WPCNR CORONA VIRUS BULLETIN. From the New York State Covid Tracker, Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey, July 28, 2022:
Following the midweek Covid Surge Pattern of the last 19 weeks, The Covid Tracker reported 411 PRS (lab-verified) new persons tested with the corona virus in Westchester County.
Sunday the 24 to Wednesday, the 27th, on the last week of July, there were 266, 199, 327 and yesterday 411 new persons down with covid, an average of 300 new infections a day, which if continued through Saturday will give Westchester County 2,100 infections for the week . Last week Thursday through Saturday, the county had 3 days of 342, 344, and 349 new positives so we may have just short of the 2,360 infections last week.
There is small comfort from that because the county is only testing an average of 2,564 persons a day. At infection rates of 10% in those small quantities, you might assume if more tests were done that were PRS (lab verified) you would have far more infections that the average positives coming from these very low testing figures.
If the pattern swings up from the Thursday, Friday and Saturday levels the last week of July would be the 11th week in 14 weeks of “up” weeks in covid infections. With 2,100 infections for the week compared to 2,360 last week, the county would be just shy of 10,000 infections in July (9, 925)
In July of 2021, Westchester County had just 470 covid cases, 59 a day. Those 470 positives in June 2021 lead to the beginning of the 2nd wave of covid in July 2021 when cases went up to 1,782 in July 2021, each new positive infecting 4 persons.
This year because testing is down sharply to below 2,500 bonafide PRC (lab-analysed) tests you have no idea how many persons are out there relaxing, socializing, infecting. There is no bonafide infection rate.
Last month June 2022, using New York State Tracker figures, Westchester County totaled 9,642 new positives in 30 days, a spread rate of 321 new cases a day and they are spreading the cases faster testing positive within 2 days. not 10 to 14, the spread rate of the old covid. Since the B.A.5 Variant is at large, it is indeed proving much more contagiously covid this month.
What have those 9,642 positives in July done so far, created just about 10,000 infections in July, sustaining their spread to just about 1 other person. That is actually good news, but wait–testing is limited, they may seen more than one person. We do not know, because tracing has declined.
What we can expect in August is another 10,000 infections if not more. Because of the unknown universe of asymtomatic, positives walking around thinking they are cured.
The Midweek Covid Surge Pattern is continuing and it has continued consistently for 20 weeks since early March.
The syndrome reflects heightened social activity by all ages, outdoor recreation without restriction, no masking policies that are enforced, no penalties of any kind, expanded entertainment capacities, outdoor festivals and concerts.
With schools opening in one month, with no plans I have heard of by any school district for precautions of disease spreading even in view of the monkeypox situation; with much more of a universe of positives in a month hitting the schools potentially–Superintendents of Schools, the State Education Department and the New York State Health Department and communities across Westchester should give this some careful “what if scenarios?” and what they would do.
More to the point, what is the State Senate, the State Assembly think about the covid situation? And the Disease of the week, Monkeypox, which has gone from squibs to headlines in a week?
Since the State Houses in Albany relieved Governor Andrew M. Cuomo of the Governor ability to take emergency measures and invoke emergency powers, only the State Senate and State Assembly have the power to order statewide emergency measures (as Governor Cuomo did and his measures stopped the first wave of covid cold by April 1 of 2020, and then it came back after the restrictions were lifted.
Assemblyman Chris Burdick of the 93rd Assembly District told WPCNR this afternoon that the current state budget has set aside financial resources in the budget to fund possible covid expenses for emergency actions the two legislative houses deem necessary as conditions of covid appear to require, and now the Monkeypox threat is a source of serious concern.
I asked Assemblyman Burdick if the atmosphere in Albany during the special session just completed reflected awareness and concern for the infection surges in the Mid-Hudson, Long Island and in the five boroughs of New York City.
He said the concern in the Special Session only dealt with the Abortion legislation and crafting new “concealed carry” laws. He said he, since he does not sit on the Health Committee he could not comment on the Health Committee concerns, if any, about the covid spread and its new companion threat Monkeypox.
I asked under what circumstances would possible measures be taken up by the legislatures (in view of the legislature now in charge of approving Emergency y Measures, having relieved the former Governor Cuomo of that power.)
Burdick said that if Governor Kathy Hochul felt emergency measures and actions were necessary to handle the dual disease threat rolling into the fall, she would have to call an Emergency Session of the legislature to take up steps she felt were necessary for State Senate and State Assembly for approval.
Of course, with Governor Hochul apparently reluctant to seize the covid issue worried about getting elected, pushing for some mandatory covid and monkey pox containment will irresponsibly be seized by her opponent who comes from the area of the state that is responsible for bringing covid back, Nassau and Suffolk Counties. This week Nassau and Suffolk counties have combined for 4,683 new positives in 4 days, double that of Westchester County. This is not new.
And you know the legislators do not want to shut down schools, shut down businesses, shut down theatres and restaurants, and they desperately want to get people out of their homes back to work in the city to spur that city revenue driver.
Covid and Monkeypox are rising
As Frank Sinatra sang, “It’s up to you New York New York.”