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WPCNR CORONA VIRUS REPORT. By John F. Bailey. December 13, 2021 UPDATED 10:45 P.M. E.S.T.:
New covid positive persons from TWO weeks back reveal covid in Westchester is tripling in new infections every two weeks.
Persons tested positive two weeks ago ( November 20 to 27) spread the disease to 3 others for every new positive that week.
The daily total in two weeks time will equal or surpass horridly by far the 1,300 new cases a day the county experienced in the first weeks of covid March 31, 2020, before the first lockdown
Tuesday evening, the New York State covid tracker reported Saturday the 11th covid numbers, finishing off this week with 350 new persons testing positive, 4.8% of 7,306 tested.
This new number brings the December 5 through 11 week total to 2,788, an average of 398 new cases a day last week, ending two days ago.
Two weeks ago there were 907 new infections, and here, two weeks later we have 2,788, spiking the new infection rate from covid-infected persons two weeks ago to a level where each newly infected person infected 3 others.
The daily total in two weeks will equal or surpass horridly by far the 1,300 new cases a day the county experienced in the first weeks of covid March 25, 2020.
Last week from December 6 through Friday, December 10, IN 6 DAYS new covid infections approached 3,000 cases at 2,548, with Saturday’s infections expected tonight.395 on December 6, 366 on Pearl Harbor Day; then the shocker, 444 on December 8, and then, 497 on December 9 and 459 on December 10.
The 2,548 new cases hit highs not seen since last March 28, 2021 when Westchester hit 459; and early we Westchester recorded 584 on March 31, when vaccines were starting to stop the 2nd wave in April.
Westchester now is on track for over 6,582, based on the 2,438 new infections sufferers in 6 days last week. Those 2,438 were infected by most of the 907 newly infected Westchesterites two weeks prior during the week of November 20 to 27, the first victims of the Thanksgiving three day holiday dividing the 2,438 figure by 907 produces an infection rate of 2.8 showing every person infected two weeks ago spread the disease to close to 3 persons.
Not all persons get sick immediately the infections occur over 10 to 14 days. If you multiply 907 by three persons this shows the infections grew to the figure of last week, 2,438.
If the 2,438 spread the disease at the same rate this produces 6,582 new infections by Christmas. Tonight the Saturday total of 350, raising the new infections last week to 2,788 means at 3 infected for every person, that total could rise to 8,364, unless more people get vaccinated fast and protect themselves with masks, social distancing and not exposing mouth and nose to breathe in the pestilence, the Red Plague.
The most covids Westchester saw was on March 25, 2020: 1,300.
In two weeks this chilling spread rate of the last two weeks fueled by new socialization since Thanksgiving, and community events, and socializing without masks, and positive thinking that the recovery is here and we are safe and can be normal again
The infection rate is on projection to increase infections 7 times more than the worst covid infection day ever in two weeks.
The effect on hospitalizations cannot be known until we get a handle on what this week’s hospitalization rate in Westchester County. Last week the County Executive said there were 84 hospitalizations on track to 100 and called it a state of emergency.
A week ago Westchester had 84 hospitalizations, the county declared a prestate of emergency, not making any moves to mask or close anything, but threatening it was coming if we hit 100 hospitalizations.
The 907 new infections two weeks ago resulted in 84 or 9.3% of new covid sufferers in Westchester being hospitalized. Officials were optimistic the county was controlling the disease better and hospitalizations going up but not at a rapid rate.
The possibly 6, 582 infections if the number needing hospitalized stays at 9.3%, those infected two weeks ago would have had 100 hospitalizations if the hospitalization goes up 11%; 125, if the hospitalizing rate hits 14%; 150 hospitalizations if 16% of the 907 needed hospitalization and 200 hospitalizations if the hospitalized are just 22% of the 907 total.
The total 6,582 new covid cases by Christmas at the current low 9.3% rate of hospitalization would produce 612 hosptializations by January 7 around the county.
It is imperative this spread rate be stopped and infections go down dramatically person to person and people get vaccinated now who are not vaccinated.
Currently Westchester County has 708,909 persons of its 1.4 million population fully vaccinated and 93% of the population over 18 with one dose. Those 224,811 who only have one dose need to get those shots and parents of children under 12 but not under 5 need to get your children vaccinated to keep the schools open.
Now.
The current spread is about to explode in new infections numbers never seen.
Unless we get vaccinated, hospitals will not be able to treat even mild cases at this rate of spread.
I hope my math is wrong; I do truly hope I am wrong. But it’s not.
I am going to very careful.
This is no magic formula, just baseball statistics and vaccine.
Please get yours for your sake. Call for your shot or shots and bring the under-12s for theirs.
Nothing is worse than watching your child suffer, and hearing them cry,”Make it better, Mommie”
And you can’t.
Chair of the Westchester County Board of Legislators Benjamin Boykin reminded all of
Westchester that beginning today there is a new indoor mask requirement in New York State.On December 10, 2021, Governor Kathy Hochul announced that masks will be required to be worn in all indoor public places unless businesses or venues implement a vaccine requirement.
In all public spaces that do not have vaccine requirements, any person, past their second birthday and medically able to tolerate a face covering, must wear an appropriate mask while in any indoor place, regardless of vaccination status.
This action is designed to address the winter surge comes as COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations rise statewide and is in alignment with the CDC’s recommendations for communities with substantial and high transmission.
The measure will remain in effect through January 15, 2022 at which time the State will evaluate next steps.The requirement applies to all non-private residences, including office spaces.
If the office does not require proof of vaccination as a condition of entry, everyone must wear masks at all times regardless of vaccination status except when eating, drinking, or alone in an enclosed room.
Patrons of eating and drinking establishments can remove their masks only while they are actively eating or drinking, at which time appropriate social distancing measures, proper air ventilation, and filtration methods are highly recommended.