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WPCNR CORONAVIRUS REPORT. By John F. Bailey. August 19, 2021:
Westchester is being careful about Covid, even though weary and ready to get back to normal
Since July 4, when the Westchester infection rate of new cases was less than half a percent, 4,663 new positive covid cases have been diagnosed and the infection rate is now at 3.1% based on the New York State Covid Tracker figures of August 17. Yesterday figures are due out late this afternoon.
At the Johns Hopkins spread metric standard that 1 person spreads the disease to 7 people, Westchester infections the last two months have averaged 2.2. infections per new infection, nowhere near 7 PERSONS FOR EVERY PERSON INFECTED.
This responsibility that Westchester residents have shown has helped the county avoid a possible additional 20,000 more victims of covid at this time.
No figures on the actual Westchester infection rate have been released by authorities.
WPCNR analyzed the infections of new covid cases since July 4 when 11 persons tested positive for Covid through August 17 Tuesday when 234 persons tested positive of 7,664 tested, an infection rate of 3.1%. Going back two weeks to August 3, there were 139 new covid infections reported that day.
At the average spread rate of 2.2 persons per person infected, multiplied by 139 you come up with 278 infections as an estimate for August 17, which is 44 cases more than the actual 234. Some infections discovered on Tuesday may have been infected sooner since the disease usually shows symptoms within 10 to 14 days.
Go back to August 3 and we have 139 new covid positives of 6,448 tested, an infection rate of 2.2% not to be confused with my finding of an average 2.2% Westchester Spread Rate I have discovered. Two weeks prior on July 20, 56 persons tested Covid positive of 4,082 tested..
Multiply 2.2 (average Westchester Spread Rate) persons by 56 and you get 123 possible covid infections on August 3 two weeks later when you actually tested and found 139, just a little more. I attribute this to possible more or less people getting infected earlier than the arbitrary 2 week spread date-to-date
Take July 20. If you go back two weeks to July 6, when only 15 persons were found positive, and you multiply 15 x 2.2 you get 33 infections on July 20, 23 less than the 56. Still there was a faster spread from July 4 due to the mixing and mingling over July 4 weekend, which means more people got infected earlier.
To be sure not every person is getting infected on a strict timetable.
But, the ability of residents of Westchester who have covid to not spread the disease once they are infected is very positive and contributes to Westchester, though still experiencing a third wave crest or ebb or surge,( we do not know yet), is a tribute to intelligence and concern.
In the last five days, there is no evidence the third Covid wave in Westchester is not surging.
Friday, the 13th: 187 new infections in 7,630 tests. This number is right on the 2.2% Westchester Average Spread rate of 2.2. On July 23, two weeks prior 85 were found positive and 2.2 persons times 85 is 86. Right on the Average Infection Rate.
Saturday, the 14th, 208 persons tested for covid of 7,241 (infection rate 2.9%). Two weeks prior on July 31 , 137 tested positive, and the 2.2 average overestimates predicting 301 infections 93 over short of the actual 208 July 31 figure. The actual spread rate was 1.5 persons per person infected. I take this to mean that Westchester residents are being more careful with social distancing as figures of positive go consistently closer to the 200 mark.
Sunday the 15th, Westchester reported 146 new cases( a 2.9% infection rate). On August 1, we had 96 infections. Apply the 2.2 infection rate times 96 , you get 211 for Sunday the 15th. The Spread rate from August first declined again to 1.5% per infection on August 1st
The 16th, of August, (Monday) another 189 infections of 4,968 tested. The 2.2 average produces 323 for Monday, based on August 2, but over actual infections by 134. The actual person to person spread from the infections of Monday August 2nd was 1.3% of the infections on August 2.
What do we make of this decline in persons infected with the disease spreading? Better behavior perhaps? More caution? More persons vaccinating?
Now this is a trend noticed by simply applying earlier infections and the effect of those infections over two weeks. The spread rate based on infections two weeks prior is on the balance dropping in the last 7 days below the 2.2 average Spread Rate.
August 10 –New infection spread rate from persons infected 2 weeks prior — 2.6 per person
August 11– 1.76
August 12—1.4
August 13 —1.2
August 14—-1.5
August 15—-1.5
August 16—1.3
August 17–1.7