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COVID NEW CASES IN WESTCHESTER RISE TO 194 JUNE 18-24.
COVID NEW POSITIVES BASED ON COUNTY POPULATION REACHES 839 NEW CASES IN 3 WEEKS OF JUNE
COULD REACH 871 THIS WEEK AS JUNE ENDS WITH POSSIBLE 1,710 NEW CASES
1,710 TOTAL CASES FOR MONTH OF JUNE (25% OF LAST JUNE)
WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. From the NY State Covid 19 Tracker. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. June 27, 2023:
The most significant covid number provided each week on the New York State covid tracker is new daily case per 100,000 population in Westchester County. You have to interpret it to know covid true spread.
For the 7 days June 18-24, the daily cases per day were 3.1 for covid in “covid confident” Westchester County.
However to get the total new covid cases you have to multiply that 3.1 by 10.04 segments of 100,000 population (Westchester has 1,004,000 population).
The choosing by the state to report a fraction of new daily cases gives a false sense of safety across the county that covid is in decline.
It is not.
In the first three weeks of June Westchester has reported 315, 174 and 156 new daily cases lab tested positives, which in my opinion vastly undercuts the gathering momentum the pandemic that is “over,” “behind us” and “no longer a threat.”
The math indicates covid is consolidating and growing in the county at a rate 871 cases a week.Rapidly approaching a thousand cases a week again.
In the 7 days ended last Saturday the daily average of new covid cases in Our Westchester was 3.1 per 100,000 population, at 10.4 times 3.1 this means instead of 3.1 new cases a day Westchester was actually experiencing 31 new cases a day countywide, a total of 217 new cases countywide last week.
Another week of 217 cases this week will mean if that 3.1 average continues will raise June covid cases to 1,702 . That total is 7.000 less than the 9,642 new cases last June when all daily cases were reported by the Tracker.
Covid is growing because of the apparent reluctance of persons testing positive with an antigen home test, not getting lab tests to verify. I call these victims of covid “Invisible Positives.”
Various motives for not testing to see if you really have covid can be attributed to thinking they do not need to test because covid is now curable with medications readily available; not wanting to have to report they are positive to work; fear they will lose their jobs.
I tell you if I tested positive with an antigen test and did not have symptoms I would want to know if I was a carrier of the plague in my breath to others.
What does this obvious unclear reporting of actual total new cases by the state mean?
July is a month of risk.
Two weeks ago in Westchester, the daily case rate was 2.2 per 100,000 this week just completed the daily case rate is 3.1.
More cases are happening each day (lab tested) now than two weeks ago. The growth rate of new cases creating new cases of 156 two weeks previous went up to 194 last week. The Spread rate has 1 new case spreading the disease to 1.24 persons.
Westchester new cases (lab verifed only) in a week spread it to 194 persons, 38 more or 25%. This week those 871 people will spread it to 148 more persons at that 7 day growth rate. Westchester has exceeded the containment threshold of 1 persons spreading it to just 1 person. Covid has shifted gears into its all-too-well-known spreading mode.
If we keep the number cases at the 3.1 daily 7 day average this means we will do over 217 next week with a 1 person spreading it to 1.25 persons we will have 270 infections with possibly a lot more than that given the flurry of mass-attended events July 1 to 8.
This is not the time to ignore getting your complete series of vaccinations and certainly very important to get your 6th shot the booster.
Mixing mingling with crowds and outings in July, resulted in over 10,298 new cases. Vaccinated populations halted that in August.
However, the “Invisible Positives” rate – the number of persons carriers of covid who are not identified, not testing to confirm they are positive are a threat to expand covid ability to infect. Perhaps, 1,085 people in the first week in July if you multiply the June infections this week by 1.25 ( 194 x 1.25 is 425) plus whatever the real number of the impossible to know number Invisible Positives is).
If the new cases last week spread a 1 to 4 persons that 194 goes up to spreading to 659 during the week of the first of July. Say it stays at that despite travel and recreation celebrations, beach exposure, pool exposure, concerts in towns.
The worrisome number of infections a week gives you 2,500 to 3,000 infections in July.
But unless more persons without complete series plus booster get them. The vaccinations will not save us from the infections in August.
Without vaccination diligence on the part of those not fully vaccinated, you can expect not a decline of covid in August but as yet an unpredictable increase.
Another factor that will contribute to more cases more often is covid is feasting on the weekends.
After the weekends in June, new cases have strengthened by midweek, meaning that weekend activities that persons attend are spreading awareness that “Hey I might have it (covid)” and they go to lab test and they are tested positive.
What does that tell me?
Last week June 18 to 24, On Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday we had 117 new covid cases (30, 52 and 35)
The week before June 11 to 17, Westchester experienced 36,23, 21 on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday for a total of 80. Infections of covid in the midweek then doubled last week to 117..