WPCNR CAMPAIGN 2021 By Stephen Rolandi January 2, 2020:
Stephen Rolandi analyzed the Presidential Election for WPCNR predicting a Joseph Biden victory. Mr. Rolandi’s views of the Georgia Primary runoff Monday are solely his own opinions and do not reflect the views of his employers, Pace University and City University of New York.
Georgia will hold run-off elections on Tuesday, January 5, 2021 to determine not only who will represent Georgia in the next session of the United States Senate – but also which party will control the Senate. The run-off elections are required as no candidate secured the required 50% majority in November. The candidates are:
- REGULAR 6 YEAR TERM:
David Perdue* (R) Jon Ossoff (D)
- SPECIAL 2 YEAR TERM:
Kelly Loeffler** (R) Raphael Warnock (D)
Here’s how I see these races:
- For many years, Georgia was a very reliable “red” state. Since 2012, the Republican party’s statewide margins have been declining – Mitt Romney received 53% of Georgia’s vote in 2012; Donald Trump 51% in 2016; and Joe Biden (D) narrowly defeated Trump by 12,000 votes (49.5% to 49.2%);
- Similarly, in the Governor’s races, the GOP margins have been declining – the GOP won nearly 53% in 2014; Brian Kemp defeated Stacey Abrams by 55,000 votes in 2018 (50.2% to 48.8%);
- Turnout has been steadily rising statewide – 2.6 million in the 2014 Governor’s race; 4.1 million in the 2016 Presidential race; about the same in 2018; and 5 million in 2020 (Presidential);
- I expect turnout to exceed the 5 million; indeed, as of December 31st, over 3 million early votes have already been cast; approximately 79,000 new voters – mostly African- American – registered to vote since November 3rd.
- President Trump’s largely baseless claims about a fraudulent election in Georgia have undermined GOP efforts there.
- If a “stand alone” stimulus bill is not passed by Congress, this is likely to hurt the GOP, although Perdue and Loeffler have come out for the bill.
So, here’s my call:
– WARNOCK (D) wins 51.5%; Loeffler 48.5%
– PERDUE (R) wins 50.3% to Ossoff’s 49.7%
Perdue will run well in Northern Georgia to offset Ossoff’s strength in the metro Atlanta area. Some see Sen. Perdue as more moderate than Trump. Warnick should benefit from a heavy African-American vote. I expect a re-count, particularly in the Perdue-Ossoff race.
GOP will retain its majority in the Senate (51-49). Mitch McConnell remains as Majority Leader. Charles Schumer remains as Minority Leader , both for 2021-23.
Stephen R. Rolandi, MPA