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WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from NY Covid Health Department. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey. May 30, 2023.

The daily covid positives in Westchester County based on positive lab verified results  per 100,000 population numbered 156 through Saturday May 27.  The week of May 21 through May 27 marked the 6th  straight week since the week of April  9 to 15 (when Westchester reported 228 new cases) that the county has averaged a stubborn slow decline in covid cases from 288  down to 156 last week, a 11% decline in 6 weeks.

The average new daily cases per week has averaged 174 cases a week , a total of 1,045 across Westchester the last 6 weeks. Every week 174 new cases were reported in Westchester.

At White Plains, at White Plains Hospital Medical Center, the hospitalizations of persons seriously ill with covid requiring rooms at the hospital have averaged 60% of all persons admitted to hospital beds through the first 29 days of may (71 coved patient admissions to rooms of 119 admitted, 60%). The covid admissions to rooms amount to  11 of 28 hospitalizations last week, a decline from the previous week. This is a reminder that if you have not gotten fully vaccinated and your two boosters, you might want to get up to date. Covid is out there. It is stubbornly hanging on.

As readers of this column know, only daily cases lab verified are being reported by the Covid Tracker. This means the total cases of positives out there on any given day is not known  (not verified because there is no trace testing, no admonition to have antigen tests reported for verification by a lab).

The ability to project covid spread into the summer is hard to tell. Well, the daily cases per 100,000 in Westchester the last month work out when multiplied by Westchester County population of 1,004,000 we can tell you how the disease will spread, whether it will grow, remain the same or diminish.

Through May, it diminished but now seems to be reducing in infections and is plateau at 175 a month.

Last week the new infections were at 2.3 a day per 100,000 population for 7 days.  Multiply that by 10.04 ( 1,004,000 Westchester population) that works out to 23 new cases a day. That means  161 new infections were the potential new covid cases last week based on the population. If the 2.3  daily rate continues, and you multiply that by 4 weeks the month of June may see 2,584 infections of actual infections. But wait!

The 2,584 infections expected from this artificially low positive 2.3 daily cases per 100,000 are verified.

Who knows who will go in and get lab-tested?

Last June the “Anything Goes” lack of enforcement of covid infections  was instituted by the state legislature that took away the Governor’s powers  in 2021to declare a health emergency gave the covid disease a 5th wave.  In June of 2022, 9,632 infections (lab verified) that was based on actual test positives were recorded, which climbed to over 10,000 new covid infections. Totals of new covid cases daily average 300 a day for the month of June last year.

Will this Summer Spread happen again?  The vaccines have steadily lowered the number of covid cases the last 11 months.

We have no way of knowing how many persons will be out there in June carrying covid and not getting positive antigen tests verified by a lab test,  and how sick they will get.

If you go by projecting the present 2.3 daily infection rate,  the daily infections not counted by verification of antigen tests, could be a very low number of the daily infections (lab tested) continue to decline. If the daily rate goes up, will they go up another 3,000 perhaps?

The only way to prevent getting covid if the June  mystery covid carriers multiply and start growing to last year’s levels, is to complete your vaccine series and the boosters. And mask more. Very few were masked when I was out in public over the weekend.


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