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MIDWEEK SURGE PATTERN CONTINUES.
HIGHEST TUESDAY SPIKE SINCE JUNE 7
REFLECTS 500 A DAY POSITIVES, 3,000 INFECTIONS A WEEK SEEN 2 MONTHS AGO
WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. From New York State Covid Tracker. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. July 21, 2022:
The pattern of sharply rising new persons testing positive in Westchester County by midweek continues.
The rise appearing consistently the last three weeks in July, reflects in the results reported Mondays, beginning two days after weekend declines in positive tests. This steady pattern continues indicating more persons are coming in to test after either showing symptoms or taking an at home test after their weekend activities and going for a medical test which shows positive in state laboratory tests.
Previously in July, on the 28th of June.. we saw 262 positives on Tueday June 28; 252 positives July 5; up 70 persons sharply to 322 on July 12; and on Tuesday July 19, up 144 new positives to 466. The last time Tuesday positives hit that over 400 number was back on June 7, when we had 366. In May positives ranged from in the 500 positives a day for the four weeks of that month, over 3,000 new cases a week
Last week when Westchester County hit 2,512 new cases the fourth consecutive week of rising cases, and 14th weekly increase in cases in 16 weeks since April 1.
Putting Westchester in covid perspective, last Wednesday showed 478 positives; Thursday, 397; Friday 318 and Saturday 310 . The county averaged 391 new positives a day through the weekend. If we continue at last week’s Wednesday through Saturday positivity rate, the county will have 1,568 new cases added to the positives July 17(Sunday) 234; July 18 (Monday) 239; and July 19(Tuesday) 466, matching last week’s 2,512 paces.
If we keep at the 391 a day positive rate Wednesday (the Wednesday positives will be reported this afternoon Westchester will stay at the number of 2,500 new cases this week.
If we increase we increase at the 400 a day rate we will be very close to 3,000 new cases this week through Saturday—back to the May surges of 3,000 infections a week
More worrying are the new positives showing up in Orange County Tuesday, which had 255 new positives…the first time that county had been over 100 cases since July 11, and Rockland County which reported 184 new positive double what that county reported July 11. That says more public behavior in Orange and Rockland are spreading the disease faster.
The coronavirus is growing. Positives are popping up in midweek through Friday.
That is what is happening.
In the week ending Jul 14, 2022, there were 151 patients hospitalized with confirmed or suspected cases of Covid-19 in Westchester hospitals (9% of all inpatients). 83% of all inpatient beds were occupied and 76% of all ICU beds were occupied. There were 342 total beds free and 45 ICU beds free. Statewide, 81% of all inpatient beds were occupied and 71% of all ICU beds were occupied.