Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. North wind around 8 mph.
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Thursday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
WPCNR BULLETIN By John F. Bailey. July 27, 2021:
The New York State Covid Tracker reports Westchester County covid positive rate doubled from 1.1% of those tested on Monday, July 19 through yesterday July 27 to 2.3% in a week, with low testing universes.
COUNTY ON PACE TO DOUBLE INFECTIONS IN 2 WEEKS. 68 AVERAGE NEW INFECTIONS A DAY –547 NEW CASES IN WESTCHESTER IN 7 DAYS.
The county averaged 68 new persons testing positive each day for a total of 547 8 days. from July 19 through July 26 (yesterday).
This means that each of those 547 persons infected in the last 7 days could spread the disease to 4,923 persons in two weeks creating a continuing third wave of infections that unless authorities act now to stop the behaviors that are contributing to this steady growth in infections.
This spread is related to the false sense of relief and feeling it is safe to mix and mingle, beach party, party indoors and out and of course, the reluctance of 20% of residents who refuse to get the vaccination, but we do not know that number of persons unvaccinated. We do not know if many persons scheduled for second shots are not getting them.
The Delta Corona Varient is also being blamed for this.
Why aren’t the authorities publishing the Delta Varient split between Delta and regular Covid? This would prove that the varient is the culprit in the rise and also prove the vaccine boosters have to allow for not only Delta varient but also the Lambda Varient.
Why aren’t the authorities publishing how many persons with 2-shots of the vaccine have gotten covid or the Delta Varient?
Why aren’t the authorities publishing how many persons with 1-shot of the vaccine have come down with covid or the Delta varient? They have to know those numbers.
But the main cause is that July 4 weekend because that is what the positive infection rate shows.
On July 3 the infection positive rate in Westchester was–fasten your seatbelt– .004% that is less than half a percent positive, 15 people of 3,588 tested were positive.
On July 9, one week later, 34 of 4,063 tested positive, raising the infection rate to .009 –just about 1%–nothing to worry about according to Johns Hopkins University Covid spread model. It was on July 10 at that point that cases started to rise each day: 33,37,32,51, 47, to 51 of 4,652 testing positive on July 16 for a Covid positive pace of 1.1% Still a positive rate where the disease does not grow
On July 23 , two weeks after the start of the 3 day July 4 holiday 5,366 were tested, 86 tested positive–and the positive rate was 1.6%. The corona virus Third Wave was now spreading at faster than it could be contained. The 14 days until positives broke past containment, parallel the infection period coronavirus takes to show symptoms. The daily numbers from the 16th to the 23rd of July are chilling: 51, 55, 34,51,56,63,76, and the high of 85 on the 23rd are chilling.
Authorities need to test higher quantities of people in the county to see if the low number of tests, averaging approximately 3 to 4,000 a day, are giving us a false reading of how many people could have covid in the county. However, even if the positive rate drops, because your covid positives drop as a percentage the actual new positives may be higher in number than than the new positives from the smaller universes. I worry about that.
What can Westchester due to stop it?
Authorities are considering social distancing, back to masks, back to lowering parties and get-togethers, but without answers on who is getting sick from the county and the state, you cannot tell with certainty what to do.
Vaccines should be made mandatory and persons not willing to get the vaccine confined to their homes, That will bring down the new spread. Performance venues, restaurants, bars should require proof of vaccine for all who wish to enter. Sporting events on the school level should require testing of all athletes.
School Districts should be very adamant to get meaningful facts from the county and the state on the issues I have raised in this column and look very carefully at their infection rates last school year when they were on hybrid models.
School Districts should demand that all eligible for vaccines among students should get the vaccine.
Vaccines are getting bad irresponsible press. The fact is as Governor Cuomo said Monday, the fact that vaccines work is irrefutable. The vaccine stopped the Second Wave and brought us so close to beating covid.
If the wave exhausts itself over the next 5 days with 557 new cases in the last 7 days with each having possibly infected 10 persons through contacts who spread the disease exploding the epidemic again. The spread they could cause over 5,000 infections. Because a 2.3% infection rate means one person infects about 6 persons and if two persons if you have 2.3% infection rate two persons can infect 10 to 12 persons and those 12 persons can spread it to 12 more and so the infections grow rapidly.
The effect as Governor Cuomo explained in March of 2020, the key to controlling the disease is to keep the infection rate down to 1.1% When the rate rose over 2% New York was doubling the new cases of covid in two days.
On the last day of June by contrast, Westchester was had positive infection rates of under .005% for a month.
In May, after the April stoppage of Covid thanks in part to introduction of vaccines in April, the infection rate reduced to 1% infection rate the first week in May and stayed there for two weeks when it dropped to .007% on May 13. It stayed there until the “Anything Goes” July 4 weekend.
We were so close to beating covid.
We believed it was over or wanted so desperately to think it was over
We had the vaccine and we did not all get it.
We were so eager to believe it was over.
We were so eager to party and see each other again.
We listened to wishful thinking.
We listened to powerful interests
We believed them.
We wanted to.
It is another Ernest Hemingway moment to remember immortalized in the unforettable last words of The Sun Also Rises
Brett the glamorous heroine says to the correspondent, Jake Barnes:
The day is hot and bright. As they pass a policeman directing traffic and raising a red baton, Brett laments that if only things were different “we could have had such a damned good time together.” Jake replies,
“Isn’t it pretty to think so?”
Now you and I have to stop it again.
” GOOD MORNING FROM WHITE PLAINS NEW YORK USA. YESTERDAY THE NUMBER OF NEW CASES OF COVID IN WHITE PLAINS WAS 42 OVER 2 WEEKS.
ON SUNDAY DENNIS THE DAILY INFECTION RATE FOR WESTCHESTER COUNTY HIT 1.9% THE LAST TIME THIS LEVEL OF INFECTIONS OCCURRED WAS IN THE THIRD WEEK OF APRIL, WHEN THE INFECTIONS WERE SUBSIDING. FROM APRIL 23, 24,25,26, THE INFECTION RATE WAS 2.0%, 1.5%, 2.3% AND 1.9%. SINCE APRIL 26 THE INFECTION HAS BEEN WELL BELOW THAT FOR 10 WEEKS.
NOW IN JUST 3 WEEKS IT IS UP THERE IN SERIOUS SPREAD ZONE. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
SINCE JULY 5 THERE HAVE BEEN 845 NEW CASES OF COVID, UP 337 FROM 508 IN JUNE., BUT LESS THAN THE 1,582 COVID INFECTIONS IN MAY AND A FAR CRY FROM THE 6,092 COVID INFECTIONS IN APRIL.
A REPRODUCTION NUMBER OF 1 WILL SEE A DISEASE STAY STEADY OVER TIME IN A POPULATION. A REPRODUCTION NUMBER GREATER THAN 1 WILL SEE A DISEASE WILL INCREASE OVER TIME. AND A REPRODUCTION NUMBER OF LESS THAN ONE WILL SEE A DISEASE WANE OVER TIME.
AN R0 LARGER THAN 1 MEANS EACH SICK PERSON INFECTS AT LEAST ONE OTHER PERSON ON AVERAGE, WHO THEN COULD INFECT OTHERS, UNTIL THE DISEASE SPREADS THROUGH THE POPULATION.
FOR INSTANCE, A TYPICAL SEASONAL FLU STRAIN HAS AN R0 OF AROUND 1.2, WHICH MEANS FOR EVERY FIVE INFECTED PEOPLE, THE DISEASE WILL SPREAD TO SIX NEW PEOPLE ON AVERAGE, WHO PASS IT ALONG TO OTHERS.
UNLESS WESTCHESTER CHANGES ITS WAYS AND GETS THE 1.9 RATE OF SUNDAY IN RETREAT WITH LESS POSITIVES, THIS MEANS THAT THOSE 68 PEOPLE TESTING POSITIVE SUNDAY WILL INFECT 9 OTHER PEOPLE IN 14 DAYS OR OVER 600 PEOPLE. WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 845 NEW CASES OF COVID THE LAST 3 WEEKS.
THIS IS WHY GETTING VACCINATED IS ESSENTIAL TO STOP THIS THIRD WAVE.
REMEMBER WHEN WE WERE AS LOW AS HALF A PERCENTAGE POINT OF INFECTIONS THREE WEEKS AGO. WELL WE HAVE BEEN STEADILY GOING UP NOW WE ARE IN A SERIOUS SPREAD ZONE.
IF YOU ARE NOT VACCINATED YOU HAVE TO BE AWARE THAT YOU ARE SERIOUSLY AT RISK IF THIS DOUBLING EVERY 2 DAYS WHICH IS WHAT NEW YORK WAS EXPERIENCING IN MID MARCH OF 2020 WHEN THE FIRST WAVE BEGAN HAS A SEQUEL WE DEFINITELY DO NOT WANT TO SEE.
THIS FRIDAY IN WHITE PLAINS SHOTS REQUIRED OF CHILDREN TO ENTER SCHOOL THIS FALL WILL BE ADMINISTERED AT THE WHITE PLAINS DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH ON COURT STREET—YOU CAN CALL 914-945-5800 TO MAKE AN APPOINTMENT FOR YOUR CHILDREN.
IF YOU HAD THE MISFORTUNE TO BE CHARGED WITH FELONY OR MISDEMEANOR MARIJUANA VIOLATIONS, DISTRICT ATTORNEY MIRIAM ROCAH YESTERDAY ANNOUNCED SHE WOULD ELIMINATE THOSE CHARGES INVOLVING 184 INDIVIDUALS AND THAT HER OFFICE WOULD NOT PROSECUTE NEW CHARGES FROM NOW ON IN THE COUNTY. IN HER NEWS RELEASE PUT OUT THAT “REFORM IS LONG OVERDUE FROM THE STATE AND SHE WAS ACTING ON AUTHORITY GRANTED HER BY THE COURTS. SHE SAID ARRESTS OF PEOPLE OF COLOR RAN 3 OF EVERY 4 ARRESTS ON MARIJUANA VIOLATIONS.
DENNIS: DID YOU HEAR THE MAMARONECK AND POST ROAD BUILDING WAS BEGINNING CONSTRUCTION?
JOHN: “NO, I CALLED LENNAR TO ASK IF THEY HAD HIRED A NEW CONTRACTOR BUT THEIR SPOKESMAN SAID NO COMMENT. HAVE THEY RESUMED WITH THE OLD CONTRACTOR?
DENNIS: “I DO NOT KNOW.”
(MR. BAILEY NOTES AFTER THE BROADCAST:
(WPCNR NOTES GREG BELEW DIVISION PRESIDENT OF LENNAR MC, ANNOUNCED FRIDAY AFTER WPCNR HAD BEEN TOLD NO COMMENT BY A LENNAR SPOKESMAN THAT LMC HAS HIRED A NEW CONTRACTOR TO BEGIN THIS WEEK, BUT DECLINED TO NAME THE CONTRACTOR BECAUSE NO DETAILS HAD BEEN FINALIZED THE CONTRACTOR WHOEVER IT IS HAS TO COMPLETE THE FACADE ON HALF THE BUILDING AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE ALL INTERIORS. THE PROJECT HAS HAD NO WORK DONE ON IT SINCE APRIL.)
THE TALK OF THE COUNTY LAST WEEK WAS NOT EXITING COVID, BUT NEW EXIT NUMBERS ON THE HUTCHINSON RIVER PARKWAY. THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION OF NEW YORK STATE UNDER DARKNESS LIKE THE BALTIMORE COLTS WHEN THEY MOVED OUT OF BALTIMORE STARTED RENUMBERING EXIT SIGNS ON THE HUTCH. NO ONE IN THE COUNTY KNEW, MR. BOYKIN FOUND OUT.
WHITE PLAINS COUNTY LEGISLATOR BENJAMIN BOYKIN DRIVING THE WEEKEND BEFORE THIS NOTICED THE NEW EXIT NUMBERS HAD CHANGED AND IT CONFUSED HIM.
ON LAST MONDAY HE ASKED THE COUNTY ABOUT IT. HE DISCOVERED THE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAD NOT BEEN INFORMED BY THE NEW YORK DOT ABOUT THE INSTALLATION, AND NEITHER WERE THE COUNTY POLICE NOR THE COUNTY EXECUTIVE.
THE STATE JUST DID IT; YOU CANNOT MAKE THIS STUFF UP. ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF A STATE AGENCY NOT CONSULTING COUNTIES, CITIES AND TOWNS ON THEIR IVORY TOWER PLANS. THE COUNTY HAD NO OFFICIAL STATEMENT, NO PHONE CALLS TO THE STATE, NO OUTRAGE ABOUT BEING BYPASSED.”
WPCNR POLICE GAZETTE. Special to WPCNR From the Office of the Westchester County District Attorney. July 25, 2021:
Miriam E. Rocah announced Monday that the courts have granted her petition to dismiss all marijuana cases involving felony and misdemeanor charges of marijuana possession or sale.
“Dismissing all marijuana cases, including underlying bench warrants, has been a priority of mine, and the legislature’s repeal of Article 221 was long overdue. The decriminalization of marijuana possession is critical given the discriminatory way marijuana laws have been used to incarcerate people of color.” DA Rocah said.
“While Black and white Americans used marijuana at similar rates, people of color are much more likely to be arrested than white Americans for marijuana possession. Our office is committed to reducing this disparity and the dismissal of these cases is an important step.”
Despite roughly equal usage rates, Black people are 3.73 times more likely than white people to be arrested for marijuana.
“The decriminalization of low-level marijuana related offenses will prevent people from getting unnecessarily involved with the criminal justice system,” Rocah said. “Having to disclose an arrest and record can impact many facets of their life, including limiting employment and housing opportunities.”
A total of 184 cases have been dismissed by the Westchester District Attorney’s Office.
The DA’s Office will not go forward with prosecuting future violations or misdemeanors. In local court, prosecutors will continue to identify warrants for standalone marijuana charges that would no longer be prosecutable and will calendar these cases, recall the warrants and dismiss the charges.