COVID SPREAD BUILDING BASED ON WEEKS OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IN NEW INFECTIONS. 4,000 IN NEW INFECTIONS A DAY CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

Hits: 180

THE WPCNR COVID LOGS SUNDAY, MONDAY, TUESDAY. Note that the the Mid Hudson region and Nassau and Suffolk Counties total infections 22,828 are half of New York City infections (416,158 on Tuesday, jan 4)
Note too, the high positive infection rates of the Mid-Hudson Region 22%

WPCNR COVIDMETRICS. By John F. Bailey. January 8, 2021:

Westchester County Sunday through Tuesday  the first week of 2022 returned to its level of 4,000 new covid positives a day,   continuing to spread the virus at last week of December levels which will result in another week of more than 20,000 new positives, the first week in January. They will in-turn at the conservative spread rate of

According to the New York Covid Tracker which continues to lag two days behind Governor Hochul’s statistics provide in her updates, On Sunday January 2, Westchester recorded 3.936 new oositives of 15,672 tested, a 25% positive infection rate,  Monday January 3, 4,175 positives were diagnosed of 18,251 tested, 23%. On Tuesday, January 4, the county found 3,980 of 16,575 tested, 24% infection rate. If this pace of 4,030  (average) a day, 

Westchester may see  28,210 new positives this week.  The second week of January  may see those 28,000 spread  to  5 persons for every one of those 28,210 who may spread the virus to another 140 thousand Westchester residents the third week of January to the end of January.

Here is how the spread ratio worked out with   5,397 persons infected the week of December 12 to  18 who over the two week period of incubation for covid (10 to 14 days), who spread the disease the last two weeks. Those 5,397 infected with covid December  12 to 18 when divided into  the 26,003 infections last week  show those 5,397 infected 5 persons for  every one of those 5,397, five times the 1 to 2 person spread previous.

This shows the omicron variant definitely is spread the disease faster and to more people. That somber  astioundubf calculation shows omicron  is cloaking the county in a stifling  malignant  melancholy and fear and causing the populace to dismiss the reality of the pandemic.

Looking at December this Red Plague is sweeping Westchester and the New York Metropolitan area for a month, racheting up infections weekly.

November 28 to December 4 –1,960 infections (280 a day)

December 4 to 11–2,788 infections (398 a day)

December 11  to 18—5,397 INFECTIONS (771 a day)

December 19 to 25—11,450 INFECTIONS  (1,600 a day)

December 26 to JAN  1:   26,002 INFECTIONS   ( 3,714 A Day)

January 2 to JJanuary 9:   28,000??  (4,000 a day projection)

December 26 cohort of 11,450 infections spreading to 28,000 people  this week would lower spread rate of those 11,450 infections to 1 person infecting 2.2., a big improvement but we are only in midweek according to the Covid Track 48 hour lag.

Comments are closed.