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BY DR. KATELYN JETELINA. Your Local Epidemiologist. Reprinted with permission. November 16, 2022:
The respiratory illness storm ravages on. And it’s only November. Here is where we are with the “triple threat.”
RSV
Cases of RSV continue to skyrocket. Data shows we are testing a lot, though, as test positivity rates are not as high as in 2021. This is likely attributed to increased knowledge, which is good news. In addition, there are hints that RSV is peaking. With RSV, antigen test positivity rates usually peak before PCR, and that’s what we are seeing now. Cases may soon follow.
Historically, the RSV season lasts 5 months. It will be interesting to see how the holidays impact RSV patterns, though. Typically RSV peaks in January, but because it has arrived so early, we are in new viral dynamic territory.
There’s no doubt that social networks will change next week due to Thanksgiving. For example, we will see family that we don’t typically see. This will open up new pathways for transmission, and RSV numbers may therefore continue to rise.
Influenza
Flu is right behind RSV and coming in hot; it’s earlier and steeper than previous pandemic and non-pandemic years.
(Source: CDC)
We certainly see regional variability of the flu. A number of states in the South and the Atlantic seaboard, for example, have the highest activity level color that CDC records—purple in the map below. (The first time CDC used a purple color was in Louisiana in 2019, when they added it to the scheme due to very high levels.) This is causing flu surveillance at Johns Hopkins, for example, to go off the charts as seen below.
There is good news from the Southern Hemisphere among countries that just concluded their flu season. Chile, for example, found the flu vaccine is a good match for the current strain. They are reporting a 49% efficacy rate. But only 28% of Americans are vaccinated against the flu. This is almost 10 percentage points lower than pre-pandemic rates, which is frustrating.
COVID-19
Interestingly, for the first time during the pandemic, there are more than 300 subvariants circulating, and not one is dominating globally.
This isn’t stopping the virus from causing waves, though.
SARS-CoV-2 is currently creating two global hotspots: Western Pacific and Southeast Asia. In South Korea, for example, we see an increase in cases and hospitalizations due to the variant soup (lots of lines of color in the figure below are increasing, as opposed to just one or two lines of color that we’ve historically seen).
Other areas across the globe are starting to tick upward, including admissions in South Africa and Western Europe. Similarly, these upticks are not due to one variant but rather a mix of Omicron subvariants, waning immunity, weather, and behavior change.
The real headscratcher is that the U.S. wastewater continues to plateau, but given previous patterns, a wave should have started by now as BQ.1 accounts for more than 50% of cases. A lot of eyes are on the West, too, as a new Omicron subvariant—BN.1— is growing.
Given trends in Europe, it is still very likely that the U.S. will have a COVID-19 wave.
But, overall, this could be a good sign that we finally have an immunity wall that is challenging the movement of COVID-19, regardless of labs showing subvariants can partially escape immunity. We need to hold off on sweeping conclusions—like whether this pandemic is over— until this winter plays out.
Implications
The convergence of these diseases has three important implications:
Impact on hospital systems. The hospitals, and in particular pediatric hospitals and emergency departments, are hanging. by. a. thread. Every pre-pandemic winter, pediatric hospitals were overwhelmed. This year the unique combination of circumstances is creating terrible strain, which has many implications, including the quality of care for everyone. We need to fix this on a systematic level.
Risk of co-infections. Someone can be infected with two viruses at the same time. In fact, the first death from RSV and flu co-infection was reported in a child under 5 years old in California.
Lessons not learned? I had hoped we would have applied lessons from COVID-19 to other diseases, like masking, staying home while sick, and getting vaccinated. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like this is happening. After 2.5 years of a pandemic, the public (and leadership) is just in a different state of morale, and the willingness to take preventative steps seems to be lower.
Bottom line
“Normal” viruses are continuing to show their muscle, and the seasonal virus repertoire now includes COVID-19. We are very concerned going into winter, as this situation is already applying massive pressure to hospital systems. Time will tell how the next few months play out.
WPCNR RSV, FLU COVID SURVEILLANCE . Figures from the NYS Covid Tracker and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Observations and Analysis by John F. Bailey. November 16, 2022:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced 2.8 million flu diagnoses (one third the city’s 8.8 million population) this fall in New York city. At Brooklyn Kings County Hospital doctors told Bronx News 12 that they are seeing cases of RSV and Covid-19.
Infections of covid in Nassau and Suffolk Counties contribute to the covid spread, running over 700 cases daily depending on lab-verified tests. on Friday in Nassau and Suffolk County, reported 793 new covid cases and on Monday, 757 new persons infected with covid. This is not a new development.
It’s been going on in Nassau and Suffolk all summer long. One month ago for example on October 15, Nassau and Suffolk had 782 infections. They have averaged approximately 600 new covid infections a day. The Nassau and Suffolk counties are New York State hot spots.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced yesterday there have been at least 2.8 million flu diagnoses this season. Doctors at Kings County Hospital tell Bronx News 12 that they’re seeing many cases of not only the flu, but RSV and COVID-19 as well. , particularly affecting babies, a new development.
The latest official pronouncement follows on Dr. Katelyn Jetelina’s observation last week in her column published weekly on WPCNR and on her website yourlocalepidemiologist@substack.com where she makes the rounds of latest trends the last 24 hours. Last week Dr. Jetelina said RSV was spreading rapidly and again called what authorities should have been telling the people.
Babies are the primary targets of RSV.
“In pediatric patients, especially young babies, it does tend to primarily affect the lungs, and it can prevent the baby from breathing too well,” said Dr. Youssef at Kings County to Bronx News12. “So, what you want to look out for in those areas is poor feeding… some contractions in the lower spaces when breathing and any sign that you just feel they may need a little help taking some breaths.”
While there is no vaccine for RSV available to the public yet, preventative measures such as washing your hands and wearing a mask can help keep RSV at bay Dr. Youssef said.
Youssef said the hospital is preparing for another surge in covid cases this winter that could potentially be impacted by rising flu cases as well.
On Monday, Brooklyn reported 640 new covid cases. The Bronx 392, Manhattan 483. Queens 598 and Staten Island 99 covid cases. All five broughs Monday reported 2,212 lab-verifed cases of covid on a population of 8.8 million less than 0% of the city population
In Westchester County we are gulty too. The county reported 233 new cases of covid on 3,420 Lab-confirmed tests or 5.8%.
Westchester completed its 36th consecutive week as WPCNR reported Monday of over 1,000 infections of covid a week every week over the last 9 months.
This creeping terror of covid spread has entrenched the disease.
It is not as some would put it behind us and just something we could get. It is now an ever present danger, and it was not 9 months ago, when we were vaccinating and masking and social distancing.
In the spring we started opening up by decision of the legislature which took over the emergency powers of Governor Cuomo.
So far On Sunday, Westchester was confirmed to have 168 new covid cases by the State covid tracker.
Covid is not on the wane.
This has been a collective effort of downplaying the disease by all.
The disease does not stop. It has gained momentum by our failure to vaccinate fully, adopting reckless behavior because we want to, and lack of enforcement by leaders unwilling to risk unpopularity in an election year, and avoiding legislating any fines, warnings, and enforcement measures that would affect their popularity in an election year. The media have not reported the details of the covid continuing wave of infections.
Covid is now a regular disease that we’ve been getting in Westchester at 1,000 cases a week for 36 weeks, due to Westchester behavior the last 9 months.
Health officials in New York urge New Yorkers to receive their vaccinations for the flu and COVID-19.
WPCNR BEAR SURVEILLANCE.From Greenburgh Town Supervisor Paul Feiner. November 14, 2022:
This is the letter I received from the NYS DEC regarding bears seen in Greenburgh- Ardsley Road, Dobbs Ferry, E Irvington, Clarewood (this summer), Orchard Hill (near the Acme supermarket neighborhood)
A bear was seen on Ardsley Road just a few days ago
WEEK OF NOVEMBER 6 TO 12 REPORTS 1,214 NEW PERSONS POSITIVE FOR COVID THROUGH SATURDAY OVER 3-DAY WEEKEND. ELECTION DAY COMINGLING HAS YET TO SHOW A SURGE.
WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from NY State Covid Tracker. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey.
Spreading of the Covid virus through the last nine months from March through the first two weeks of November has averaged over 1,000 new cases a week.
The disease after being controlled in March, the month where vaccines started lower cases to 826 a week, ballooned to 1,605 cases a week in April has over the next 31 weeks, has generated an average of 1,579 new covid cases a week over the 9 months, and an average of 14,480 new cases a month.
The week ended Saturday November 12, saw 1,214 cases, or 173 a day, and cases down from 1,356 last week.
From Sunday to Saturday, new lab-verified covid positive persons in Westchester County were 190, 205, 212,180, 186, 124 and 117.
Now it remains to be seen whether the socializing of the 3-day weekend and the mingling on Election Day will result in the typical middle of the week spurts in infections.
On a monthly basis, the average number of infections per month the last 9 months were 14,480 new covid cases a month throughout Westchester County. Those 9 months resulted in 130,322 infections of covid.
Every week of the last 9 months, 1,509 infections were the average of new covid cases in the county, which counted for 127,208 infections on a weekly basis per month, 14,211 a month.
WPCNR COUNTY CLARION-LEDGER. From Westchester County Department of Communications. November 14, 2022:
Westchester County Executive George Latimer has proposed a $6 million dollar cut to the County property tax levy in a preview of his 2023 proposed Operating Budget. This is the fourth County property tax cut in a row presented by Latimer as County Executive.
Latimer said:“I have been all around this County; I have heard the stories from families who are feeling the strain of inflation- this budget is for them. We have once again cut taxes, and expanded the programs that the people of this County need. I am proud of this Budget, this is what honest and fair governing is, that is who we are as an administration.”
Closing 2022 with projected $65.9 million operating surplus
No borrowing for tax certs No borrowing for pension No use of fund balance
2023 Budget contains no borrowing or one-shots
No borrowing for tax certs No borrowing for pension and paying down $10.9 million for a prior balance No use of fund balance No borrowing for cash flow
Latimer said: “The 2023 Budget reflects a continued commitment to programs that meet the needs of Westchester County residents. We have cut taxes but we have also added $1 million to food security programs that serve 100 pantries, we have increased funding for homeless shelter contracts, and we have put in $500k for New Rochelle Family Court support services.”
Budget Director Larry Soule said: “This budget reflects the steadfast commitment of the County Executive to serve the needs of all residents of Westchester County, while at the same time remaining accountable to the needs of the taxpayers.”
Rating Agencies
The 2023 Budget increases the “rainy day fund” to about 19% of County operating expenditures- a bold way to stabilize the bond ratings for the County.
Latimer said: “For the past four consecutive fiscal years, our administration has been able to propose an Operating Budget that included a cut to the County property tax levy. Westchester County also boasts a AA+, AA+ and Aa1 rating by Standard and Poor’s, Fitch and Moody’s, respectively – among the highest ratings awarded by these three major agencies. These accomplishments are due in no small part to the professional work of the Westchester County Department of Finance.”
Finance Commissioner Karin Hablow said: “I applaud the County Executive for submitting a balanced budget that also includes another consecutive year of a decrease to the tax levy. The County has steadily improved its financial position while continuing to offer the services needed and sought out by its residents. The fiscally responsible budgets that the County Executive has proposed year after year will position Westchester County as a financially stable entity for years to come.”
Public Safety / Corrections / Probation
In a record setting year, the Department of Public Safety, Department of Corrections and Department of Probation are funded at the highest level they have ever been funded in Westchester County history – a total of $260.9 million.
Correction $156.6 million
Public Safety $59.1 million
Probation $45.2 million
This allocation in the Budget includes:
IT Coordinator and Crime Data Analyst for Public Safety
Three additional School Resource Officers in Katonah, North Salem and Hendrick Hudson
New Class of Corrections Officers included in Budget for 2023
Acting Public Safety Commissioner Terrance Raynor said: “The budget proposed by the County Executive fully funds our Department, and enables us to provide the critical law enforcement services that the people of Westchester expect and deserve. This budget will ensure that we can fulfill our core missions, and continue to support all municipal police agencies in our County.”
Corrections Commissioner Joe Spano said: “As part of our robust COVID prevention protocols we are utilizing more of our facility footprint, so keeping pace with employee retirements directly impacts operational safety and quality of life for WDOC staff, and the men and women in our care.”
Probation Commissioner Rocco Pozzi said: “The proposed 2023 Operating Budget continues to reflect the Latimer Administration’s support for Probation operations. The resources provided to the Probation Department will afford Probation Officers the ability to effectively supervise those individuals placed under our authority, which translates into a higher level of community protection.”
Economic Development
Economic Development accounts for $6 million in the 2023 Operating Budget, with a focus on the Life Sciences, Tourism and Healthcare Sectors. This includes $1.4 million for the Downtown Improvement Grant (DIG) Program.
Economic Development Director Bridget Gibbons said: “We are grateful to the County Executive for making this investment in economic development to support our existing businesses and inspire the launch of new businesses in Westchester County. Life sciences companies, advanced manufacturing companies, startups and others are thriving here, and we are proud to provide training, education and other resources to support them.”
Tourism Director Natasha Caputo said: “The County’s hotel industry was hard hit by COVID, with hotel closures changing the type and size of business we can handle. We have evolved tourism marketing efforts to attract leisure, business and meeting clientele that our hotels and tourism partners can serve well, with the intention of prompting repeat business. Momentum with film industry business is strong.”
Health and Mental Health
The Westchester County Health Department accounts for $220.8 million in the Operating Budget, and $17.2 million for the Department of Community Mental Health (DCMH).
Health Budget includes:
Maternal Mortality $1 million
Federally Qualified Health Centers / Neighborhood Health Centers expansion $1 million (total $3 million)
Health Commissioner Dr. Sherlita Amler said: “The Health Department has devoted a considerable amount of its resources over the past two years to its COVID response. This budget will allow the Department to refocus its attention on core public health priorities and inequities.”
DCMH Budget includes:
Project Alliance Mobile Crisis Response Team, Crisis Network and 988 Suicide Crisis Lifeline ($6.1 million)
Opioid Response and Overdose Prevention Initiative ($565,000)
Early Childhood Mental Health Services ($737,892)
DCMH Commissioner Michael Orth said: “Through the County Executive’s ongoing commitment to serving the people of Westchester County, the programs and funding in this proposed budget will further foster programs and supports for people with mental health, addiction and co-occurring disorder needs.”
Emergency Services
The Westchester County Department of Emergency Services has a total of $13 million in the County’s Operating Budget. This includes:
Two additional staff for Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan (CEMP) and to coordinate volunteers for Hazmat incidents
Commissioner Richard Wishniesaid: “This County Budget includes significant support of the first responder communities’ ability to provide state-of-the-art care in Westchester. Enhanced EMS services are a priority of County Executive Latimer, as is recruitment and retention of EMS and Fire Service members. Also supported is an emphasis on an all-hazards-approach of our office of emergency management as we begin to shift from Indian Point concerns, to a focus on protecting our citizens from the effects of climate change.”
Parks and Recreation
Total amount in the Budget for Parks and Recreation is $60.3 million.
A combined $28 million has been slotted for structural improvements at the Ice Casino and Playland Amusement Park. Additionally, $7 million has been allocated for Hilltop Hanover Farm and Environmental Center, and $3.3 million for Cranberry Lake Preserve improvements.
Latimersaid: “As the construction of the County’s historic investment in Playland continues, we look toward other park facilities that have suffered from underinvestment in the past.”
Westchester County Parks Commissioner Kathy O’Connor said: “We are focused on rebuilding and restoring our nationally accredited parks system, which is widely used by residents to maintain their physical and mental health. Park usage has grown since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are appreciative of the support we receive from the County and the County Executive.”
Human Rights Commission
The total amount allotted for the Human Rights Commission in the Budget is $1.3 million. This includes an additional investigator.
Human Rights Commission Executive Director Tejash Sanchala said: “The number of cases that the Human Rights Commission handles has increased significantly in recent years. The addition of another investigator will enable the Commission to more efficiently process and adjudicate complaints of discrimination in employment, housing, places of public accommodations and in certain hate-related matters. As a result, the Commission will be a greater resource to the community.”
Youth Bureau
Total Youth Bureau funding is $4.7 million dollars. Among the new initiatives is an expansion of the Invest-In-Kids program to $250K.
Youth Bureau Executive Director Dr. DaMia Harris-Madden said: “Investments in the Youth Bureau, and its partners, began at the inception of the Latimer administration. From the CE’s first budget to present, there has been consistent and robust support of programs such as Invest in Kids that advance our efforts to improve the overall well-being of children, youth and families. We thank the County Executive for taking action through the budget to address the increased need for positive youth development opportunities.”
REUTERS reported Saturday evening the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing millions of Americans to still receive free tests, vaccines and treatments, according to two administration officials.
The possibility of the private market taking over vaccine distribution at their prices prompted the decision to extend the state of emergency.
Daily U.S. cases are down to an average of nearly 41,300 as of Nov. 9. 335 people a day are still dying from COVID, according to the latest U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.
On Thursday, Westchester County recorded 186 new cases of covid according to the New York Covid 19 tracker. After 5 days this last November 6 through 10, the county recorded lab-validated postive covid cases of 973, continuing to average 200 new cases a day (194) on track for a fifteenth consecutive week of 1,000 new persons testing positive a week.
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Reuters reports U.S. cases are projected to rise slowly 70,000 a day by February, from students students and indoor socializing. returning to schools and cold weather-related indoor gatherings.
Reuters outlined the looming problem of vaccines if you can pay for them in stark terms:
” ‘The biggest motivation from a policy perspective is ensuring a smooth transition to the commercial market and the challenge of unraveling the multiple protections that have been put in place,” said Dr. Jen Kates, senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation. “Extending the PHE provides more time to manage that.’
The biggest challenge is uninsured people, she said. Most Americans have government-backed or private health insurance and are expected to pay nothing for COVID vaccines and boosters, though they will likely incur some out-of-pocket costs for tests and treatments.
Uninsured children will also continue to get free vaccines, but it is unclear how they and some 25 million uninsured adults will avoid paying the full cost of tests and treatments, and how those adults will get vaccines.
Their number is set to grow with the emergency expiring. HHS estimates that as many as 15 million people will lose health coverage after a requirement by Congress that state Medicaid programs keep people continuously enrolled expires and states return to normal patterns for enrollment. “
JOHN MARINO OF WESTCHESTER TALK RADIO AND LONGTIME SPORTS PERSONALITY (WPCNR PHOTO)
WPCNR LETTER TICKER. November 12, 2022:
My sincerest thanks to Commissioner Kathleen O’ Connor, First Deputy Commissioner Peter Tartaglia, Deputy Commissioner Neil Squillante, Recreation Supervisor Kevin Cook and the entire Parks, Recreation and Conservation Department team for the most special award I received on behalf of the Westchester Sports Hall-of-Fame in recognition of the almost two decades I served as Master-of-Ceremonies for the Hall’s annual induction ceremonies.
It was a thrill to be honored along and share the stage with the Class of 2022 at the historic Glen Island Harbor Club in New Rochelle on Thursday, November 10th. The Hall welcomed a most unique class into Westchester County sports immortality:
Sprain Lake Golf Course of Yonkers legendary Pro Tom Avezzano, iconic Lakeland High School of Shrub Oak and Syracuse University lacrosse star Ric Beardsley, renowned Journal News and lohud.com Photojournalist Frank Becerra Jr., who joins his father, the incomparable Frank Becerra Sr. in the Hall, along with fabled White Plains High School two-way lineman, Valhalla High School state champion football coach and noted boxing trainer Ron Berlingo.
The festivities were hosted by our new Master-of-Ceremonies at the Hall, LocaLive Networks Founder and Vice President of Digital Content Kevin Devaney, Jr.
Again congratulations to my fellow honorees, the Class of 2022. Having witnessed so much sports history around Westchester the past 35 years — since 1987, wow! — I’m looking forward to being on hand for so much more that’s still to come.
WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE From the Covid 19 NY TRACKER.Observations and Analysis by John F. Bailey November 12, 2022:
New covid cases in Westchester County continued to be reported by lab-verified positives at the rate of 200 new infections a day with 190 cases Sunday the 6th; 205, Monday, the 7th; 212, Nov.8 and 180 Wednesday the 9th.. an average of 197 new cases a day, with Thursday figures due today from the Tracker.
This does not figure in how much the heavy election day turnout will generate new infections.
The pace of infections in Westchester is well ahead of the fall 2021 rate of infections.
The 14th consecutive week of increase in covid infections last week compared to 2021 had 1,356 new infections–the highest number of new infections since each of the last three weeks of September after Labor Day, One new infected persons is currently infecting 1.2 persons which means in my view the persons coming down with covid are getting infected, showing symptoms faster within 2 days. Why? because midweek infection figures (2 days after a weekend ends) are up.
This week if the trend continues we may have over 1,400 new cases compared to 1, 356 last week.
It is out there and spreading double the rate Westchester County spread infections last fall meaning Westchester may be faced with high in cases in mid-December compared to last December. Children under 5 are particularly being affected.
Hospitalizations in New York City for children 0 to 4 with respiratory infections covid are now at the peak of the highest number of hospitalizations at any time during covid according to this chart by Dr. Jay Varma.
THE COUNCIL OF NEIGHBORHOOD ASSOCIATIONS ANNOUNCED TODAY MAYOR THOMAS ROACH OF WHITE PLAINS WILL APPEAR AS SPECIAL GUEST AT THE CNA DECEMBER 13, FOR ONE HOUR WITH THE MAYOR, 7 TO 8 PM AT EDUCATION HOUSE. THE CNA NOTES IN THEIR ANNOUNCEMENT: “There is a lot going on in the city and a lot coming d own the pike.The recent announcement regarding the potential re-development of the Galleria property will be a game changer for this city and so much more.”
