Westchester Covid Cases SHARPLY UP.

Posted on August 28, 2023 by John Bailey

CASES RISE 7 WEEKS SINCE JULY 8:

JULY CASES: 1,064. AUGUST NEW COVID CASES: 1,885.

RISE AT 75 A DAY THAT WE KNOW OF.

WHITE PLAINS HOSPITAL AUGUST: 68% OF PATIENTS ADMITTED FOUND WITH COVID AFTER BEING ADMITTED IN AUGUST.

WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from New York State Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey. August 28, 2028:

The number of lab-confirmed persons with Covid in August in Westchester was 519 August 20 through Saturday August 26.

The number of walk-ins for a labtest as a result of antigen positive results OR checking symptoms testing positive according to the State in Westrchester County last week was 519.

The 519 is the highest week total of the month of August.

It is also the highest weekly Westchester number of cases since February 25 of this year when that week reported 542 cases.

That was when vacinations were having the effect of slowing new case growth in Westchester from 6,573 cases in January. In the month of February, new Westchester covid cases slowed to 2,681 by the end of the week of February 25. With 542 for that week. In that third week of February this year the county was running 77 new cases a day.

Last week ended Saturday, the county 519 cases for 7 days were 75 A DAY close to equal the spread rate of last August, 2022.

The Westchester county growth matches the case rise of mid February.

The trendline of the two monites is exactly the opposite.

Last August in 2022, infections dropped sharply from 10,298 in July 2022 down to 6,325 at the end of August, new cases dropped 40%

This August 2023, new confirmed lab verified tests for the month were 1,885 compared to July 1,064. – a 77% INCREASE in a month.

The 1,064 verified positives infected 1,885 in August a spread rate 1.7, one infected person infecting 1.7 other persons or around 2 a person. At this rate, the positives we knew about spread the disease to 2 others in a very fast 2 to 3 days…and that multiplied.

At this rate of almost two persons infected by every positive September may see 1,883 infectons.

It is sobering to look at how the summer activities of July 4, great weather launched a summer wave now washing over us.

It increased new positives in July from 20 a day at the beginning of July to up to 50 a day by the first week of August. By the end of August our relief at “the covid being over” was “living in a feel’s paradise.”

Now we are seeing instant spread after a weekend with new cases as high as 100 in a day.

On Friday, August 25, Westchester reported 103. The highest single day infections of the month.

People are coming down with covid fast fast fast.

From August 1 to August 27 the positives have soared Monday through Friday, directly as a result on the increased risk of infection. We are not masking, we are getting careless.

The schools open across the county and there is high potential for infection from the three new varients.

Do not be lulled about how mild covid is. You do not know how it will affect you.

If you test yourself with an antigen test and are positive—

You have about 5 days in which to go in to a medical provider, confirm you are positive and get yourself treated with paxlovid which I do not know whether it kills the covid infection or just abates the systems.

Paxlovid was the drug Donald Trump received to treat his positive covid case during his Presidency.

The highway to paxlovid has limited access, it can only be used within 5 days when first symptoms first appeared.

That was this week in Covid.

It is up sharply.

Careless socializing, failure to mask well you never know when covid will drop in.

The new wave is building. The three new variants are lurking and they are rapidly deploying.

They are looking for you to make a slip.

At White Plains Hospital Medical Center, since August 1, according to the New York Health Department through Friday, August 25, of 263 patients admitted to beds in the hospital, 181 of the were found after admissions to also have covid. That is 68% of admissions to beds.

WHAT WILL THIS FALL/WINTER LOOK LIKE? YOUR LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGIST PREDICTS

Posted on August 28, 2023 by John Bailey

What will this fall/winter look like?

bY DR. KATELYN JETELINA (Reprinted with permission)

AUG 24, 2023

The fall/winter season always means more respiratory sickness—the weather changes, people head inside, and social networks change (school starts, holiday celebrations occur). But the last four years have resulted in very unusual patterns.

This makes predicting this season a fool’s game. But I’ll take the bait and give it a shot.

What makes predicting challenging?

Three main factors:

Many scientists agree that SARS-CoV-2 still hasn’t settled into a predictable, seasonal pattern. BA.2.86 is an excellent example.
Changing human behavior: The changing immune landscape, new and improved tools, and pandemic fatigue have meant that human behavior has changed drastically from season to season, as I outlined in a rough table below. Human behavior plays into viral patterns.
Perplexing viral behavior: Other viruses’ timing seems to be off. One hypothesis is viral-to-viral interaction—one virus takes over, then subsides, and another virus wave begins due to population-level immunity to the first virus. For example, last year, we were concerned about a triple-demic—all three viruses peaking simultaneously and flooding our hospital systems. Interestingly, they didn’t, which helped immensely. (Viral-to-viral interaction? Maybe—we’ll see what happens this year.)

(Hospitalizations per 100,000 for RSV (green), flu (blue), and COVID-19 (red). Source: CDC

But I think this season will be the first time we have a repeat in behavior (except for the RSV vaccine availability) and all three viruses present.

So, my guess: this year’s patterns will broadly mirror last year’s.

So what happened last year?

RSV arrived earlier than usual (peaking in early November) and with a vengeance, particularly among children under 5. Our pediatric hospitals were overwhelmed, to say the least.

Flu also came earlier than usual, peaking around mid-November. (Pre-pandemic it peaked in mid-January.) But last year’s wave was about the same height as pre-pandemic.

COVID-19 had a middle-of-the-road year. In other words, hospitalizations weren’t as bad as before but still had a sizeable impact.

Of course, BA.2.86 on the scene complicates fall/winter predictions. The COVID-19 Modeling Hub—8 academic teams across the U.S.—made projections before BA.2.86 was identified but took this kind of scenario into account:

If BA.2.86 explodes, we likely see closer to scenario F
If BA.2.86 fizzles, we likely see scenario E

This means we should expect to lose 55,000 (optimistic model) to 450,000 Americans (pessimistic model) over the next two years.

Scenario Modeling Hub projections for COVID-19 deaths across four scenarios

What happened in the Southern Hemisphere?

The Northern Hemisphere has an advantage in predicting upcoming seasons—Southern Hemisphere data. Their respiratory season occurs before ours, so we can look to their winter season to predict ours.

This year’s Southern Hemisphere respiratory season looked a whole lot like last year’s:

In South America, RSV made huge waves, just as high as last year.

Respiratory Syncytial virus distribution and percent positivity by subregion, 2015-2023, Region of the Americas
Flu hospitalizations in Australia were as early and about as high as 2022.

Number of influenza hospitalizations at sentinel hospitals, from April to October, 2016 to 2023 by year and week of diagnosis. Source here.

Excess deaths in Australia continue to tick up from pre-pandemic levels.

The all-cause death rate per 100,000 population, all ages, 2017 to 18 June 2023. Source here.

Bottom line

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Northern Hemisphere saw a repeat of last year: an early RSV wave, followed by an early flu wave, and COVID-19 finishing us off. But of course, predicting patterns only 4 years into a novel virus is a fool’s game.

Regardless, we know viruses are coming. Their wave height depends heavily on how we utilize our tools, like vaccines, ventilation, medications, and masks. Let’s consider using them.

Love, YLE

“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH Ph.D.—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom. During the day, she is a senior scientific consultant to several organizations. At night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health world so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below:

WESTCHESTER DEVELOPMENT CORP FINANCES $195 MILLION NEW PATIENT CARE TOWER AT WESTCHESTER MEDICAL CENTER

Posted on August 26, 2023 by John Bailey

Rendering of Patient Care Tower at Westchester Medical Center

New Tower Would Allow Hospital to Convert to 100% Private Rooms

WHITE PLAINS, NY (August 2023) – The Westchester County’s Local Development Corporation (LDC) voted on August 23 final approval of $195 million in tax-exempt bond financing for the development of a new 162,626-square-foot Patient Care Tower on the campus of Westchester Medical Center in Valhalla.

“Today’s historic approval by the Local Development Corporation is yet another example of how we are working with our not-for-profit community in securing tax-exempt bond financing benefits that are provided at no cost or risk to the taxpayers of Westchester County. This magnificent new project will further enhance our County’s world-class healthcare sector while providing a boost to our region’s economy,” said Westchester County Executive George Latimer.

“The Local Development Corporation is very pleased to approve the bond financing for this very important healthcare development at the Westchester Medical Center campus. As a result, nearly 900 construction jobs and new full-time jobs will be created and the County will receive more than $3.5 million in total economic benefits,” said Local Development Corporation Chair Joan McDonald.

“The LDC has a clear vision for the future of Westchester County, and we’re happy that vision includes projects such as the Patient Care Tower,” said Michael D. Israel, President and Chief Executive Officer, Westchester Medical Center Health Network (WMCHealth). “The Patient Care Tower on the Westchester Medical Center campus will be the Hudson Valley’s hub of critical care medicine as it will bring together critical care and medical-surgical specialties in one location, enabling Westchester Medical Center to convert to all private inpatient rooms across the rest of the campus. Additionally, the Patient Care Tower will advance our academic mission by giving medical residents and students a state-of-the-art facility in which to train.”

According to a cost benefit analysis prepared for the LDC, the project would provide the County with total benefits of $3,531,780 over 30 years. The total benefits are comprised of $722,468 in sales tax revenue from construction; $2,528,062 of sales tax revenue from operations over 30 years, and $281,250 in fees to be collected by the LDC based on the bond proceeds. The project is also estimated to create more than 770 construction jobs and 127 new full-time jobs.

The $221.3 million Patient Care Tower project would feature a five-story, 128-bed structure with all of its inpatient rooms ICU-equipped and a patient-centric design with leading edge amenities that will create a soothing, healing environment. It will house vital services for WMCHealth patients and their families including trauma, neurosciences, cardiology and general surgery.

The Local Development Corporation assists Westchester not-for-profit organizations in securing tax-exempt bond financing benefits. These benefits are provided at no cost or risk to the taxpayers of Westchester County. Since its inception in 2012, LDC has assisted not-for-profit organizations in securing tax-exempt bond financing totaling over $500 million.

THE FORCE OF INFECTION:THIS WEEK IN COVID OUTBREAKS

Posted on August 26, 2023 by John Bailey

This week in outbreaks: Aug 25 edition

Quick update on Covid-19 and RSV

bY DE. CAITLIN RIVERS (Reprinted with permission)

AUG 25, 2023

It finally got me! This week I’m recovering from Covid-19, after successfully avoiding it for years. Thankfully, my case was fairly mild and I’ve completed isolation, but some extra rest is still in order, so this week’s newsletter will be abbreviated.

Covid-19 activity continues to rise in the West and Northeastern regions according to data from Biobot, marking nine weeks of continuous increase. However, wastewater concentration in the Midwest appears to have peaked, and the South shows slight improvement. Hospitalization metrics are also still increasing across all regions of the country, though they remain below previous peaks.

I’m also closely following news of the concerning new variant, BA.2.86. I agree with my colleagues that this variant is one to watch because it has a large number of mutations and was detected simultaneously in multiple countries globally. Both of these suggest it could be capable of causing trouble. But for now, it constitutes a minority of circulating variants, so we have a few weeks before we’ll know more.

Also of concern, RSV activity is still increasing in Florida and Georgia, according to data from CDC. Other Southern states may also be beginning to pick up as well, but trends are not as clear. On a positive note, an RSV shot for infants is now available, and can help protect them from severe illness. Older adults have a new option as well. For more information, see the post I wrote with

Katelyn Jetelina

recently.

A guide to Fall vaccine options

CAITLIN RIVERS AND KATELYN JETELINA

AUG 17

Read full story

Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

Frozen corn and mixed vegetables from Food Lion and Kroger (more info)
Dehumidifiers, dozens of models sold by major retailers, including Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Walmart. The recalled units were manufactured between 2011 and 2014 (more info — check this list carefully, it’s extensive)
If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.

Stay safe out there. I’ll be back in your inbox next week with more news you can use.

Back to School chalk — Best of luck if you or your loved ones are beginning a new school year. Photo by Deleece Cook on Unsplash