WPCNR BULLETIN By John F. Bailey. July 27, 2021:
The New York State Covid Tracker reports Westchester County covid positive rate doubled from 1.1% of those tested on Monday, July 19 through yesterday July 27 to 2.3% in a week, with low testing universes.
COUNTY ON PACE TO DOUBLE INFECTIONS IN 2 WEEKS. 68 AVERAGE NEW INFECTIONS A DAY –547 NEW CASES IN WESTCHESTER IN 7 DAYS.
The county averaged 68 new persons testing positive each day for a total of 547 8 days. from July 19 through July 26 (yesterday).
This means that each of those 547 persons infected in the last 7 days could spread the disease to 4,923 persons in two weeks creating a continuing third wave of infections that unless authorities act now to stop the behaviors that are contributing to this steady growth in infections.
This spread is related to the false sense of relief and feeling it is safe to mix and mingle, beach party, party indoors and out and of course, the reluctance of 20% of residents who refuse to get the vaccination, but we do not know that number of persons unvaccinated. We do not know if many persons scheduled for second shots are not getting them.
The Delta Corona Varient is also being blamed for this.
Why aren’t the authorities publishing the Delta Varient split between Delta and regular Covid? This would prove that the varient is the culprit in the rise and also prove the vaccine boosters have to allow for not only Delta varient but also the Lambda Varient.
Why aren’t the authorities publishing how many persons with 2-shots of the vaccine have gotten covid or the Delta Varient?
Why aren’t the authorities publishing how many persons with 1-shot of the vaccine have come down with covid or the Delta varient? They have to know those numbers.
But the main cause is that July 4 weekend because that is what the positive infection rate shows.
On July 3 the infection positive rate in Westchester was–fasten your seatbelt– .004% that is less than half a percent positive, 15 people of 3,588 tested were positive.
On July 9, one week later, 34 of 4,063 tested positive, raising the infection rate to .009 –just about 1%–nothing to worry about according to Johns Hopkins University Covid spread model. It was on July 10 at that point that cases started to rise each day: 33,37,32,51, 47, to 51 of 4,652 testing positive on July 16 for a Covid positive pace of 1.1% Still a positive rate where the disease does not grow
On July 23 , two weeks after the start of the 3 day July 4 holiday 5,366 were tested, 86 tested positive–and the positive rate was 1.6%. The corona virus Third Wave was now spreading at faster than it could be contained. The 14 days until positives broke past containment, parallel the infection period coronavirus takes to show symptoms. The daily numbers from the 16th to the 23rd of July are chilling: 51, 55, 34,51,56,63,76, and the high of 85 on the 23rd are chilling.
Authorities need to test higher quantities of people in the county to see if the low number of tests, averaging approximately 3 to 4,000 a day, are giving us a false reading of how many people could have covid in the county. However, even if the positive rate drops, because your covid positives drop as a percentage the actual new positives may be higher in number than than the new positives from the smaller universes. I worry about that.
What can Westchester due to stop it?
Authorities are considering social distancing, back to masks, back to lowering parties and get-togethers, but without answers on who is getting sick from the county and the state, you cannot tell with certainty what to do.
Vaccines should be made mandatory and persons not willing to get the vaccine confined to their homes, That will bring down the new spread. Performance venues, restaurants, bars should require proof of vaccine for all who wish to enter. Sporting events on the school level should require testing of all athletes.
School Districts should be very adamant to get meaningful facts from the county and the state on the issues I have raised in this column and look very carefully at their infection rates last school year when they were on hybrid models.
School Districts should demand that all eligible for vaccines among students should get the vaccine.
Vaccines are getting bad irresponsible press. The fact is as Governor Cuomo said Monday, the fact that vaccines work is irrefutable. The vaccine stopped the Second Wave and brought us so close to beating covid.
If the wave exhausts itself over the next 5 days with 557 new cases in the last 7 days with each having possibly infected 10 persons through contacts who spread the disease exploding the epidemic again. The spread they could cause over 5,000 infections. Because a 2.3% infection rate means one person infects about 6 persons and if two persons if you have 2.3% infection rate two persons can infect 10 to 12 persons and those 12 persons can spread it to 12 more and so the infections grow rapidly.
The effect as Governor Cuomo explained in March of 2020, the key to controlling the disease is to keep the infection rate down to 1.1% When the rate rose over 2% New York was doubling the new cases of covid in two days.
On the last day of June by contrast, Westchester was had positive infection rates of under .005% for a month.
In May, after the April stoppage of Covid thanks in part to introduction of vaccines in April, the infection rate reduced to 1% infection rate the first week in May and stayed there for two weeks when it dropped to .007% on May 13. It stayed there until the “Anything Goes” July 4 weekend.
We were so close to beating covid.
We believed it was over or wanted so desperately to think it was over
We had the vaccine and we did not all get it.
We were so eager to believe it was over.
We were so eager to party and see each other again.
We listened to wishful thinking.
We listened to powerful interests
We believed them.
We wanted to.
It is another Ernest Hemingway moment to remember immortalized in the unforettable last words of The Sun Also Rises
Brett the glamorous heroine says to the correspondent, Jake Barnes:
The day is hot and bright. As they pass a policeman directing traffic and raising a red baton, Brett laments that if only things were different “we could have had such a damned good time together.” Jake replies,
“Isn’t it pretty to think so?”
Now you and I have to stop it again.