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WESTCHESTER  COUNTY NEW  FIRST-TIME COVID INFECTIONS DECLINE  FIRST TIME IN 4 WEEKS

COVID INFECTIONS HAVE INCREASED IN 10 WEEKS OF LAST 13 DATING BACK TO APRIL 1

REINFECTIONS OF COVID SUFFERERS “OVER COVID” SURGE OVER SAME STRETCH. UNKNOWN FACTOR AS FALL “NORMAL” RETURNS MAYBE.

WPCNR CORONAVIRUS REPORT. From New York State COVID TRACKER & REINFECTIONS TRACKER. Observations & Analysis by John F. Bailey.

The week from Sunday July 17 through Saturday, July 23, saw  2,360 persons come down with new first time infections of covid, a decline for the first time in 4 weeks of 6% from last week (2,512).

The New York State Health Department reports the omicron variant has been responsible for reinfecting thousands across the 7 county Mid-Hudson Region, with the B.a. varient on the way.

The county saw 337 new first-time infections a day of covid in last week’s reduced number of covid infections .

In the last four weeks dating back through Sunday June 27, the county averaged 330 new infections a day. The average new infections a day has been consistent.

To date in the month of July from July 1 through July 23, Westchester County has reported 7,825 new first-time Covid sufferers, on track for approximately 10,000 new first time covid cases for the month. 

If the present average rate of new infections a week of 2,399 “new” infections (each week for the last 4 weeks) continues, the month of July will see 10,224 infections for the month.

This is not good, considering during last July 2021 recorded 1,782 infections in  Westchester County when an average 2% infection rate in Westchester County plus relaxed restrictions lead to a resurgence of covid that eventually balooned into the January 2022 all time high of first infections that was stopped by the vaccines. Now tracking of reinfections by the State Health Department is casting doubts on the prolonged effects of the vaccines.

This month Westchester is on track for 8,442 more than the 1,782 infections Westchester had last July. 

Superintendents of Schools, City and town leaders should be contemplating now what this could mean in new infections as well as more reinfections, now giving new momentum to the resurgence of covid despite assurances that covid is no longer as serious a sickness as once thought. I don’t want to get it, do you?

A second presentation by the New York State has tracked the rate of persons “cured of covid” who have become reinfected with covid after 90 days of first having the disease. Bear in mind as you look at this chart.

How many more Reinfections have to come back to plunge persons who have had the disease for the first time back into the misery of covid, never mind how less serious the disease is.

But rather than speculate, before I show you this chilling chart. (I find it chilling.)  Here is what the New York State Health Department says about it:

“As the Omicron variant emerged in New York State, the number of people who have been infected with COVID for a second time has increased dramatically (“reinfection”). The Department of Health recently released a study with California and the CDC that looks at the occurrence of reinfection, among other trends. The Department will update reinfection data here on a weekly basis.

What is a reinfection?

A reinfection is when a person becomes infected with COVID, enough time passes, and later becomes infected again. A person is considered to have been reinfected if they test positive again 90 days or more after their first positive test.

How does this relate to other testing information DOH publishes?

Because data on reinfections and new infections are collected in different ways, they must be presented separately.

The COVID-19 daily testing tracker and the positive tests over time dashboard show the number of first-time infections in New York State, based on when these new infections are reported to the State.

The reinfection page presents the number of unique instances a person tested positive, thus including those who have tested positive again 90 days or more after their first positive test. To ensure each positive case is at least 90 days apart, reinfection cases are tracked by the date the sample was collected.

Due to high volumes and differing reporting practices and timing, many testing sites do not report a case the same day the specimen is collected or the positive result is confirmed.

As a result, the total for any single day will differ between these two reports.”

Here is that Reinfection Chart:

Let’s crunch some numbers of 5,684,324 First infections across the state the last 7 months and see what they say to us.

Across the state the last 7 months 5% of first infections or 309,103 that is 11,039 a week.

In the Mid-Hudson region, which has been climbing in infections the last two weeks we see 664,978 new infections the last 7 months, and 37,515 “Reinfections after 90 days” that is a 6% rate of reinfections.

The reinfection rate last week for the Mid-Hudson region was 1,018 on a population of 2.3 Million or 145 a day for a week. Meanwhile first infections in the Mid-Hudson region last week July 17-23 was 25 persons per day the average for the week . Now if they get reinfected in 90 days, at the rate of 6% this means more cases significantly in 3 months from now. Six percent of the 691 First time positives Saturday in 90 days would be 41 “Reinfections” in one day or an astounding 290 new “Reinfections” in a week in October in the first full month of school and holidays.

Let us apply that to the Westchester County totals for the week:

Westchester County averaged 36 new positives per for 1,004,000 people Saturday, 349 positives. If they are mild cases of covid and are cured, and they reinfect at the 6% rate by October, you will have 20 new Reinfections a day or 140 “reinfections” the week of October 13.

What this says to me  is I have to be more careful.

What it says to you the parent of a school child or child under five is up to you.

What it says to you the adult who wants to forget about covid, you do so at your own risk.

What it says about the way the Department of Health does not count  Antigen  (at home tests), which I believe are connected to the consistent  jumps in new infections on Tuesdays, Wednesdays Thursdays Fridays and Saturday days, I believe indicates the disease is infecting faster after these hot, sultry days and wonderful beach and crowd-drawing events. Just an observation, mind you, but you draw your own conclusions.

This reinfection data is disturbing.

Even with the apparently low 6% reinfection rate (the chart indicates) it multiplies daily by several hundred persons a week in the county the number of persons to care for, with the double edged covid effect of spreading the disease in the community.

It would be nice if the the Health Department explains what this means instead of leaving it up to us to figure out.

A 6% Reinfection Rate is not “low.”

We need to know how “high” the numbers of reinfections could be 3 months from today on a daily basis and how those reinfections will pile on to the medical load of new cases in October.

Please.

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GOVERNOR HOCHUL WARNS NEW YORKERS OF DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND

Heat Advisory in Effect Through Sunday From New York City to the Capital Region; High Heat Index Values at or Over 100 Degrees

Most of New York State Expected To See High Heat and Potentially Severe Storms Over the Weekend

Governor Hochul Encourages New Yorkers To Visit Regional Cooling Centers, Stay Indoors and Check on Vulnerable Neighbors

Governor Kathy Hochul Friday day warned New Yorkers of dangerous heat conditions, which began impacting the State on Tuesday and will last through the weekend. High temperatures and humid conditions are forecast, especially from the Capital Region down the Hudson Valley to New York City.

The rest of the State will continue to see warm temperatures over the next several days with chances of isolated severe thunderstorms this weekend.

The National Weather Service expects heat index values to exceed 90 degrees across most of the State, with areas from Albany to New York City reaching or exceeding 100 degrees on Sunday.

“New Yorkers are incredibly resilient, but when it comes to extreme heat and humidity in the summertime, there are measures that need to be taken to stay safe including staying indoors, reducing electricity usage and keeping hydrated.” Governor Hochul said.

 “We need everyone to be on alert this weekend, keeping an eye out for any signs of heat-related illness and looking after one another. Cooling centers are open across New York City, and I encourage everyone who needs help staying cool to take advantage of these resources.”

State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services Commissioner Jackie Bray said, “Unfortunately, the extreme heat is not done with New York yet. We expect the heat to begin to subside on Tuesday, but until then, New Yorkers should take care to stay cool. Limit strenuous activity outdoors, stay hydrated, take care to make sure your pets aren’t outside for extended periods of time and know the signs of heat-related illness.”

New Yorkers should monitor local weather forecasts for the most up-to-date information. For a complete listing of weather watches, warnings, advisories and latest forecasts, visit the National Weather Service website.

The New York State Department of Health also reminds New Yorkers that heat is the number one weather-related killer in the United States.

Heat-related deaths and illness are preventable, yet annually many people suffer from the effects of extreme heat. Some individuals are at a higher risk for heat-related illness than others. New Yorkers should learn the risk factors and symptoms of heat-related illness to protect themselves and those they love.

Symptoms of heat stroke include:

• Hot, dry, red skin
• A rapid pulse
• Rapid and shallow breathing
• A body temperature higher than 105 degrees
• Loss of alertness, confusion, and/or loss of consciousness.

You can also find more information about where you can locate a Cooling Center near you and other helpful extreme heat-related advice, by visiting the New York State Department of Health’s emergency weather webpage.

New York State Department of Public Service CEO Rory M. Christian said, “It’s important for the public to continue to look for ways to lower their electricity usage. It is also important for residents to stay cool and stay hydrated. By taking action now, we can lower electricity usage during this heat wave while staying healthy and safe.”

New York State Department of Health Commissioner Dr. Mary T. Bassett said, “Extreme heat can be dangerous for anyone, but every New Yorker can learn how to protect themselves and their loved ones from heat-related illness by being prepared. Recognizing the signs of illness and responding quickly are vital to avoid serious health repercussions that can be caused by overheating. I urge New Yorkers to follow Governor Hochul’s advice to ready for heat and humidity the next few days: Check the weather in your area, learn the symptoms of heat-related illnesses, and know where to go if you or your family need to cool down at a cooling center.”

New York State Department of Environmental Conservation Commissioner Basil Seggos said, “As this heat wave continues across the state and impacting air quality in the New York City and Long Island regions, it’s important to remember important safety tips. By Limiting outdoor activity, especially on individuals with respiratory issues and reducing electricity usage whenever possible, we can keep our families safe and help our environment.”

Agency Preparations

Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services

The New York State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services’ Emergency Operations Center continues to monitor weather conditions, including extreme heat and severe weather, communicating with local emergency managers across the state and coordinate any State agency response needs from local governments. The State’s stockpiles are prepared to deploy assets to support missions as needed.

Department of Public Service

The New York State Department of Public Service (DPS) is tracking electric system conditions and overseeing utility response to any situations that may arise as a result of this week’s extreme heat and potential thunderstorm activity.

DPS has been in direct contact with utility leaders to ensure they are preparing their systems for the extreme heat and will be tracking system conditions throughout the event.

If necessary, DPS will activate the peak load reduction program for all New York State agencies; the New York Independent System Operator will activate their voluntary Emergency Response Demand Program to curtail load as necessary; and New York’s utilities have approximately 5,500 workers available, as necessary, to engage in damage assessment, response, repair, and restoration efforts across New York State, for this heat event. Agency staff will track utilities’ work throughout the event and ensure utilities shift appropriate staffing to regions that experience the greatest impact.

Heat Tips

Excessive heat is the leading cause of preventable, weather-related deaths each year, particularly among the elderly. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, heat causes more than 600 preventable deaths in the United States every year. To help New Yorkers stay safe during excessive heat, follow the below guidance:

Be Prepared

• Taking precautions to avoid heat exhaustion is important, and this includes adjusting your schedule to avoid the outdoors during the hottest hours of the day and modifying your diet and water intake when possible.
• Reduce strenuous activities and exercises, especially from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m., which are peak sunlight hours.
• Exercise should be conducted early in the morning, before 7 a.m.
• Eat less protein and more fruits and vegetables. Protein produces and increases metabolic heat, which causes water loss. Eat small meals but eat more often. Do not eat salty foods.
• Drink at least two to four glasses of water per hour during extreme heat, even if you do not feel thirsty. Avoid beverages containing alcohol or caffeine.
• If possible, stay out of the sun and stay in air conditioning. The sun heats the inner core of your body, resulting in dehydration. If air conditioning is not available, stay on the lowest floor, out of the sunshine, or go to a public building with air conditioning
• If you must go outdoors, wear sunscreen with a high sun protector factor rating (at least SPF 15) and a hat to protect your face and head.
• When outdoors, wear loose-fitting, lightweight, and light-colored clothing. Cover as much skin as possible to avoid sunburn and over-warming effects of sunlight on your body.
• Never leave children, pets or those who require special care in a parked vehicle, especially during periods of intense summer heat. Temperatures inside a closed vehicle can reach over 140 degrees Fahrenheit quickly. Exposure to such high temperatures can kill within a matter of minutes.
• Try to check on your neighbors during a heat wave, especially if they are elderly, have young children or have disabilities. Make sure there is enough food and water for your pets.
• Prolonged exposure to the heat can be harmful and potentially fatal. Call 911 if you or someone you know shows signs or symptoms of heat illness, including headache, light headedness, muscle cramps, nausea, and vomiting.

Conserve Electricity

Taking smart steps to reduce energy use, particularly during periods of peak demand, not only helps to lower the state’s peak load but also saves consumers money when electricity is the most expensive. To reduce energy use, particularly during peak periods, the public is encouraged to take some of the following low- or no-cost energy saving measures:

• Close drapes, windows, and doors on your home’s sunny side to reduce solar heat buildup.
• Turn off air conditioners, lights, and other appliances when not at home and use a timer to turn on your air conditioner about a half-hour before arriving home. Use advanced power strips to centrally “turn off” all appliances and save energy.
• Fans can make rooms feel 10 degrees cooler and use 80 percent less energy than air conditioners.
• If purchasing an air conditioner, look for an ENERGY STAR qualified model, which uses up to 25 percent less energy than a standard model.
• Set your air conditioner at 78 degrees or higher to save on your cooling costs.
• Place your air conditioner in a central window, rather than a corner window, to allow for better air movement.
• Consider placing the unit on the north, east or the best-shaded side of your home. Your air conditioner will have to work harder and use more energy if it is exposed to direct sunlight.
• Seal spaces around the air conditioner with caulking to prevent cool air from escaping.
• Clean the cooling and condenser fans plus the coils to keep your air conditioner operating efficiently and check the filter every month and replace as needed.
• Use appliances such as washing machines, dryers, dishwashers and ovens early in the morning or late at night. This will also help reduce humidity and heat in the home.
• Use energy-efficient, ENERGY STAR qualified light bulbs instead of standard incandescent light bulbs, and you can use 75 percent less energy.
• Microwave food when possible. Microwaves use approximately 50 percent less energy than conventional ovens.
• Dry clothes on a clothesline. If using a clothes dryer, remember to clean the dryer’s lint trap before every load.
• Be mindful of the different ways you’re consuming water throughout your home. Instead of using 30 to 40 gallons of water to take a bath, install a low-flow showerhead, which uses less than 3 gallons a minute.
• Lowering the temperature setting on your wash machine and rinsing in cold water will reduce energy use.
• Additional tips on how to conserve energy is available on NYSERDA’s website here.

Water Safety

Boaters should make sure to take proper safety precautions when enjoying the many boating opportunities New York State has to offer. The State Parks Marine Services Bureau reminds boaters to practice safe and responsible boating, including:

• Wear a personal flotation device whenever they are on the water. State law requires that children under age 12 wear a personal flotation device while on a watercraft.
• Complete a safe boating course.
• Properly equip and inspect their vessel.
• Maintain a prudent speed.
• Refrain from mixing alcohol with boating.
• Check the weather before heading out on the water to learn about potential storms and seek immediate shelter on shore if thunder is audible.

For more information about boating safety, including listings of boating safety courses, and marine recreation in New York State, click here.

Summer heat can lead to the formation of ground-level ozone, a major component of photochemical smog. DEC and DOH will issue Air Quality Health Advisories when DEC meteorologists predict levels of pollution, either ozone or fine particulate matter, are expected to exceed an Air Quality Index value of 100. Information about the Air Quality forecast for New York State can be found here.

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MIDWEEK SURGE PATTERN CONTINUES.

HIGHEST TUESDAY SPIKE SINCE JUNE 7

REFLECTS 500 A DAY POSITIVES, 3,000 INFECTIONS A WEEK SEEN 2 MONTHS AGO

WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. From New York State Covid Tracker. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. July 21, 2022:

The pattern of sharply rising new persons testing positive in Westchester County by midweek  continues.

 The rise appearing consistently the last three weeks in July,  reflects in the results reported Mondays, beginning two days after weekend declines in positive tests. This steady pattern continues indicating more persons are coming in to test after either showing symptoms or taking an at home test after their weekend activities and going for a medical test which shows positive in state laboratory tests.

Previously in July,  on the 28^th of June.. we saw 262 positives on Tueday June 28; 252 positives July 5; up 70 persons sharply to 322 on July 12;  and on Tuesday July 19, up 144 new positives to 466. The last time Tuesday positives hit that over 400 number was back on June 7, when we had 366. In May positives ranged from in the 500 positives a day  for the four weeks of that month, over 3,000 new cases a week

Last week when Westchester County hit 2,512 new cases the fourth consecutive week of rising cases, and 14^th weekly increase in cases in 16 weeks since April 1.

Putting Westchester in covid perspective, last  Wednesday showed 478 positives; Thursday, 397; Friday 318 and Saturday 310 . The county averaged 391 new positives a day through the weekend. If we continue at last week’s Wednesday through Saturday positivity rate, the county will have 1,568 new cases added to  the positives July 17(Sunday) 234; July 18 (Monday) 239; and July 19(Tuesday) 466,  matching last week’s 2,512 paces.

If we keep at the 391 a day positive rate Wednesday (the Wednesday positives will be reported this afternoon Westchester will stay at the number of 2,500 new cases this week.

If we increase we increase at the 400 a day rate we will be very close to 3,000 new cases this week through Saturday—back to the May surges of 3,000 infections a week

More worrying are the new positives showing up in Orange County Tuesday, which had 255 new positives…the first time that county had been over 100 cases since July 11, and Rockland County  which reported 184 new positive double what that county reported July 11. That says more public behavior in Orange and Rockland are spreading the disease faster.

The coronavirus is growing. Positives are popping up in midweek through Friday.

That is what is happening.

In the week ending Jul 14, 2022, there were 151 patients hospitalized with confirmed or suspected cases of Covid-19 in Westchester hospitals (9% of all inpatients). 83% of all inpatient beds were occupied and 76% of all ICU beds were occupied. There were 342 total beds free and 45 ICU beds free. Statewide, 81% of all inpatient beds were occupied and 71% of all ICU beds were occupied.

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WPCNR THE POWER STORY. By John F. Bailey. July 20, 2022 updated 11:26 PM EDT :

In a unanimous vote in a Special Meeting Tuesday night, the Town of Greenburgh voted unanimously to stay with Sustainable Westchester as the organization rebids a wider range of possible green energy and traditional suppliers for its 29 Westchester towns and cities (including White Plains).

The Town Board heard via Zoom from Dan Welch of Sustainable Westchester who explained the situation going forward as of Tuesday night. Here is video of first the vote, and Mr. Welch’s remarks

The story so far:

Sustainable Westchester has retained Transparent Energy of Fairfield New Jersey to poll energy suppliers nationally to attempt to get a lower fixed rate. Transparent Energy has confirmed this to WPCNR. Welsh in his remarks above in the video said 24 communities in the original 28 cities and towns have continued with the Sustainable Westchester group energy buy, (including we believe,White Plains).

The city of White Plains has neither confirmed or denied that they have approved another participation, or whether Mr. Welsh will be addressing the Mayor and Common Council on what to expect ahead. Welsh said that Yonkers is about to consider voting on joining the consortium as of last night. He also said Yorktown is expected to join.

He said the next duration of the new contract could as short as 1 year to 3 years depending on how the bids come in.