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WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. From the NYS Dept of Health Covid 19 Tracker (Suspended Temporarily). Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. September 25, 2022 UPDATED 12 NOON EDT WITH THURSDAY INFECTIONS JUST RELEASED AND WHAT THEY MEAN:

WPCNR regrets to report that it cannot report in latest trend in new covid infections for Westchester County. That is because new case numbers have not been reported across the state for 3 days, Thursday Friday and probably Saturday.

After new covid infections in Westchester County rose 43% for the week of September 11 to 17 10 1,468, the State Covid Tracker after a report through Wednesday showed 966 more new infections Sunday,Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. There was no report on Friday for the Thursday positives and no report on Saturday on the Friday infections. We await a resumption in Covid 19 numbers today.

THIS JUST IN: 11:30 a.m. WITH THE FIGURES FOR THURSDAY NEW INFECTIONS IN WESTCHESTER, 197 NEW POSITIVES BRINGING LAST WEEK TOTAL THROUGH THURSDAY TO 1,163. IF LAST WEEK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TOTALS EQUAL THE SEPT 11-17 TOTALS WESTCHESTER WILL TOTAL 1,534 FOR LAST WEEK ENDED YESTERDAY; THAT IS AN INCREASE OF 197 OR 4%.

Westchester County population of 1,004,000 people averaged 212 persons.

The infection rates (lab verified) averaged 7-1/2% of all tested on an average of 3,092 a day being tested, or 229 positives a day through last Thursday 5 days, according to this mornings Covid Tracker Reporter. The 7-1/2% positive rate means the 1,026 persons infected with covid in the week of September 4 to 11 infected 508 persons or 1 person infected 1/2 a person…so far this last week up a tad from when 1,246 infected the Sep 4-11 week infected 1,026 two weeks later.

Of those infected September 4 to 11 or 1 person infected 1/4 of a person–almost even with the Stabilization ratio of 1 infectee infecting 1 other person over two weeks that starts to reduce the growth of the disease. This is why taking care to get vaccinated and not spreading the disease efforts are important to letting the economy the socializations the learning in schools to get better!

At midweek, the Covid 19 Tracker announced that it was suspending daily Covid infection numbers after reporting Wednesday new infections in Westchester as across the state for “Maintenance.”

The 166 infections last Sunday, 256 infections Monday, 309 infections Tuesday and 235 infections Wednesday in Westchester County totaled 966, are on track for 2,000 infections for the week but may diminish Thursday and Friday.

This upshot the first 4 days of last week alone leads this reporter to believe the Thursday Friday Saturday counts would be instructive as to whether like last September when schools resumed and social distancing and remote learning was in place — the pace of infections is critical to see — if with open schools with no social distanced classrooms, self testing only, and optional masking policies whether infections ARE in a surge.

Other than “Maintenance,” no other explanation for suspending covid counts across New York State was given as to why after 2 and ½ years in place the covid tracker needed maintenance, when for those same 2-1/2 years it was the clearest indicator in Westchester and every county where they were in controlling covid-19 and its gang of varients.

The Center for Disease Control believes Westchester is growing, moving its infection rate risk to “Medium.” 

The question is whether the Department of Health is improving their surveillance through their maintenance, drilling down into average days sick, population-clear statements of how many are infected in each county, demographics on children up to 5 getting sick, children 5 to 18, and adults over 18 to 65, and of course seniors, 65 and up. These improvements would go a long way to proving to the population the disease is not as seriously affecting people who get. This kind of reporting should have been done all along.

The new report this morning just issued at 11 A.M. (the earliest I can remember the covid tracker data ever being issued, except when Governor Cuomo was doing his daily updates, does not appear to have changed in the information provided. And the good news is the decline we have seen in the Thursday Friday Saturday figures appear to be stabilized in Westchester but not declining or rising. The lack of consistent decline is a worry.

Now after no consecutive day stoppages, I can remember in 2-1/2 years  the Covid 19 Tracker stops for 3 days?

STOPS when the CDC upgrades Westchester to “medium?”  

STOPS when Nassau and Suffolk Counties,  after averaging 600 new infections a day a week ago ballooned to 1,106 new covid cases last Wednesday and NYC (all five boroughs,) showed 2,314?  

STOPS weekly reports by School and school district of positives in students, teachers, administrators and staff – the one report that showed parents and officials where they stood on controlling the epidemic in our most cherished population…our children?

(That is, except for some delay of perhaps 1-day after 3-day weekends,which were never consistent, and which were never explained or quantified by day in a comprehensive manner in the first daily covid report after the one-day delay, a quibble of mine.)

I look forward to maintenance of the covid tracker, improving the report, and hopefully not simplifying, issuing it in more of a delayed schedule, since we do not know what the maintenance is that needs to be done,it is concerning that the best indicator we have that puts out the facts on covid may put out the facts in a less transparent, more comforting manner and diminishing the real impact this disease continues to have.

Under no  circumstances should the state kill the Covid Tracker report or suspend it. It is obvious that public officials “spin” figures and give the public the impression the disease is not as widespread and we are getting back to normal. Comparisons to the past are made to allay fears of the public. That is nice. But it does not tell persons what is happening in real time. WPCNR does this. It is news that no one wants to hear but they need to know.

Any effort to phase out covid tracking is a tragic mistake.

And in a report not to be believed, on Friday night  in another part of the CDC, new guidance was issued:

Masking is now considered not necessary in 25% of counties without high level of infections in hospitals, nursing homes, and places where medical services are provided

(That is, except for some delay of perhaps 1-day after 3-day weekends,which were never consistent, and which were never explained or quantified by day in a comprehensive manner in the first daily covid report after the one-day delay, a quibble of mine.)

 Now, the CDC says facilities in just over a quarter of counties can “choose not to require” all doctors, patients, and visitors to mask.

“Updates were made to reflect the high levels of vaccine-and infection-induced immunity and the availability of effective treatments and prevention tools,” the CDC said.

Government should not be rooters for a return to normal because it is beneficial to the economy and should not ignore what the covid rise in infections tells them.