COUNTY ADVISORY ON THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES SMOKE SITUATION COMING OUR WAY

en Español

The Westchester County Health Department is closely monitoring the situation regarding the anticipated influx Wednesday, June 28 of fine particulate matter resulting from the Canadian wildfires in Quebec. We advise all residents to stay informed and take necessary precautions in response to potential changes in air quality.

If the air quality decreases it is recommended that residents close their windows, operate their air conditioners, reduce strenuous outdoor activities and that all residents, particularly vulnerable individuals such as young children, pregnant women, and those with respiratory conditions or heart disease, limit their time outdoors.

The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation and the New York State Department of Health issue Air Quality Health Advisories when DEC meteorologists predict levels of pollution, either ozone or fine particulate matter, are expected to exceed an Air Quality Index (AQI) value of 100. To remain updated on the air quality index, monitor the DEC website for air quality index updates.

Exposure can cause short-term health effects, such as irritation to the eyes, nose and throat, coughing, sneezing, runny nose and shortness of breath. Additional information is available on DEC and on DOH websites.

Stay tuned for further updates and adhere to the recommended precautions to minimize exposure to poor air quality.


en Español

El Departamento de Salud del Condado de Westchester está monitoreando muy cerca la situación con respecto a la afluencia anticipada el miércoles, 28 de junio de partículas finas resultantes de los incendios forestales canadienses en Quebec. Aconsejamos a todos los residentes que se mantengan informados y tomen las precauciones necesarias en respuesta a posibles cambios en la calidad del aire.

Si la calidad del aire disminuye, se recomienda que los residentes cierren sus ventanas, operen sus acondicionadores de aire, reduzcan las actividades extenuantes al aire libre y que todos los residentes, especialmente las personas vulnerables como los niños pequeños, las mujeres embarazadas y las personas con afecciones respiratorias o cardíacas, limiten su tiempo al aire libre.

El Departamento de Conservación Ambiental del Estado de Nueva York y el Departamento de Salud del Estado de Nueva York emiten Avisos de Salud sobre la Calidad del Aire cuando los meteorólogos del DEC predicen niveles de contaminación, ya sea ozono o partículas finas, que se espera superen un valor del Índice de Calidad del Aire (Air Quality Index (AQI) de 100. Para mantenerse actualizado sobre el índice de calidad del aire, controle el sitio web del DEC para conocer las actualizaciones del índice de calidad del aire.

La exposición puede causar efectos en la salud a corto plazo, como irritación de los ojos, la nariz y la garganta, tos, estornudos, secreción nasal y dificultad para respirar. Hay información adicional disponible en los sitios web del DEC y del DOH.

Estén atentos para más actualizaciones y sigan las precauciones recomendadas para minimizar la exposición a la mala calidad del aire.

Posted in Uncategorized

Harassment Against Scientists Out of Control YOUR LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGIST REPORTS

Last week Peter Hotez experienced pile-ons, stalking, and bullying after events unfolded on Twitter. So much so that law enforcement got involved. A complete nightmare.

He’s not alone. These nightmares are now a common occurrence for scientists and physicians in public health. Both online and offline. For vaccines. For gun violence. For reproductive health. And apparently for wildfires now, too.

It’s gotten out of control, which becomes an individual risk as well as a risk to the communities we serve.

Hotez’s experience is not uncommon

Many scientists and physicians have similar stories. Harassed at coffee shops. Death threats, doxxing (private information had been shared), hacking, and getting sued. Hand-written letters in the mail. Emails pointing gun barrels at them. Heads added to fake pornographic pictures. Heckled after leaving work. Needing full-time security details. Moving states to escape threats.

I have experienced almost all of these in three short years. Others have too. We don’t just hear each others stories; we see it in the numbers, too. A recent study surveyed 350 scientists about social media commentary:

  • 2 out of 3 scientists reported harassment related to comments made about the COVID-19 pandemic
  • 1 in 5 reported doxxing

Another study in Nature asked scientists what types of harassment they experienced. Fifteen percent reported death threats.

While these surveys do have a potential for bias—those who experience harassment are more likely to fill out a survey—different data angles show a consistent story:

  • Before the pandemic, harassment against scientists wasn’t nearly as high
  • Compared to the general public, the rate of harassment against scientists is higher
  • Scientists posting public health messages on social media were more likely to receive online harassment than those who don’t
  • Of course, harassment isn’t new to other scientists, like climate experts

Women scientists are particularly at risk

Watching gender differences unfold has been particularly jarring, particularly as a woman scientist. Women experience harassment differently:

  • 1 in 3 report being sexually harassed online, more than their male counterparts
  • Targeted for harassment because they are female
  • Women report more emotional stress related to the threats than men

This is a huge problem

Scientific communication, combatting misinformation, and bringing scientific dialogue to social media is dependent on volunteers. Because of this, too often scientists assume the consequences alone. This takes a significant personal toll.

After a while, this risk is just not worth it.

Scientists reach a tipping point—whether it be a health event, a threat becoming too real, or just exhaustion. When they stop interacting, the gap between science and community only grows wider allowing misinformation and disinformation to fill the void.

This takes a toll on communities.

The tipping point has already been reached for many. Axios, for example, reported that scientists are leaving Twitter in droves.

In another survey, scientists who reported higher frequencies of trolling or personal attacks were most likely to say that their experiences had greatly affected their willingness to speak about science in the future in media interviews.

Public health is inherently political.

And, it’s “public,” meaning it requires buy-in from the public. It needs to be a bi-directional conversation with the public.

Rapid, widely accessible scientific dialogue was a life saver during the pandemic: scientists talking to each other, to the community, to media. Scientists listening to the community. We need this in the future, especially if we don’t fix root causes of mis- and disinformation. A conversation can include disagreement, but this means civilized conversations rather than pile-ons and ridiculousness.

Bottom line

We need scientists to speak more than ever. We need communities to join the scientific conversation. At the same time, we need threats to be clearly and unanimously rejected.

Denounced by our communities, but also denounced by institutions through action. If not, more and more will wonder: is the juice worth the squeeze?

Love, YLE


“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist. During the day she is a senior scientific consultant to a number of organizations. At night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health world so that people will be well equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below:

 

Posted in Uncategorized

COVID CONSOLIDATING, ADDING CASES IN JUNE

COVID NEW CASES IN WESTCHESTER RISE TO 194 JUNE 18-24.

COVID NEW POSITIVES BASED ON COUNTY POPULATION REACHES 839 NEW CASES IN 3 WEEKS OF JUNE

COULD REACH  871 THIS WEEK AS JUNE ENDS  WITH POSSIBLE 1,710 NEW CASES

 1,710  TOTAL CASES FOR MONTH OF JUNE (25% OF LAST JUNE) 

WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. From the NY State Covid 19 Tracker. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. June 27, 2023:

The most significant covid number provided each week on the New York State covid tracker is new daily case per 100,000 population in Westchester County. You have to interpret it to know covid true spread.

For the 7 days June 18-24, the daily cases per day were 3.1 for covid in “covid confident” Westchester County.

However to get the total new covid cases you have to multiply that 3.1 by 10.04 segments of 100,000 population (Westchester has 1,004,000 population).

The choosing by the state to report a fraction of new daily cases gives a false sense of safety across the county that covid is in decline.

It is not.

In the first three weeks of June Westchester has reported  315, 174 and 156 new daily cases lab tested positives, which in my opinion vastly undercuts the gathering momentum the  pandemic that is “over,” “behind us” and “no longer a threat.”

The math indicates covid is consolidating and  growing in the county at a rate  871 cases a week.Rapidly approaching a thousand cases a week again.

In the 7 days ended last Saturday the daily average of new covid cases in Our Westchester was 3.1 per 100,000 population, at 10.4 times 3.1 this means instead of 3.1 new cases a day Westchester was actually experiencing 31 new cases a day countywide, a total of 217 new cases countywide last week.

Another week of 217 cases this week will mean if that 3.1 average continues will raise June covid cases to 1,702 . That total  is  7.000 less than the 9,642 new cases last June when all daily cases were reported by the Tracker.

Covid  is growing because of the apparent reluctance of persons testing positive with an antigen home test, not getting lab tests to verify. I call these victims of covid “Invisible Positives.”

Various motives for not testing to see if you really have covid  can be attributed to thinking they do not need to test because covid is now curable with medications readily available; not wanting to have to report they are positive to work; fear they will lose their jobs.

I tell you if I tested positive with an antigen test and did not have symptoms I would want to know if I was a carrier of the plague in my breath to others.

What does this obvious  unclear reporting of  actual total new cases by the state mean?

July is a month of risk.

Two weeks ago  in Westchester, the daily case rate was 2.2 per 100,000 this week just completed the daily case rate is 3.1.

More cases are happening each day (lab tested) now than two weeks ago.  The growth rate of new cases creating new cases of  156 two weeks previous went up to 194 last week. The Spread rate has  1 new case spreading the disease to  1.24 persons.

Westchester new cases (lab verifed only) in  a week spread it to 194 persons, 38 more or 25%.  This week those 871 people will spread it to 148 more persons at that 7 day growth rate.  Westchester has  exceeded the containment threshold of 1 persons spreading it to just 1 person.  Covid has shifted gears into its all-too-well-known spreading mode.

If we keep the number cases at the 3.1 daily 7 day average this means we will do over 217 next week with a 1 person spreading it to 1.25 persons we will have 270 infections with possibly a lot more than that given the flurry of mass-attended  events July 1 to 8.

This is not the time to ignore getting your complete series of vaccinations and certainly very important to get your 6th shot the booster.

Mixing mingling with crowds and outings in July, resulted in over 10,298 new cases. Vaccinated populations halted that in August.

However, the “Invisible Positives”  rate – the number of persons carriers of covid who are not identified,  not testing to confirm they are positive are a threat to expand covid ability to infect.  Perhaps, 1,085 people in the first week in July if you multiply the June infections this week  by 1.25 ( 194 x 1.25 is 425) plus whatever the real number of the impossible to know number Invisible Positives is).

If the new cases last week spread a 1 to 4 persons that 194 goes up to spreading to 659 during the week of the first of July. Say it stays at that despite travel and recreation celebrations, beach exposure, pool exposure, concerts in towns.

The worrisome number of infections a week gives you 2,500 to 3,000 infections in July.

But unless more persons without complete series plus booster get them. The vaccinations will not save us from the infections in August.

Without vaccination diligence on the part of those not fully vaccinated, you can expect not a decline of covid in August but as yet an  unpredictable increase.

Another factor that will contribute to more cases more often  is covid is feasting on the weekends.

After the weekends in June, new cases have strengthened by midweek, meaning that weekend activities  that persons attend are spreading awareness that  “Hey I might have it (covid)” and they go to  lab test and they are tested positive.

What does that tell me?

Last week June 18 to 24, On Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday we had 117 new covid cases (30, 52 and 35)

The week before June 11 to 17, Westchester experienced 36,23, 21 on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday for a total of  80. Infections of covid in the midweek then doubled last week to 117..

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