WPCNR Drops Weather as Unreliable.
WPCNR WEATHER OR NOT. News & Comment by John F. Bailey. June 26, 2023:
Has anyone noticed that weather forecasts for the Northeast have been notoriously wrong consistently lately for months?
Weather weeks supposed to be all rainy have not turned out that way.
7 Day forecasts are total guesswork.
24 hour forecasts fail to take into account the meandering forces driving cold and warm fronts expected and the alarming intensity of the jet stream to alter direction of the fronts.
Zeroing in on weather can only be loosely forecast by taking a look at the radar West Coast to East Coast snapshots that may have direction and intensity dissipated turning heavy rains into maybe rains and no precipitation at all.
It’s dartboard weather.
This unpredictability affects airline schedules. Recently on a flight to Memphis predicted to be smooth once the aircraft approach Memphis airspace. But servere thunderstorm cells developed within an hour of Memphis. The attempted first landing had to be aborted with a harrowing sharp acceleration and Steve Canyon sharp turn and climb to the left due to a strong crosswind.
Yet we religiously listen to traffic and weather together on the 8’s or on the 1’s on AM radio, or sit through 3 or four weather segments on TV.
WPCNR after another dismally incorrect weekend forecast by the National Weather Service as well as local weather meteorologists, I have decided to drop daily weather forecasts at the start of each day.
My doing so was to provide a cue to the following day but after this weekend’s weather inaccuracies, I have decided weather is just too capricious to predict with timings and advisories.
There are three reasons for my cancelling the weather.
- They are consistently inaccurate.
- They create unnecessary worry, disappointment on the part of readers who act and plan on the weather and if it is wrong plans are cancelled unnecessarily.
- The best way to predict the weather is look out the window.
Bear these possibilities in mind:
Humid and in the 80s chance of thunderstorms late in the day or not at all. In the 80s low humidity, The beach or the cookout is possible to squeeze in. And if you have tickets to a Yankee or Met game, always go to the ballpark because they rarely cancel a game.
Weather has become “Infotainment,” like the newscasts themselves. Weather gives you “real feel,” “gusty winds”, “dangerous weather” “Heat indexes” “Drink water” it is sensationalized. Back in the age of The Original Weather Channel the dire forecasts were easier to take, but now it is a lot more sensational, Even fair hot weather is treated as a threat
I am contemplating a different way to handle the weather, but for now I am not going to add to the worry and anxiety of the news that matters.
I hope this is not a disappointment to you.
To eliminate your wondering about the weather I suggest walking out at dawn and seeing the sun, and clouds if any and judging the temperature. If it is 70 at dawn you will hit the 80s on a typical clear summer day. Mix of sun and clouds…those clouds could bring thunderstorms.
Winds from the south could bring humid air in later in the day. Winds from the West and North North West are clearing winds. Winds from the East bring possibility of rain.
Overcast and humid, be aware of thunderstorm possibility towards late in the day. Since you have to leave for the beach early to even get there in a reasonable time. You go, enjoy the early part of the day before the sun index burns you…then leave to beat the rush hour.
I f you boat you need to listen to the Marine Forecast for the “chop” a foot or more on Long Island Sound is not good for small boats at all. 2 Feet chop, cabin cruisers have a rough ride. Sailboat enthusiasts, be wary with winds over 10 knots. But you are more of a judge of that than I.
Swimmers need to be wary of water temperatures. The Long Island Sound and the south shore of Long Island are unusually cold in temperature this June and the beaches have hotlines I believe.
Nature has natural warnings. First time you hear thunder, see shelter or suspend the barbecue.
