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WPCNR CORONA VIRUS SURVEILLANCE. From the New York State Covid 19 Tracker. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. November 28, 2022. UPDATED 1:15 p.m. EST:

WESTCHESTER COUNTY spread covid in November at a rate that will produce 5, 500 new cases by the week before Christmas.

IF the rate Westchester residents are spreading the disease spreads it any faster than it is now, (1 person infected– infecting 2 others), the county will likely see 12,000 infections by the week leading up to Christmas duplicating last year’s December wave.

(Editor’s Note: Saturday new Westchester covid cases were reported at noon today: 148 new persons were lab-tested verified with covid Saturday in Westchester giving the county 1,379 cases for the week ending November 26, giving this November 5,288 cases compared to last November 2021 total of 4,074. That means covid this November is spreading at 30% more than covid last year at this time (when there was no vaccine!) WPCNR congratulates New York State Covid Tracker faithfully reporting the day by day issuance of covid cases over the Thanksgiving holiday to keep citizens up to date on new cases on the ground.)

With Saturday new cases of covid to be reported today, Westchester County Lab-verified persons testing positive for covid Friday pushed County new cases to 1,231 for the 6 days ended Friday November 26.

The 1,214 cases reported the end of the second week of November infected 1,460 persons through Friday. The rate at which those 1,214 persons spread the disease to 1,460 others was 1 new person with covid two weeks ago passed through personal contact to 2 others.

Persons who came down with the disease in the last two weeks caught it faster (if you caught covid on a weekend, results showed the last two weeks that midweek new positive persons rose Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursdays and for the first time Friday new infections verified by Lab Friday hit 188, for the first time since November 4.

Top Line: The disease is infecting faster, and regenerating strong new infections in the middle of the week. Look at these numbers last week:

Monday the 21st: 237; Tuesday, the 22nd: 289: Wednesday the 23: 220; Thursday the 24: 134; Friday, the 25th: 188.

As people socializing over the last three days interacted over the Thanksgiving holiday in Westchester County it remains to be seen how cases will go up from the trend WPCNR sees now.

Officials are not telling people what is happening. They are not isolating or tracing whom these positives infected that we know of. No hot spots are being addressed.

Westchester and the Mid-Hudson region, Nassau and Suffolk are spreading the disease at a rate of 65% positives of tests lab-verified which is higher than New York City percentage of positives (9.2%) with New York City having 3,755,983 Million people(total population 8,930,002) more than the 9 surrounding counties which have combined population of 5,174,019.

The disease is spreading.

Authorities are unable apparently to create a ratio of how many persons testing positive with antigen self-tests are going to get lab-confirmed tests.

There appears to be significant lag between lab positives and the weekly totals of lab verified tests compared to the percentage rates of positive tests creating a gap (meaning more cases than have been actually lab-verified)

Why do I believe this is the case?

The Westchester rate of daily infections last week based on lab-verified tests reported by the state said Westchester County averaged 19.4 daily cases a week on Friday per 100,000 people. Westchester has 1,004,457 Million persons.

This means each day last week persons last week tested positive, 966 a week, which if the disease spread continues at that rate means 3,864 in a month.

So far in November 2022 we have 4,040 new cases. So we are already there at the 4,000 level a month now.

IF we spread from 1 to 2 persons, this means in one month the week of Christmas we will have 8,100 cases, just 4,000 less than the week before Christmas last year.

Through 6 days of last week we see a 8.3 infection rate on tests which if you extended to higher testing levels, you will see more infections. Does this mean not enough people are using antigen tests or worse, if positive, not reporting them or verifying with a lab?

Westchester has spread previously on a 1 new infected covid person spreading to 1 person. Now in the last two weeks we have seen that go up to 1 infected covid person spreading to 2.. It leads me to believe the spread rate has to be kept in mind.

We have to stay safer folks and only we can do that. Incomplete vaccinations need to be finished.

In New York City there was little masking that I saw. It is important to test yourself. and If positive, do not socialize or hug children, or best stay home.