MID HUDSON COUNTIES SURGE IN MIDWEEK. NYC , 1,433 LONG ISLAND, 658 2 WKS POST LABOR DAY
WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from NY STATE COVID TRACKER. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey. September 18, 2023:
Post Labor Day new covid cases continue to run 15% ahead of September new covid cases a year ago on pace for over 6,000 new covid cases by October 1.
The 1,045 new covid cases the week after Labor Day spread the disease to 901 persons through last Thursday an average of 209 a day, or 1,463 for the week, pending Friday and Saturday case positives. The state has a 3-day gap in reporting weekly results.
Wesrchester antigen lab confirmed positives are boosting daily numbers over PCR Lab verified tests by 41%.indicating the number persons out there with covid who have tested positive may be running ahead of 40% and have not verified their positive home antigen test yet. It is my concern this may be significantly higher.
This antigen test unknown gap (the numbers of persons in the county walking around knowing they have a positive antigen test result but refusing for whatever reason to confirm the positive or find out if the positive is false make projections probably in my opinion, turn out larger than just the daily confirmed PCR and Antigen test positives we are now seeing reported on 3-day delay by the state.
Through September 14 positives both PCR verified and Antigen Tests (verified) hit 841 Thursday 168 positives a day. That puts Westchester on pace for a 3rd straight week of increased cases in September for a total of 1,177, 132 new cases ahead of the week of September 3-9 which totaled 1,045. That is a per week increase of 13% more cases a week.
With 1,045 possibly infecting 1,177 persons this week, it means every new case of covid in the county may be infecting 1 other person. This means the disease is not declining in spreading it is keeping its spread rate steady.
Disturbing is the number of midweek spread in the other 6 counties in the Mid-Hudson region:
Orange County reported 110 new cases Thursday.
With Westchester far and away the covid infection leader with 167 lastThursday
Adding to concern on my part that Westchester is going to continue to grow in covid cases is the 17.2 daily new case rate per 100,000 people (Westchester has 10.04 segments of 100,000 persons)erage from September 7 to 14.
At 17.2 persons new covid cases per 100,000 people, that means Westchester is getting 172 new cases a day;1,208 a week, and 4,835 a month if that daily rate stays where it is.
In New York City, Manhattan last Thursday had 269 covid cases; Brooklyn,413, Queens 414, The Bronx 254, Staten Island, 83 for a total of 1,433.
Long Island, Nassau and Suffolk Counties had 658 new cases combined in one day.
Locally, White Plains Hospital continued its weeks long trend of over 60% of persons admitted to beds in the hospital and finding that 60% of new admissions have covid.
From September 1 through September 15, Friday, of 167 hospital bed admissions, according to the New York State Health Department, 111 were found to have covid. The percentage of persons testing positive for covid after official admission was 66%
Without weekly figures on school infections which is not required by the State Education Department there is no reliable consistent data on the spread of covid cases in the school districts in Westchester County.