county will see over 50,000 infections the third week. Based on last week hospitalizations 50% may require hospitalization, (25,000 in three weeks). if the hospitalizations are lower this week say 25%, we will still see 12,000 hospitalizations of this 2,000 a day of new infections continues the next week.

(The number of hospitalizations Friday demonstrate a hospitalization rate of 50% of persons infected two weeks ago, that would mean the new Friday 1,189 new positives would produce 600 hospitalizations within a day or two of January 8. it would also show that they are getting sicker, primarily because Mr. Latimer said the majority of patients needing hospitalization are not vaccinated. At this 1,000 infections a day pace, and the spread rate of 1 infected person infecting 3 others, projects 4,200 persons needing hospital care in Westchester for their covid the week of January 8)

This is not to panic anyone but it should. It is simple math.

We now have 11,000 new infections since last Monday through Christmas Day in Westchester County. They are infecting 3 to 3.76 persons for every one of them infected. You do the math:

41,360 infections in two weeks. If only 10% of 40,000 infected need hospitalization, you still have 4,000 hospitalizations. Westchester only has 2,700 beds. If the cases are worse because they are unvaccinated, you may have a 50% hospitalization rate creating 20,000 persons needing hospitalizations.The cumulative effect of compounding infections skyrockets hospitalizations, quadrupling hospitalizations rapidly.

Such a rate of hospitalization will blow past Westchester County ability to handle hospitalizations.

This is incentive to get the vaccine, I believe. And vaccinate your children 5 to 18.

Why? The Netherlands is in lockdown right now.

The Netherlands reports that part of the reason is the large number of children in school being infected. The Netherlands article on the Op-Ed page of The New York Times this morning by Senay Boztas in Amsterdam is must reading to see how The Netherlands got to another lockdown.

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